Category Archives: Military

The Northwest Frontier is Getting Flatter

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StrategyPage has always had great coverage of all things military in South Asia. With all the ink and pixels being spilled about all the things going wrong on Pakistan’s unruly border with Afghanistan, Stratpage has this report of one of the tactics that’s working relatively well –

Pakistani soliders are faced with suicide attackers who “love death more than you love your 5,000-rupee salary, nude pictures of Indian actresses and liquor.” [link]; But that’s part of the plan.

The army can defeat the tribesmen in battle, but it’s guerilla warfare where the tribes have always had an edge. But that edge as disappeared as the tribes became more dependent on outside goods, moved by truck over a few roads. For thousands of years in the past, the tribes were self-sufficient in their mountain valleys. Now, the tribes suffer when the army sets up checkpoints on those roads, and forces the tribesmen to attack the better armed and disciplined soldiers…

When Thomas Friedman turned the memorable phrase, The World is Flat, he was popularizing trends in globalization that many have observed for decades. First, that in modern capitalism, economic transactions now span a larger and larger portion of the world – Pakistani tribals might not be able to place Finland or Korea on a map but they are probably getting accustomed to the convenience of a cellphone. Second – and to the consternation of the Arundhati Roy’s, Naomi Kleins, et. al., the mutually beneficial, non-violent, uncompelled transaction inherent to economic exchange necessarily impacts the cultures on both sides. Certain shared cultural norms are necessary to support a transaction and it’s nearly impossible in the long run to get the benefits of a transaction without being at least partially infected by the new culture.

Thomas Barnett, in analyzing the 21st century faultlines, placed them not between Civilizations but rather between those successfully Integrating and those Not Integrating into the global rule set – namely economics & globalziation. The activities of the Pakistani military along this faultline thus paint a great picture of what multifaceted war can / should look like. Trade has clearly run through the region for centuries but only recently does it involve such day to day pedestrian and yet inherently global goods like AA batteries, gasoline, and the like…

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Gurcharan Das on Hydaspes River

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As usual, biz has me on the road accumulating airmiles… and the usual upside is some unbroken reading time — most recently with Gurcharan Das‘s India Unbound. The book is well written and covers a wide span of Indian history and issues both from Das’s direct (and apparently quite privileged) experience as well as his clearly thorough research. Emotionally laced with optimism for the future and regret for the past, this nonfiction book struck a chord in a way I imagine some find in escapist lit. Call it Bridget Jones for the econ-minded. Amartya Sen’s comments on the book are particularly interesting.

Das tackles the age old, highly politicized question of “Why was India rich, why is it poor, and when will it be rich again?” In the dozens of cases Das presents, one particularly unique example is a famous battle of antiquity and the first large scale military interaction between Desi’s and the West – the Battle of Hydaspes River in 327 BC.

The battle pitted Alexander the Great’s Macedonians against Porus (the Hellenic version of “Rama Puru”), leader of the Kingdom of Paurava in what is now the Pakistani section of ancient Punjab. Beyond the general intrigue and war narrative – feints, maneuver, logistics, and so on – Das finds a nugget of explanatory wisdom to his question – Teamwork.

The West won the world not by the superiority of its ideas or values or religion but rather by its superiority in applying organized violence. Westerners often forget this fact, non-Westerners never do – Samuel HuntingtonDepending on your proclivities, Hydaspes may have marked the beginning of Western colonialism in India and thus the beginnings of all that ailed its 20th century history. In Samuel Huntington’s famous aphorism — “The West won the world not by the superiority of its ideas or values or religion but rather by its superiority in applying organized violence. Westerners often forget this fact, non-Westerners never do” — Alexander was perhaps the capstone ancient example. Thus, the Battle of Hydaspes River may have set the imperial template for hundreds more, longer lasting incursions over later millenia.

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I’m not a Cop, I Just Play One on TV

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In the annals of teaching, there’s an old saying that things start getting twisted when the metric becomes the goal rather than simply the metric. Sadly the warning holds in both the classroom and the field of conflict with tragic results. Stratpage reports on the bizarre case of a staged Islamic militant sting operation in Kashmir –

February 6, 2007: In Kashmir, police investigators uncovered a strange incident of murder and resume building by ambitious, and amoral, police. Two police commanders have been arrested for killing innocent Kashmiri Moslems, and claiming that the dead men were Islamic militants. The policemen enhance their promotion prospects as a result of successful encounters with Islamic militants. But new security measures on the border (Israeli night vision equipment, new sensors, UAVs) have made it much more difficult for the Islamic terrorists to get from their training camps in Pakistan, into Kashmir. The shortage of terrorists to kill led some police to go after innocent civilians. This is a publicity disaster for India, which had been gaining more support from most Kashmiris for a peace deal. The accused police will have to be prosecuted honestly and vigorously in order to calm down Kashmiri public opinion. So far, four police, including two commanders, have been arrested for three murders. There may have been many more.

