It seems that every time I tell some political wonk on the campaign front that I’m mobilizing Asian and Pacific Islander voters, their eyes glaze over condescendingly. To them, the AAPI community (including South Asian Americans) are a complicated and apathetic community to mobilize. This election cycle, this community has been referred to as the ‘Sleeping Giant’ and a national report released this week shows that the AAPI community could be the missed swing vote this for November 4th.
The researchers’ 2008 National Asian American Survey (NAAS) shows that 41 percent of Asian Americans are likely to favor Obama, while 24 percent support John McCain. In battleground states, where either candidate could win on Election Day, Obama leads with 43 percent of Asian Americans supporting him and 22 percent favoring McCain.Researchers point out that a key finding of the study is the high proportion of undecided Asian American likely voters: 34 percent. Among the general population, national polls conducted since the major party conventions show that undecided voters are approximately 8 percent of the electorate.[NAAS]
Yes, the report states the Asian Americans are overwhelming leaning Obama – but even bigger news is that 1/3 of the likely to vote population are still deciding how to vote. Thus, if campaigns want to get the most bang for their buck for the next three weeks, Asian American likely voters seems like a good place to start.
How do the ‘Asian Indians’ fair in this report?
Among Asian American citizens, 65 percent can be described as likely voters. Japanese American citizens are the most likely to vote (82%), followed by Asian Indian (73%), Koreans (72%), Filipinos (67%), Vietnamese (65 %) and Chinese (60%). [pg 1]The report predicts that 43 percent of Asian American adults will vote in the 2008 elections. Amongst Asian Indians, 45 percent will vote, but the proportions are higher if one looks at turnout among the citizen population (73%) and the registered voter population (78%). [pg 6]
Asian Indians identify largely as Democrats (39%) and only 7 percent identify as Republican. 19 percent identify as independents, and 35 percent identify as non-partisan voters. [pg 11]
This election, 53 percent of Asian Indians are voting for Obama, 13 percent are voting for McCain and 33 percent of Asian Indians are still undecided. [pg 13]
Should be no surprise that desis talk politics – 70 percent discussed politics with their friends and family. And 14 percent of Asian Indians have visited the internet to discuss a candidate or issue. (Oh yeah, reading Sepia Mutiny is a form of political participation…!) [pg 23]
The methodology to this was pretty clean – they called 920 Asian Indians and did the sampling bilingually when needed with each of the ethnic groups. Full disclosure, I spoke as a community partner on the panel launching of the California version of the report in Los Angeles on Wednesday. They also have a New York/New Jersey version of the report as well.
The way I see it, political campaigns ignore the AAPI community – we are often spread outside ethnic enclaves, we live in states that are usually not swing states, we have a variety of languages and cultures that require tactics too intense for the typical campaigner trying to get the most bang out of their buck. Because this community is ignored by campaigns, they are less educated on how to vote for candidates, the voting process, and have more barriers to voting. This is likely why we have such a large number of undecided voters in this community and this is why with three weeks left to Election Day, campaigns should be focusing on the significant number of undecided voters in our community.
How? By ethnically targeting voters in culturally component ways. For instance, in-language outreach, outreach to ethnic media, and peer to peer conversations. New Experiments in Minority Voter Mobilization, a recent report released last month by The James Irvine Foundation shows that targeting the AAPI community with bilingual phone banks has a huge effect on turnout of this community. This report shows a statistically significant increase in ethnic specific targeting for voters. Full disclosure again, I work for one of the organizations profiled in the report.
So, what does the Mutiny think? Do the finding mentioned above about the South Asian community reflect those of your own community? A poll is just a poll but National Asian American Survey is the only report I’ve found with data on the South Asian community and how they are voting on the Nov 4th Election. We have only 20 days left until Election Day and we know that 34% of the likely to vote South Asian American population is still undecided which means YOU have 20 days to swing the desi vote. So, get out there, get organized, and do do what you got to do to get the Desi Vote out this November 4th.
I am dubious that “undecided” really means a lack “campaign outreach.” I think it means, more often, a reluctance to speak to the pollster, based, often, on the crap political environment back in the Desh. I recoil at the term “community,” but my impression is that early 1970’s immigrants from India (e.g., my parents and their friends) are way more likely than 7% to be voting GOP–I don’t dispute the overall statistic, thoug–obviously, there’s been a change over time.
Taz–thank you for the post. Its always so difficult to find data on the Asian Indian vote so, your writing about this is alone positive forward movement. Want to make sure I’m reading/hearing you right: your plea isn’t just about getting the remaining, undecided Asian Indian voters to vote for Obama, its to get them to vote at all, right?
I’m also curious to know how Obama-supporting SM readers feel about keeping certain votes to a minimum (i.e., those of the wealthy, conservative Asian Indians). I agree with one of rob’s (#1) propositions: that Asian Indian American political apathy stems partly from the “crap political environment back in the Desh,” (as he so eloquently put it). But admittedly, I am also desperately scared of reaching out to some of my people this election. Voters who will undoubtedly vote the wrong (but ever so “right”) way. As an activist, I’m ashamed to even admit that I’d rather certain people not vote but, as a deeply concerned and desperate Asian Indian American citizen, I can’t help but really think it.
