Sadly, suicide bombings in Pakistan (and to a lesser extent, India) have become so commonplace that we don’t really report on ’em much anymore. Sure there was some interesting coverage of the bomb that altered the political landscape by nearly killing Benazir Bhutto (and the fact that it may have been strapped to a 1 year old baby makes the details even more chilling). But that was just one of perhaps a half dozen bomb blasts that have rocked the country in as many months.
Given that media glory is, in many respects, exactly what the bombers are looking for, there is at least one morose advantage to this state of reportage. Most Pakistanis live quiet, peaceful, productive lives and would certainly prefer other aspects of their society get highlighted in the global media.
However, a bombing in the past few days is significant because, as with Bhutto’s attempted assassination, it has tremendous implications for the geopolitical order far outside of Pakistan. In this case, the target was a suspected nuclear weapons facility –
As the Pakistani military continues the slow push to regain control of the settled district of Swat, suicide bombers struck in two locations, one at a sensitive weapons facility near Islamabad.…the attack at a Pakistani Air Force base in Kamra, while only injuring seven, has far more serious implications. The Kamra complex is a likely location for Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program. The suicide bomber targeted a bus filled with 35 children of Pakistani Air Force officers. The driver, a conductor, and five children were wounded in the strike.
…While Taliban and al Qaeda suicide bombers have targeted secure military facilities over the past year, it is unclear if the suicide attack was a target of opportunity or a demonstration of the groups’ capacity to penetrate security at sensitive locations.
Back when nukes were a *really* tough thing to build, a society had to achieve a rather high degree of coordination and thus consensus to pull off construction of these beasts. As the march of globalization and technology steadily lower the cost of proliferation, expect more and more fractured societies to reach for them….
I don’t follow. Nukes aren’t built by a society, they’re built by a small number of scientists in a bunker. You didn’t need consensus across America, you needed consensus amongst the scientists in the Manhattan project. And do you want to argue that Stalinist USSR had a high degree of consensus? I thought you would argue that there was a high degree of repression, which is something else entirely.
This is why I argue against most cultural arguments – I don’t see the mechanism linking societies to actions. Like any good libertarian, I don’t think outputs come about because of a social homunculus, I think they come about because of the actions of individuals.
Sadly, suicide bombings in Pakistan (and to a lesser extent, India)
Correction – while there were some suicide bombings in Indian Kashmir at the beginning of this decade, the bombings in the rest of India, such as the Bombay train blast in 2006, were not suicide bombings. In India’s case,professionals set bombs with timers in public places. Whereas suicide bombing can be seen as the weapon of desperate groups that feel oppressed and have no other means, the bombings India has suffered recently are carried by a different sort.
Interesting that you leave out Sri Lanka considering that the LTTE has carried out more suicide bombings than all the Muslim groups combined. The latest one was caught on security cam footage:
[CONTENT WARNING – ACTUAL FOOTAGE OF THE SUICIDE BOMBING]
Tamil Hindu Suicide Bomber – The Sari Clad Assassin
In chilling security camera footage, a female Tamil suicide bomber on a mission to kill a Sri Lankan cabinet minister is seen patiently answering questions in a bustling government office before calmly standing up and detonating the bomb hidden in her bra.
Vinod: I kind of agree with Ennis on this one. I know a thing or two about Nuclear 🙂 Even if some fanatic is able to penetrate Kamra complex and detonate a (say) a dirty bomb, it would be next to impossible to “Ignite” nuclear materials such as Pu, etc..without a highly sophisticated trigger device. We have much bigger problem of this being happening in former Soviet Union countries, than Pakistan. With the information I am priveledged to I do not think we need to worry about Pakistan’s Nukes.
Building a nuke is more of an engineering exercise than a science exercise. And, as such, there are a LARGE number of explicit / implicit pre-req’s before you can build one. Everything from high quality machined aluminum to build the centrifuges, to the ore, to the high quality explosives to the final technical expertise to the electro-fuses, etc. etc. etc. all have to line up to make it all happen. Back then, they had to build, from scratch, their own computer(-like) hardware to fire fuses, simulate blasts, etc.
If you add up all of the processes (starting with research –> mining –> transport –> assembly, etc.), in the US around the time of the Manhattan project, it wouldn’t surprise me if something like 100K people were directly involved and another 1M people indirectly involved end to end…. (keep in mind that a given Aluminum refiner doesn’t necessarily know that he’s building quality material for a centrifuge, he’s just fulfilling a P.O. from the govt for a then-esoteric level of material quality; same with the guy supplying vacuum tubes, etc.).