Other press accounts color in more of the details –

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Emerald City Burning

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When the topic of Iraq comes up in conversations with my friends and acquaintances these days (which is sadly increasingly rare) I generally encounter one of two types of attitudes. The first one, from people on the political left and center, is one of utter exasperation and hopelessness. Not only have we lost, we’ve failed so badly that we may as well leave the stadium and get to our cars as fast as possible to avoid the traffic jam and the inevitable rowdiness soon to be displayed by the opposition. The second attitude, from those who still inexplicably cling to the right-of-center view on Iraq, is one that features mindless tu quoque utterances: “Well, at least it is better than Saddam.” What I fear, however, is that both sides are so frustrated that they no longer care what is going on over there. Even as Bush’s poll numbers plummet, more American soldiers die, and death squads roam Baghdad’s streets (something that even laymen easily predicted two full years ago), the conflict is ever evolving. It is imperative that we recognize that evolution and not think that it is simply business as usual over there. It is in fact getting far worse every day, and in historically predictable ways.

Three articles published on Sunday collectively do a fine job of bringing us all up to speed on where things stand at the present and why adding 20,000 additional troops is nothing but the final desperate maneuver of a man who was always ten steps behind. The first article comes to us from Rajiv Chandrasekaran, author of Imperial Life in the Emerald City. In it he describes how the Bush administration is rounding up all the people that it originally thought didn’t understand the situation in Iraq, and is now asking them to salvage what little they can of the mess.

Timothy M. Carney went to Baghdad in April 2003 to run Iraq’s Ministry of Industry and Minerals. Unlike many of his compatriots in the Green Zone, the rangy, retired American ambassador wasn’t fazed by chaos. He’d been in Saigon during the Tet Offensive, Phnom Penh as it was falling to the Khmer Rouge and Mogadishu in the throes of Somalia’s civil war. Once he received his Halliburton-issued Chevrolet Suburban, he disregarded security edicts and drove around Baghdad without a military escort. His mission, as he put it, “was to listen to the Iraqis and work with them.”

He left after two months, disgusted and disillusioned…

Desperate for new approaches to stifle the persistent Sunni insurgency and Shiite death squads that are jointly pushing the country toward an all-out civil war, the White House made a striking about-face last week, embracing strategies and people it once opposed or cast aside. [Link]

Now that the Neocons and “swamp drainers” have been discredited, it is time for the pragmatic adults to clean up their mess. These are the same pragmatic adults who were accused of not understanding the real threat of terrorism by the idealogues who lost their reason to fear, post 9/11. Part of the new plan for Baghdad is what the people worth listening to were saying all along. That is what makes the present bloodshed even harder to witness:

The plan unveiled by Bush last week calls for many people who lost their jobs under Bremer’s de-Baathification decree to be rehired. It calls for more Sunnis, who were marginalized under the CPA, to be brought into the government. It calls for state-owned factories to be reopened. It calls for more reconstruction personnel to be stationed outside the Green Zone. It calls for a counterinsurgency strategy that emphasizes providing security to the civilian population over transferring responsibility to local military forces.

Carney believes such measures could have been effective three years ago. Today, he worries they will be too little, too late. [Link]

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Turnaround at the IAF

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For folks who follow these sorts of things, one depressing, ongoing set of statistics from the Indian Air Force (IAF) has been it’s horrible, almost Soviet safety record. For example, back in 1999, Rediff headlined –

IAF has one of the highest accident rates in the world

The staggeringly high number of crashes involving Indian Air Force planes, especially the MiG variant fighters, is due to the lack of advance jet trainers, inadequate maintenance and inefficient technical upgradation of the fighters, say senior air force officials. The air force has lost at least 20 fighters in the last nine months, most of them being MiG-21s flown by young officers just out of the Air Force Academy.

…Air force sources admitted that IAF has one of the highest accident rates in the world and that most of the ill-fated pilots – it has lost over 85 pilots in the last one decade – were very young officers.

When it comes to the complex relationship between a military and the underlying society & culture that support it, I’m a classicist — I don’t necessarily believe the trite aphorism that Might makes Right. And I certainly don’t agree with the reverse, victim-glorifying post-modern formulation – Might makes Wrong. But I do contend that the Right can build physical Might.

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Idli in Sulaimaniya

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alencheril.jpgHere’s a military item in honor of the “surge” and courtesy of a tip from frequent commenter Maurice. It’s about the (presumably) first Indian husband and wife to both serve in the U.S. military. Sgt. Cyriac Alenchril, 35, is a supply sergeant in Iraq. Wife Fixie Alencheril, 31, recently completed basic training and is headed to Iraq as a human resources administrator. India Abroad has the story.

