The news out of Myanmar/Burma keeps getting worse. 
On Thursday evening the British paper The Sun is blaring the following headline: THE death toll in cyclone-ravaged Burma could hit 500,000 – more than TWICE the total killed by the Boxing Day Tsunami. The biggest problem right now is that the effort to fly in precious water and food are being thwarted by the paranoid military junta that runs the country and is too suspicious and inept to grant visas to aid workers:
With up to 1.5 million people in Myanmar now believed to be facing the threat of starvation and disease and with relief efforts still largely stymied by the country’s isolationist military rulers, frustrated United Nations officials all but demanded Thursday that the government open its doors to supplies and aid workers…“The situation is profoundly worrying,” said the United Nations official in charge of the relief effort, John Holmes, speaking in unusually candid language for a diplomat. “They have simply not facilitated access in the way we have a right to expect…” [Link]
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p>The Tsunami was unimaginably bad…BUT at least the rest of the world wasn’t as impotent then as we are now. Considering the massive devastation in 2004, the world actually responded relatively quickly to minimize deaths after the actual event (certainly faster than the Hurricane Katrina response). This however, is just frustrating. Children are dying of thirst because visas aren’t being granted! For my part I am doing what I can. I found out that the relief organization CARE International was one of the first to have boots on the ground in Myanmar since they had an office there. They are actually disbursing aid. I also know that the first of the checks that our Uncle Sam is sending our way to help with the U.S. economic recovery will be hitting our bank accounts this week. I know it flies in the face of a sound economic strategy to send money meant to boost our economy straight overseas, but I’m willing to upset those “elite” economists. I just sent a chunk of change to CARE. I’ll just pretend there was no rebate. UNICEF is a good bet too.
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p>Part of what is so aggravating about this situation is that India actually gave Myanmar a warning about the cyclone. If the junta had simply communicated that warning effectively then at least some lives could have been saved.
Indian meteorologists have said they had given neighbouring Myanmar 48 hours’ warning before a cyclone slammed into the country, killing more than 22,000 people and leaving over 40,000 missing.
The comments from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) came amid US allegations that Myanmar’s military junta failed to warn its citizens of the impending storm.
“Forty-eight hours before (tropical cyclone) Nargis struck, we indicated its point of crossing (landfall), its severity and all related issues to Myanmarese agencies,” IMD spokesman B.P. Yadav told AFP Tuesday.
The department is mandated by the United Nations World Meteorological Organisation to track cyclones in the region.
“Our job is to give warnings and in advance, and we take pride in saying that we gave warnings much, much in advance and there was enough time to take precautionary measures such as evacuation,” he added. [Link]
Not only will untold thousands die in Myanmar, it will also virtually wipe out their precious rice exports sending already high prices even higher. Thus, to some extent, hunger will radiate outward from the Myanmar tragedy:
Cyclone damage to rice crops and inventories in Myanmar’s Irrawaddy delta and other areas may impair its exports of the grain in 2008 and further tighten the world rice market, the U.N. food agency said on Wednesday.<
p>The storm, which battered five states accounting for 65 percent of the former Burma’s rice output, may trigger “localised food shortages” and require imports from neighbours, it said. [Link]
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p>NASA has posted some satellite imagery which shows the region before and after the cyclone hit.
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p>Just what is Than Shwe, the “leader” of Myanmar thinking? Unfortunately, he may be getting advice from his fortune tellers:
A fortuneteller’s warning that blood would spill in the city of Yangon prompted the general in 2005 to shift the country’s capital from there to Naypyidaw, a jungle outpost 300 kilometers (186 miles) inland, said Irrawaddy News, a weekly that covers Myanmar from Thailand….“The amount of superstitious beliefs, the following of soothsayers make it difficult to understand why they act in a certain way,” said Christopher Roberts, a post-doctoral fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies who specializes in Myanmar politics. [Link]
If any readers have other suggestions for how one can aid the people of Myanmar, let’s here it.
Support the US govt. initiative to fly over without permission and drop relief package. Tough times and stupid juntas call for tough decisions.
I agree. Wondering if you would have agreed to a similar endeavour during ‘Katrina’.
I think you are trying to sneak in an “all-or-nothing” conception of sovereignty here. I’m not buying it. Dropping supplies to help survivors in Burma now does not present the same questions as would, say, South Korean efforts to drop supplies into the USSR after a disaster there in, say, 1986.
why not? if one is acceptable then the other is also acceptable. If human suffering knows no borders, then the same reasons used to help Burma is good enough to help citizens of another nation. During a natural calamity I am all for help in Burma and in the USA / USSR. Different set of rules for natural calamities in USA / Russia / China?
No, you’re pivoting far too much on the assumption that eithern”sovereignty matters” or “sovereignty doesn’t matter.” What matters isn’t sovereignty, but rather political legitimacy. The Burmese regime has about zero. China/USSR have/had a small amount, India has quite a bit more.
burma is a barracks state. it is somewhat like north korea. let’s keep the parameters in perspective….
also: re sovereignty, you guys know that large parts of burma aren’t under central gov. control anyhow, right? e.g., golden triangle, etc.?