Because of the massive direction of repressive state resources focused on a single goal, the Soviets probably had 500K directly / indirectly involved…
The problem now is that tall the process that make metals, computers, communications, etc. cheaper and more available than back in the time of the manhattan project means that the overall cost of building a bomb is lower –
Put alternatively, the Nazi’s built an entire luftwaffe to try to bomb their enemy’s capital cities. AQ only had to train a few pilots. Back in the day, bombers spent massive amounts of time building remote fuses, now they can attach a bomb to a cellphone and dial a number…. etc. etc. etc.
So, how many folks are directly / indirectly involved in the Pakistani bomb? I dunno, but I betcha the number is at least half, if not much more so that the number involved directly / indirectly in the Manhattan project…
The costs of proliferation have always been low, Vinod. It only costs a lot of you want to build a nuke that is predictable and have a command-and-control mechanism around it. I don’t see how globalization has changed the game – the market for such ultra-high-technology has always been pretty global.
Ennis @1,
…And you need the support and money from the ruling establishment to fund that project. It may not be very easy on the sly. Even in the case of AQ Khan, the Pak govt. had to be complicit to a large extent. But the general conclusion of Vinod’s post is very much a concern for the American govt and scientific class as highligted in this recent book – The Atomic Bazaar: The Rise of the Nuclear Poor .
Vinod, thanks for blogging this. I normally keep up with Pakistan news, but missed this item yesterday, so your post was the first I heard of it. Thanks also for the links.
Back in the 1970s, I was a kid in many a similar bus at airbases on the Indian side, being taken with other Air Force brats to school and back. So this is something that, even after all these years, and from so far away, seems very close indeed. Words fail in expressing the intensity of outrage I feel at anyone who would ram a school bus with an explosive-laden car.
There have been earlier incidents attacking PAF targets on land. Back in early November, just before Musharraf declared the Emergency – there was a similar incident, but the bus involved carried aircrew – and the base was Sargodha. And just on Sunday, Dec 9, there was news of a rocket attack on Peshawar air base (there have also been earlier attacks on Peshawar, which is in NWFP itself, while Sargodha and Kamra are in Punjab).
In terms of the motivations of the attackers – I think they may be choosing Air Force-related ‘soft targets’ – because they may not be able to hit back at the airplanes and helicopters that Pakistan is using against them in the hills and mountains of NWFP/FATA – where land forces have often been useless. The insurgents see them coming from afar, know the hills and valleys much better, have the advantage of surprize, etc, consequently, they have inflicted heavy casualties on the Pakistan army troops. And – aircrew morale is critical – there is nothing more certain to damage their morale or their concentration – than the lingering idea that someone might try to attack their kids on the way to school.
I don’t think this particular attack was intended to go after the nukes. That Kamra is a suspected n-site might be just coincidence.
So there definitely are substantial material demands for a successful nuclear project, which in the past involved far more people and industries, but how many people within government are needed to get a weapons program going and sustain it? In Pakistan, is the line of authority strictly vertical or are there functionaries with greater influence over such a program than their official title would suggest?
-stan is the problem 🙂
The Conde’ Nast article posted in the news tab is an excellent story of the reach of AQK within the Pak govt. Interestingly the American agencies knew of the program at an early stage but were waiting and watching for the right time. Recent book – Deception: Pakistan, the United States, and the Secret Trade in Nuclear Weapons talks about this controversy. It appears that history and politics are created in what we don’t know at every moment of our life.
there are a myriad of terror groups that the pakistani establishment has fostered to kill indians, and since america has forced pakistan’s hand into limiting their activities, these groups are lashing back. this is their frankenstein, and this being pakistan, the world will fail to fully confront while india pays with the lives of its citizens and soldiers.
To an extent yes, but not always to a large extent. The army was primarily more involved and the money for the project was coming from non budgetary sources (US, sale of technology, etc etc) at certain times, I think.
Partly true, thats why a lot of American taxpayers money is being spent for this organization’s programs including a dedicated non-proliferation graduate program to prevent nuclear terrorism
Brij in #11. I just saw this comment after I posted #13. The book you link to is the one I was thinking of, couldn’t remember the name.
Not Kazakhstan!
Kazakhstan greatest country in the world, all other countries are run by little girls.
More on AQK aka Dr. Estragneglove. Ultra funny take on the issue.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3wjNKqIffq4
Pakistan annouces more legal powers to National Command authority (NCA) that controls its nuclear arms as reported here in this news article
Musharraf tightens grip on nuclear arms “..The ordinance reinforces the NCA’s “complete command and control” over all aspects of the nuclear program and grants the chairman “all the powers and functions of the authority..”