On the cheap

Lately it seems like everywhere you look people are starting to move up as fast as George and Weezy. Prices on typically expensive goods are coming down so that companies can make a play for the disposable income of the world’s vast middle class. Monday’s L.A. Times brought us word of a ridiculously priced car out of India:

Tata Motors Ltd. is set to unveil the world’s cheapest car as early as January as it takes the growing interest in low-cost vehicles to a new extreme.

The Indian carmaker will launch its $2,467 vehicle by the third quarter of 2008 and may unveil it at January’s Auto Expo in New Delhi, Managing Director Ravi Kant said.

Separately, Tata Motors is developing a line of small hatchbacks and mid-size sedans to be introduced next year. India produces 1.3 million cars a year. With the market growing at 10% to 12% per year, this could reach 3 million within a decade.

The four-door car — a pet project of Tata Group Chairman Ratan Tata — would be the cheapest by far in its class. The current cheapest, the Maruti 800 produced by Suzuki Motor Corp., sells for more than $4,000. [Link]

Just to clarify, I don’t think that a really cheap car is ridiculous. No. What I find crazy is the exact price. Somewhere there was a room full of marketers that decided that $2,467 was the exactly right price for this car! I mean, why not $2,499? But this is going to be a hooptie right?

Competitors are skeptical about the price and quality of the car, which the group says will have a 600-cubic-centimeter engine and come in a range of models.

However, [Managing Director Ravi ] Kant said: “It will be a good-looking car which you will want to purchase…” [Link]

Well, okay then. The Christian Science Monitor had an article last week that hinted at how owners of such a cheap car might immediately seek to pimp their ride:

While its materialistic glamour revolution is still in its infancy, the new capitalist India is all about keeping up with the Kumars. At all socioeconomic levels, Indian shoppers are becoming more “aspirational,” using their new wealth to buy status in a country where social cachet is a vital commodity.

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Radically private water

When I was little, I went to India for my Mamaji’s wedding. At that point, we still drank the water, although it was very the last time we did so. I got very sick and lost enough weight that my ribs were visible. In fact, I became so emaciated that I could tickle my bottom few ribs from the inside, much to the horror of my parents. To make things worse, it was hot in Amritsar that year, over 100 degrees, and we were in an old house without air conditioning.

Throughout it all, as the adored foreign child, I was coddled and comforted. It wasn’t that bad for me. Still, it gave me some compassion for those who have to drink water far worse, such as the 2 million children who die each year for want of proper water and sanitation.

The big policy debate over water privatization seems to have ground to a halt. In poor countries, governments do a lousy job of getting water to their people (maybe 30% of Indians have access to clean water), and while de facto privatization proceeds apace, formal privatization schemes seem to have done poorly enough to reduce earlier corporate enthusiasm.

Still, two of the more imaginative schemes I’ve seen in the past year have argued for extreme privatization, decentralizing the provision of clean water down to the sub-village, or even personal level.

For example, the Lifestraw is designed to give each person their own personal water purification system:

… a plastic tube with seven filters: graduated meshes with holes as fine as 6 microns (a human hair is 50 to 100 microns), followed by resin impregnated with iodine and another of activated carbon. It can be worn around the neck and lasts a year.

Lifestraw isn’t perfect, but it filters out at least 99.99 percent of many parasites and bacteria, the demons in most fatal cases of diarrhea. [Link]

The original Lifestraw was field tested amongst the earthquake refugees in Kashmir.

Although the idea is pretty cool, it has its detractors. Critics argue that there is no market for such a product – that at $3.50 (or possibly even $2), it is still multiple days work to pay for each person’s straw, and it still only lasts a year. They also argue that it doesn’t reduce the long distances people have to travel to get water, thus reducing its appeal, and that local water projects are more effective because of economies of scale [Link].

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A New Set of Wheels

A fascinating group of news stories discusses the goal many auto companies have of building the next generation of really cheap cars for the 3rd world mass market.

Singing and Dancing into the Future

Businessweek reports –

Renault-Nissan Chief Executive Carlos Ghosn is betting that for autos, the magic number is under $3,000. At a plant-opening ceremony in India Apr. 4, he was already talking up the industry’s next challenge: a future model that would sport a sticker price as low as $2,500–about 40% less than the least expensive subcompact currently on the market. Renault-Nissan is the first global automaker to take up the gauntlet thrown down in 2003 by India’s Tata Motors, which plans to launch a $2,500 car next year.

India is target #1 on all fronts — design, manufacturing, marketing, and, of course, the ultimate consumer. Instead of looking outside for economic growth, this is a story of internally sourced, created, and most importantly executed growth.

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More Edumacation

A great OpEd quoted (in full?) at the IndianEconomy blog talks about the “Unknown Education Revolution” in India –

Ain’t IIT But It Gets the Job Done

Walking around the hot summer streets of Sangam Vihar–Delhi’s largest slum colony sprawled over 150 acres and home to 4 lakh people–in 2005, Aditi Bhargava noticed that almost every street had a school…These schools were often just holes in the wall or a room with a few benches populated by eager children.