He says:

“I was told it would be an interesting news that my wife and I have committed ourselves to this war on terror, whereas many immigrants just enjoy only the fruits of the blessed land,” Cyriac said.

She says:

“It was not easy for an Indian woman to do all that the Caucasian or African-American women do. More than the physical struggle, the mental stress was too much. I am happy that I completed it successfully,” said Fixie…

Can’t you just hear the intonation? (I don’t mean that in a derisive way.) The article is full of other interesting tid-bits including this surreal scene of a Mallu herding Punjabis to perform for Americans in Iraq:

Cyriac said his proudest moment in Iraq was on last August 15, “when I gathered some 15 Punjabis to sing the Indian national anthem in Sulaimaniya before an American audience.”

And the taste of home:

Guarding 3,000 detainees in Sulaimaniya and training Iraqi correctional cadets are not easy tasks. But he felt at home in Iraq because of the many good curries he got to eat, thanks to the many benevolent Kerala cooks he met there.

Cyriac is a true believer. He intends to stay in the military 30 years, and he wants more Indians to emulate him:

“Currently, there are very few Indians in the army. Those who are in the services are mainly medical personnel. This needs to change,” Cyriac said.

The couple’s two young children are with Fixie’s parents back in India. Here’s hoping everyone stays safe, surge and all. Continue reading →

Why the Hawks always seem to get their way

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The new issue of Foreign Policy Magazine has an interesting essay by Daniel Kahneman, a former Nobel Prize winner in economics. In the essay Kahneman points to known factors in human psychology to explain why the hawkish view of a given conflict is usually viewed by leaders as more favorable than the more dovish or pragmatic view. It is interesting to consider the points he makes in light of many current conflicts around the world, including Iraq and the impasse between India and Pakistan over Kashmir.

National leaders get all sorts of advice in times of tension and conflict. But often the competing counsel can be broken down into two basic categories. On one side are the hawks: They tend to favor coercive action, are more willing to use military force, and are more likely to doubt the value of offering concessions. When they look at adversaries overseas, they often see unremittingly hostile regimes who only understand the language of force. On the other side are the doves, skeptical about the usefulness of force and more inclined to contemplate political solutions. Where hawks see little in their adversaries but hostility, doves often point to subtle openings for dialogue.

As the hawks and doves thrust and parry, one hopes that the decision makers will hear their arguments on the merits and weigh them judiciously before choosing a course of action. Don’t count on it. Modern psychology suggests that policymakers come to the debate predisposed to believe their hawkish advisors more than the doves. There are numerous reasons for the burden of persuasion that doves carry, and some of them have nothing to do with politics or strategy. In fact, a bias in favor of hawkish beliefs and preferences is built into the fabric of the human mind. [Link]

This is interesting because most of us like to believe that before leaders make decisions they seek advice from a variety of smart people, reviewing all the facts, regardless of their preconceived notions. Many competent decision-making organizations even set up a red team/green team approach to pick apart opposing view points over major decisions. And yet, as many of us have seen, the use of force somehow ends up being the preferred course of action.

About 80 percent of us believe that our driving skills are better than average. In situations of potential conflict, the same optimistic bias makes politicians and generals receptive to advisors who offer highly favorable estimates of the outcomes of war. Such a predisposition, often shared by leaders on both sides of a conflict, is likely to produce a disaster. And this is not an isolated example.

In fact, when we constructed a list of the biases uncovered in 40 years of psychological research, we were startled by what we found: All the biases in our list favor hawks. These psychological impulses–only a few of which we discuss here–incline national leaders to exaggerate the evil intentions of adversaries, to misjudge how adversaries perceive them, to be overly sanguine when hostilities start, and overly reluctant to make necessary concessions in negotiations. In short, these biases have the effect of making wars more likely to begin and more difficult to end. [Link]
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U.S. Marines in India for intensive kabaddi training

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Most of us recognize that the growing strategic relationship between the U.S. and India is necessary to counter the increasing influence of China and also to help combat the terrorists that seek to do both our nations harm. In pursuit of such an unstated policy, a contingent of Marines is in Belgaum in northern Karnataka right now for some hard-nosed training:

The joint exercise saw around 160 troops from India and the US train in sharing of intelligence, communication, weapons and equipment.

After a joint anti-terrorism exercise with the Indian Army at the Commando Training Centre here, US soldiers will take back not just experience of rigorous commando training but also a quintessentially Indian sport — kabaddi…

Kabaddi fascinated them, one of the American platoon commanders, Lt Lee, said. “My troops are playing kabaddi in barracks too. They are impressed with the game and the agility of the Indian troops.”

