Until recently, the best estimates for the number of HIV+ Indians was 5.7 million, although estimates ranged from 3.4 million to 9.4 million. However, a new study puts the number of Indians with HIV/AIDS at roughly half of the previous estimate:
Early analysis of the figures suggests that India really has between two and three million victims, according to several sources, including American epidemiologists who know the data and the Health Ministry here.The lower figure for India would imply that India has managed to keep its epidemic more like that of the United States, in that the virus circulates mostly within high-risk groups. In India’s case, these are prostitutes and their clients — especially truckers; men who have sex with men; and people who inject drugs, especially in the northeast, on the borders with Myanmar. [Link]
The big improvement in the quality of the numbers comes from the third National Family Health Survey:
The third National Family Health Survey was a gigantic exercise in logistics. Research organizations had to interview 124,385 women and 74,369 men in 3,849 villages and urban centers across India…. NFHS-3 was the first large scale nationwide survey to collect dried blood samples for HIV testing. Nearly 110,000 women and men were tested for HIV and more than 200,000 adults and young children were tested for anemia. [Link]
One surprise result of the new numbers- infection rates are much higher in the South than in the North:
But Ashok Alexander, director of Avahan, the Indian AIDS program of the Gates Foundation, says that while “it’s good news that overall the numbers are down, the real danger of this is it masks the real prevalence in one third of India: the south.” The study … found that infection rates in southern India are significantly higher than in the north of the country. [Link]