And in case you’re wondering if these schools are any good –

Studies carried out in India all share the common conclusion that private-school students outperform their government-school counterparts. For example, in a 2005 Delhi study [11], James Tooley found that children in low-budget unrecognized private schools did 246% better than government school children on a standardized English test, with around 80% higher average marks in mathematics and Hindi…more than 80% of government-school teachers send their own children to a private school…

As noted in an earlier post about private education in India, when it comes to capitalism the poor often have much to teach the rich. In this particular case, the lessons from the piece seem directly targeted at some of the biggest dogmas which dominate education reform debates here in the US. Continue reading

The economics of dating

Two stories have caught my attention in the past two days, and both deal with everyone’s favorite subject: dating! Or rather, I should say the stories are more about the lack of suitable mating options that has resulted from the intersection of two topics we blog about quite often on SM: 1) the growing new economies of India and China; and 2) the messed up sex ratio resulting from female foeticide and infanticide.

Yesterday, PRI’s Marketplace sent a reporter in to the heart of “Parent’s Matchmaker’s Corner” in Shanghai. The corner is basically a trading floor where worried Chinese parents gather to trade biodata on their late-twentysomething children, mostly without the knowledge of said children. The story was set in Shanghai but it might as well have been Delhi, as almost identical market forces are at work. Among the many great insights (some humorous) in the radio story (please listen) are the following:

1) Chinese A-list men date B-list women because they don’t want someone as smart as them. They want a trophy wife.

2) Many Chinese A-list men go abroad to seek their fortune, thus restricting supply.

3) Chinese A-list women get screwed because they are in high demand (since there is an overall shortage of women), but only have B and C-list men to choose from.

4) A-list women throw themselves into work and/or fool around waiting for an A-list man that might never materialize.

5) B and C-list men grow increasingly bitter and frustrated because all the B and C-list women have traded up and the A-list women only want them for their bods.

This chain of events is set into motion for two reasons: 1) there is a skewed sex ratio; and 2) in the “new” economies you have as many or more educated women as men. Again, everything above seems to apply to India as well. You’ll also note that in America reason #2 is already applicable, but what saves us from the same spiral is that we don’t perform sex selection.

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Trying to save the corn tortilla

I’m not sure what the hell is going on with the world these days. First there was a daal shortage. More recently, word has gotten out that the corn tortilla population is in decline and at serious risk:

MANY DEMOCRATS and some Republicans applauded President Bush’s State-of-the-Union proposal for a 20 percent reduction in gasoline use over the next 10 years, largely through greater reliance on ethanol.

Bush’s idea, however, is adding corn-based fuel to protests in Mexico City. Existing federal laws that mandate ethanol in U.S. gasoline have diverted trainloads of corn from America’s food supply-chain to ethanol factories. This boosted U.S. corn prices nearly 80 percent in 2006.

That’s bad enough if you buy corn on the cob for a weekend barbecue. But it’s much worse if you are a poor Mexican surviving on corn tortillas. A kilo (2.2 pounds) of tortillas recently has shot up 55 percent, from 5.5 to 8.5 pesos. Poor Mexicans are not taking this sitting down. [Link]

Look, I know that wheat tortillas are “healthier” for you and that flour tortillas are less soggy. But come on. Nothing but a hot corn tortilla smothered in enchilada sauce should be wrapped around spinach and cheese filling. Via BoingBoing we now learn that “famed” investor Vinod Khosla is going to build an ethanol plant in Georgia that will use waste wood instead of corn to produce the fuel:

We knew it was coming. Vinod Khosla has finally made a bold move to back up industry-wide speculation that cellulosic ethanol would soon emerge as the next phase in ethanol production. The surprise is that wood would be the feedstock of choice given the vast headstart of corn-based biorefineries in the country and the obvious synergy of basing corn stover conversion technologies near sugar fermentation plants.

However, the high energy potential of wood cellulose, the ready availability of cheap waste, and the search for a renaissance of forestry-based industries makes the announcement a welcome one to the “nation’s woodpile” in the southeastern states. [Link]

To put it more simply, why kill tortillas to make fuel for your car when instead you could use the scrap wood from all the post consumer waste you produce? I for one am glad that investors like Khosla have the foresight to pump money into alternative sources of fuel while big oil keeps reaping record profits from our pockets.

And before anyone accuses me of being a bad Indian, I like rotis too.