Nice points in #’s 6 & 7, Razib!!
Do you lurkers suppose that this cyclone will inspire the political will of the people to uprise against the junta? NOTE: One of the motivating factors for the overthrow of the government of East Pakistan was the central government (then based in West Pakistan) inability/refusal to help out the victims of East Pakistan, due to a cyclone.
Same way, I hope that the people of Burma/Myanmar will uprise against the junta and become a free and demilitarized nation. Why do they need a military anyways? They don’t have any enemies.
yes, during a natural calamity, borders dont matter. Or do they ? And no legitimate government should refuse any assistance to help its citizens. It is all hands on deck – not a time to be bickering about where the border begins. I am all for a airdrop of essential supplies regardless of the nation (burma / north korea/ usa/ ussr / india).
Yes, we hope so! Your Bangladesh example is a good one–there are others, including PRI’s defeat in Mexico after a major earthquake and Somoza losing power (though to even worse people–so, a cautionary note!) in Nicaragua after a volcanic eruption/earthquake. The utter cynicism of the Burmese gov’t (with respect to letting their people die rather than let in “subversive” foreign aid workers) is indicative of what most governments have done for most of human history–it’s a sign of human progress that we’re disgusted by it today, and that most gov’ts around the world wouldn’t act this callously.
My whole point is that borders don’t, in and of themselves, matter a whit. What we should respect, though, are politically legitimate units of humanity, and not be so quick to screw with them. Burma doesn’t pass the laugh aloud test on the latter point. India certainly does, though, and that’s why my quick view: i.e., we should do food drops in Burma regardless of what the gov’t says, would be a closer call in India (which way such a call would go in the context of India, would, of course, depend on the circumstances–there are times where we should respect Indian sovereignty, and (hypothetical) circumstances where we shouldn’t–in other words, India gets some points on the scale for legitimacy of its government, whilst Burma does not). I’m not giving the US or Australia a 100% legitimacy rating, either.
I agree. I have financial interests closely tied with the Burmese. so in one sense, I do want this resolved.
Yes, we hope so! Your Bangladesh example is a good one–there are others, including PRI’s defeat in Mexico after a major earthquake and Somoza losing power (though to even worse people–so, a cautionary note!) in Nicaragua after a volcanic eruption/earthquake. The utter cynicism of the Burmese gov’t (with respect to letting their people die rather than let in “subversive” foreign aid workers) is indicative of what most governments have done for most of human history–it’s a sign of human progress that we’re disgusted by it today, and that most gov’ts around the world wouldn’t act this callously.
i don’t think the analogy with bangladesh captures the differences. the cyclone was a factor, perhaps a precipitating one, but there were many other issues. the language movement, punjabi racism, geographic separation, anger from the local intelligensia, india’s interests and involvement. there was a perfect storm, excuse the pun, which came together. for all the undemocratic phases during the pakistani state i doubt it was ever as authoritarian as burma is now. that’s why i brought up the analogy to north korea; it is likely millions died in the 1990s, but no revolt, right?
i recently read a few books on burma. it seems that the military has turned into a separate caste or society; its interests are simply not the same as the whole nation. the military takes care of its own, ergo, the men with guns don’t have much of a common interest with popular sentiment. how are you going to rebel against the army when they have all the guns? there are separatism movements which coalesced around ethnic minorities which have been around for decades and they haven’t gotten traction.
don’t get me wrong, i hope that overthrow does occur, that some junior officers take charge. the probability is certainly greater, so the cyclone might have a silver lining, as callous as that sounds. but i wouldn’t bet on it.
Razib, Very nice point. I would be cautious about assuming that the peasants in Burma don’t have guns. They certainly do right over the border in Tibet (which kind of scares me, b/c I don’t see a way that the Tibetans can even fight their way to independence), but, back to Burma-don’t forget your post #7–a fair amount of $$ has been going around here, and I’m not convinced the army has any loyalty to the junta–we shall see. . . . .
very good presentation.keep it up.
While authoritarian regimes such as Burma tend to resist international aid in times of natural disaster, democracies do not have 100% clean records. India turned away help after the tsunami, when it could have used the help. Abhi mentions the U.S. response to Katrina – inept federal response compounded by the fact that with three levels of government, no one knew where to turn for aid or instruction. IN 2003, France suffered thousands of deaths in a heat wave, when the French government could not get its doctors to come back from vacation(keep this mind when holding up the French health care system).
Given Burma’s small size, and the fact that the junta controls all the levers of power – it is unlikely that such a calamity will lead to any sort lasting political change.
You can donate through Google. Just go to google.com and click the link asking you to support cyclone relief efforts under the search bar.
http://www.google.com/myanmarcyclone/
100% of your donation goes to the organizations listed. There’s also an interesting Google Map with a lot of info (you guys might want to actually post that map).
Just wanted to draw everyone’s attention to the referendum on the constitution which is being held on May 10th (tomorrow, SE Asia time). Many here believe that the SPDC will let aid workers in only after the referendum has taken place, and the govt will probably use supplies to bribe the Burmese people to vote in their favour. The referendum will entrench military rule in Burma and it does not recognise Aung San Suu Kyi and her NLD party.