The only hitch — as an Indian officer put it tongue-in-cheek — is that the Americans pronounce kabbadi as “cup of tea”. [Link]

Hmmmm. Not as hard-nosed as I assumed at first, but agility is important. What other skills will they learn? Jungle warfare? Hand to hand combat?

Snake charming course (part of jungle warfare).

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Draconian — Even By Israeli Standards

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Between the radioactive elucubrations of the Dear Leader, the accumulation of tortured and executed bodies in Iraq, the tawdry revelations of the Foley affair, and the growing murmur of a supposed Democratic sweep in the midterm election (I’ll believe that one when I see it), there has been precious little front-page consideration of the signing, earlier this week, of the Military Commissions Act.

As you may have heard, the act drastically changes the legal landscape for foreigners in the United States, whether here legally or illegally. It allows the government to deny a foreign suspect the right to challenge his or her imprisonment (habeas corpus), to employ evidence obtained by a wide and ambiguous range of coercive methods, and to use classified evidence whilst withholding it from the defense. Small things like that.

I will leave it to the lawyers here to amplify or amend this summary. Perhaps one reason why there hasn’t been much discussion is that the Supreme Court will ultimately determine whether, and in what form, this law stands. It’s quite possible that the Hamdan case, in which desi lawyer Neal Katyal plays a prominent role, will become the test case. At any rate, some in the media are looking ahead to this next phase, and already centering speculation on Justice Anthony Kennedy, the current swing Supreme.

I did, however, come across one very interesting piece of commentary that I wanted to share. In an Op-Ed in the Boston Globe, Harvard Law professor Martha Minow and a former legal adviser to the Israeli military, Gabrielle Blum, compare the new legislation with Israel’s approach to the same problem. They lead with their finding:

BEFORE ENACTING the “Detainee Bill” (otherwise known as the Military Commissions Act) two weeks ago, Congress should have spent more time learning from the Israeli experience. Compared with Israel’s security measures during a long and difficult experience with terrorism, the US Congress has gone too far in its willingness to compromise human rights and civil liberties. Security considerations, as legitimate and forceful as they are, do not justify such excessive measures, as the Israeli practice demonstrates.

Israel’s Unlawful Combatants Act, enacted in 2002, among other things provides for an immediate military hearing of the detainee upon detention, and a judicial hearing within two weeks and again every six months; a range of requirements for detention conditions and privileges; and the detainee’s right to meet with the Red Cross. The current U.S. legislation provides none of these safeguards. In addition, also unlike Israel, the U.S. law grants immunity to U.S. officials from prosecution except in the most extreme cases.

Minow and Blum conclude:

… the US Military Commissions Act sends to other countries facing terrorism the message that effective judicial review is null and void once the security alarm is sounded. It demonstrates a level of panic and irresponsible abandonment of principles that other nations, facing similar dangers, have avoided.

As bad as this may be for America, it is potentially far worse for countries that look to the United States for leadership. Now, the US example will encourage other nations to throw away rights just when they are sorely tested.

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“At War In All But Name”

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The LTTE has struck for the first time on Sri LankaÂ’s southern coast, in the tourist belt:

Tamil Tiger guerrillas opened a new front against the Sri Lankan government today when rebels posing as fisherman blew up their boats in an ambush on a naval base on the islandÂ’s southern tourist belt.

It is believed three sailors were killed and a dozen injured in the attack on the navy in Galle harbour. Fourteen civilians were also wounded. The authorities imposed an open-ended curfew on the town after mobs began to target Tamil-owned shops. Police brought the situation under control by firing on the crowds.

As you probably know, this bombing came two days after a particularly horrific attack in which a suicide bomber drove a truck into a convoy of buses returning Sri Lankan soldiers from their tour of duty on the front. Approximately 100 soldiers were killed. The military carried out air raids in retaliation.

A few days earlier, the Supreme Court ruled that the merger of the Northern and Eastern provinces, which was effected back in 1987 in the context of the India-Sri Lanka agreement, was unconstitutional and must be reversed. The merger was a concession to the Tamil separatist side and it was challenged in court by a hard-line Sinhalese party.

It is discouraging to talk about the situation in Sri Lanka. Prior threads here have eventually disintegrated into mud-slinging about the legitimacy or otherwise of the LTTEÂ’s grievances. The official or unofficial mouthpieces of the government and rebels specialize in incendiary rhetoric. The civilian peace movement in Sri Lanka appears beleaguered at best.

Most analysts agree that Sri Lanka is now at war in all but name. However, they say that both sides are likely to sit down for face-to-face talks in Switzerland at the end of the month to revive the peace process.

[Link]

So what are the conflict resolution experts saying?

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