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Hungry children failed by state and market

This is a week of good news and bad. The good news is that Goldman Sachs thinks the Indian economy is growing even faster than previously expected:

India could overtake Britain and have the world’s fifth largest economy within a decade as the country’s growth accelerates, a new report says… By 2050 India’s economy could be larger even than America’s, only China’s will be bigger, the bank predicts. [Link]

The bad news is that child malnutrition rates are still startling high in India. This week the PM felt a need to deal out thapars:

Our prevalent rate of under-nutrition in the 0-6 age group remains one of the highest in the world,” Mr Singh said. “These are startling figures and the situation calls for urgent action.” [Link]

The situation remains astonishingly dire:

Last year the UN children’s agency, Unicef, said that the average malnutrition rate in some Indian states – such as densely populated Uttar Pradesh – was 40%. That is higher than sub-Saharan Africa where it is around 30%, Unicef said. [Link]

… Unicef report said half of the world’s under-nourished children live in South Asia….”South Asia has higher levels of child under-nutrition than Sub-Saharan Africa, but Sub-Saharan Africa has higher rates of child mortality…” [Link]

Most striking is the fact that the economic growth of the past 15 years hasn’t necessarily translated into better child nutrition, and that malnutrition has actually risen in some places:

A recent health ministry survey said that the number of undernourished children below the age of three had actually risen in some states since the late 1990s, despite higher incomes and rapid economic growth. [Link]

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Sudhir Venkatesh Runs the Voodoo Down

Venkatesh.jpgThe Wire meets academia” is how Slate describes Off the Books: The Underground Economy of the Urban Poor, the fascinating new book by Sudhir Alladi Venkatesh. Here’s Emily Bazelon’s summary:

Venkatesh, who is now a professor of sociology and African-American studies at Columbia, spent 1995 to 2003 following the money in 10 square blocks of the Chicago ghetto. He finds an intricate underground web. In it are dealers and prostitutes—and also pastors who take their money, nannies who don’t report income, unlicensed cab drivers, off-the-books car mechanics, purveyors of home-cooked soul food, and homeless men paid to sleep outside stores. Venkatesh’s insight is that the neighborhood doesn’t divide between “decent” and “street”—almost everyone has a foot in both worlds.

Readers of Freakonomics will remember Venkatesh as the University of Chicago graduate student whose fieldwork in the ghetto led him to realize why, for instance, drug dealers still live with their mothers. But his really important previous credit is his first book, American Project (2000), which intricately described the life within, and the social and physical disintegration of, several large blocks of South Side housing projects. Like Mitchell Duneier’s Sidewalk (1999), which investigated the social and economic life of the brothers who sell used books and miscellany on Sixth Avenue in Greenwich Village, Venkatesh’s projects are urban sociology of the most compelling type, and well written to boot.

Yesterday Sudhir was on the Brian Lehrer show on WNYC [disclosure: I work for WNYC] and you can hear the conversation, punctuated by some interesting listener calls, here. But all y’all macacas might also enjoy taking a look at the prologue and first chapter of the book, which Harvard University Press makes available on its website. Here’s a quick excerpt from the prologue that points out, among other things, a desi angle: Continue reading

Capitalism: Gujus vs. Bengalis

Prashant points us at yet another interesting, Desi economic history piece by Gautam Bastian. In it, Gautam quotes a provocative Telegraph OpEd that discusses a surprising diversity in the Desi Intellegentsia’s attitudes towards the market. Instead of the uniform, Pavlovian rejection Uncle Milt experienced, the Telegraph’s Ramachandra Guha points at a specific braindrain of Guju econ knowledge –

Back in the Sixties, it used to be said that India’s most successful export were economists. Our economy was resolutely insulated from the rest of the world, but our economists occupied high posts in famous universities in Europe and America. Later, the joke was amended to say that the reason India’s economy was mediocre was because its economists were world-class. No South Korean was a professor of political economy at Cambridge; no Malaysian had been awarded the Nobel Prize. But their economies grew at an impressive 8 per cent, whereas ours stayed stuck at 3.5 per cent, also known as the “Hindu” rate of growth.

My own theory about Indian economists is more specific and hopefully less facetious. It runs as follows; Gujarati economists place faith in the market, while Bengali economists are prone to trust the state. In the Fifties, when P.C. Mahalonobis drafted the Soviet-inspired second five year plan, A.D. Shroff responded by starting the Forum of Free Enterprise. In the Sixties and the Seventies, about the only economist of pedigree advocating Indian integration with the world economy was the Gujarati, Jagdish Bhagwati. He was opposed by an array of Marxists, many of whom (naturally) were Bengali.

As Gautam notes, several prominent thinkers have attacked the the broad question of “if intellectuals are so smart, how come so many have been so wrong about markets?” (Heck, little old me, in my blogging youth tried to add on to Nozick). But by slicing and dicing across socio-cultural lines within India, Guha takes the question in a different direction. While I’d heard the stereotype of Bengali Marxists (keep in mind that my homestate – Kerala – has its fair share as well) I wasn’t aware that Guju’s were responsible for the counter pole. Biz friendly Gujus, eh? I suppose many stereotypes start with a grain of truth somewhere….

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Muhammad Yunus receives his Nobel Prize

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The award ceremony of the 2006 Nobel Peace Prize took place today. Muhammad Yunus was accompanied by nine village women, elected representatives of Grameen Bank’s borrowers. The full text of his speech is an interesting read. He re-tells the story of the founding of the bank and describes the different ways it has branched out, from its program for beggars to its mobile phone, food, and medical care initiatives. He also gives a sense of his personal economic philosophy, which he grounds in an embrace of the free market and globalization. It’s an argument similar to that made for “double bottom line” or “triple bottom line” investment and accounting, which seeks social or environmental value creation along with financial profit. It’s a good read; you can find it here. Continue reading