Airdrops are a possibility, (how do you know the people who need it are going to get it). I think some of the worse hit areas you can only get to by air. Working with countries such as china that are aloud into the country. Getting aid through those countries and getting it through FAST.
If only the UN had a backbone.
Thanks for posting on this, Abhi.
What’s most frustrating is tons of food enough to feed and supplies for 95K people sitting at the airport and the Burmese government won’t do anything to help the people. At the end of the day I’m curious to understand what the vested interest is for the government to continue with the situation in Burma. I know China has vested interest in Burma, one of the bigger roadblocks to finding a solution but other than the basics about the military rule and unrest since the 60s I don’t know much about Burma. Could someone shed some light….Razib? Kush T.
Razib? Kush T.
Like most things in life………..it is about money.
Burma/ Myanmar is:
a) One of the corner of Golden Triangle of opium production b) Was once the largest exporter of rice c) Has lots of natural gas, and it goes back to Burmah Oil Company (1800s) d) Precious stones like ruby.
Was once the richest country in the region, and now, it is …………..and military wants to control the resources I mentioned above.
Thank you Kush as always you come thru. That is what I didn’t garner from my reading. The natural resources. What are some of the major players that do business with Burma besides China?
But what a hairy situation. Too bad the US is mired in too much military might for all the wrong reasons elsewhere to step in and help like they did in Bosnia (that one counted…Iraq doesn’t)
JOAT:>>What’s most frustrating is tons of food enough to feed and supplies for 95K people sitting at the airport
There’s no evidence that it’s food that’s in the crates on the tarmac. There’s no guarantee that those crates don’t contain guns and ammunition to aid the dissidents who want to overthrow the junta by force and overtake the country at this time of crisis.
There – I said it with a serious, straight face.
But the US government took the initiative to fly over and drop stuff over Iraq. And nobody liked it!
M. Nam
What are some of the major players that do business with Burma besides China?
All of them……….directly or indirectly.
Until few years ago, almost all major US and EU energy companies were in Burma. Chevron is sill there, so is Total of France (grandfather clause).
Now, it is through proxies or new players in the game, Chinese, Indian, and South Korean companies. More here.
Hi there
I am a regular visitor here and I would like to promote some links of the international NGOs where good hearted folks can donate some of their hard earned money for a good cause. You can click on any site below to donate from as low as 10 Dollars and that small amount which can make a difference, you can save a life. Thanks………
Save the Children (UK) Have launched a £5million appeal http://www.savethechildren.org.uk/en/32_5455.htm
Medicins Sans Frontieres (MSF (NL) http://www.msf.org/msfinternational/invoke.cfm?objectid=BD72415A-15C5-F00A-25E67A241B05BAA0&component=toolkit.article&method=full_html working in Yangon area including Hlaingthaya, Dalla and Twante
Merlin http://www.merlin.org.uk/Lists/News-Detail.aspx?id=687 £500,000 appeal Medical team sent to Laputta Have been active in Irrawaddy Division for some time
Care http://www.careinternational.org.uk/CARE%20APPEALS%20TO%20BRITISH%20PUBLIC%20AS%20DEATH%20TOLL%20FROM%20CYCLONE%20NARGIS%20RISES%20+11253.twl Currently working on needs in South Dagon and Thaketa
World Vision https://www.worldvision.org.uk/server.php?show=nav.127 You can identify your donation to their Myanmar cyclone appeal
International Federation of the Red Cross http://www.ifrc.org/Docs/News/pr08/2108.asp Have been working to build the grassroots capacity of the Myanmar Red Cross Society which has a network of volunteers throughout the country
Not an NGO, but UNICEF is also organised and active throughout the country, and appealing for funds
http://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/myanmar_43788.html
On lighter note how about contacting Rambo stationed in Thailand ?
Maybe the junta is checking for ‘religious pamphlets’ in the food donations.
JOAT, Burma also has an ethnic Indian population. A number of these guys work as domestic helpers at the homes of ethnic Indians in Bangkok. From what they have told us, Indians are perhaps at the bottom of the economic chain in the country (Burma) and the only way to escape penury is to make the journey to Bangkok. When they started moving to Thailand about 10-15 years ago, these burmese were caught in a legal limbo as they were deemed illegal aliens in the country. Now that Thailand has relaxed labor regulations, the employers of these domestic helpers can get employment permits, which in turn has helped eliminate abuse and exploitation. Some of the more entreprenuerial Burmese have started to run tailor shops in resort towns of Pattaya and Phuket and from what I hear they are making a good living.
BTW, the last Mughal emperor Bahadur Shah Zafar is buried in Rangoon. He was exiled there by the British after the muniteers lost the 1857 War of Independence.
Google has agreed to match up to $1 million in donations.
http://www.google.com/myanmarcyclone/
More info from direct relief here: http://directrelief.org/EmergencyResponse/2008/CycloneNargisMyanmar/CycloneNargisMyanmar.aspx