This 34% of apparent Asian Indian American uncertainty . . . if we strive to transform it into certainty, are we sure we know where the votes will go?
馃檪 Of COURSE! (But this is not really the issue with this group in the profiled report – the report looked at likely voters, so that population will vote. They just don’t know how.)
Does “Asian Indian” include Pakistanis or Bengladeshis or Sri Lankans?
I’m a little confused.
AFAIK (esp. here at SM), South Asian does not equal Asian Indian.
We do not live in a country where ‘one person, one vote’ is true.
The urge, as SP described, to wish that McCain-leaning folks do not get to the voting booth on Tuesday (re: Jason Brennan and bad public returns from individual choices), is somewhat justified. I have a feeling that my ‘community’ will be voting their pocketbooks, and that’s always a toss-up.
Not voting (or any perceived laxity in the discharging of your ‘duties’ as a citizen) does not equal clubbing baby seals. I won’t vote because I never had quality viable choices to begin with and I refuse to vote for 1/3 of a turd sandwich as opposed to 2/3 of a turd sandwich. (especially in a state where BO is breaking 50%)
Folks who still describe themselves as ‘undecided,’ as opposed to a justified ‘uninterested,’ after what is perhaps the greatest candidate-coverage in the history of electoral politics (given the aspirational, issue-free/issue-restricted ways that most voters make their choices), are not ‘leaning’ one way or another but have failed to do the assigned reading and assume someone else will do it for them and assuage whatever remaining guilt they hold from not paying attention.
2 脗路 SP said
SP,
the only McCain-leaning people ‘in the community’ that I know are poor, medical coverage-less, hard-studying and very pious (xtian). They will be voting McCain because they cannot vote for a pro-choice candidate. How does this fit your model of “rich Indian”?
Asian Indians broke 2-1 for Kerry in 2004. If anything, the outcome will be even larger in 2008. The dark brown and bow-tied “conservative” Indian, an affront to other minorities but “useful idiots” for Republicans, is a stereotype, but increasingly untrue.
Taz, thanks for this post. I didn’t realize how big the undecideds were. I just wanted to let people know about a really neat ‘questionnaire’ that MyDebates.org has. It walks you through over two dozen issues, ranks them in importance for you, ascertains your own views, and then tells you, in the end, which candidate’s position matches yours, on every single issue.
For people who are undecided, this is a fantastic tool that can tell you who to vote for based on the issues. As far as I’ve been able to see, the questions and ranking are totally non-partisan, representing candidate positions fairly and accurately.
It also creates a really neat widget for you that you can put up on your blog or myspace or facebook page. I just did that on my blog.
I think the relevant point here is not the mobilization based on ethnicity but politics and yes partisan politics. For example, Filipinos tend to vote as a group for Republicans whereas “Asian Indians” tend to vote for Democrats – up to now at least. I have no interest in ensuring that Bush-supporting or McCain fundraising uncles go vote whereas I do have an interest in making sure that progressive and other desis with whom I share values do vote (which is not the same category as “Democrats”). I’d rather work with progressive Filipinos and progressive Asian Indians.
Of course, all voter outreach efforts have some politics behind them, so this is really not an either or but a request for a shift in the way we think about such things.
i’ve decided not to vote this year, at least for either of the mainstream choices. like nayagan, it is because i do not believe in either mccain or obama.
i’m not very surprised by the results of this survey, but it does strike me how often desis lean left. my mother, both fiscally and socially, aligns far more clearly with the GOP than with the democrats. however, she just doesn’t like most republican politicians or candidates and usually ends up voting democrat. in this election, however, she might not vote at all – she really has it in for obama, mostly because she’s stuck on his use of his black identity to get ahead in the race.
“i’ve decided not to vote this year, at least for either of the mainstream choices. like nayagan, it is because i do not believe in either mccain or obama.”
You will never vote for any mainstream candidate so stop the charade already. Both McCain and Obama are legitimate choices. If you can’t decide on either of them, then you probably are someone aligned with some fringe movement that has zero influence or you just don’t care.
Aren’t most most Indians in NY / NJ/California, etc. And given that that
1.) these are going to go democratic in a big way, and a individual vote will be nearly worthless
and
2.) The Indian community is one of the very few that politicians do not pander to in any meaningful way (other than by meaningless votes)
. .
why vote?
I am not cynical in any way. I definitely plan to vote on Nov 4. Fo r any candidate you want. For $10002.
(The cost of buying my vote is $2, but $10000 is needed to cover the cost the US passport that I will need to fake a US citizenship)
wow. narrow-minded much? just because YOU think i should think at least one is a viable choice, does not mean that my disagreeing is irrational. both of these candidates are highly problematic in my view. and it’s not just this election – since bill clinton left office, i don’t think i have seen a presidential nominee that has convinced me enough. although if forced, i’d probably choose obama, i have a choice, and i choose not to vote. and i can guarantee you – unfortunately, i am pretty mainstream…
13 脗路 ak said
Simmer down, children.
In yesterday’s debate I was pleasantly surprised to see McCain mention the Ethanol subsidy as an item that he would cut. I think that is huge. Ethanol subsidy is the biggest problem that caused worldwide food inflation and had real effect on the lives of people in poorer nations. Obama wants to be everything to everyone and did not name even a single item that he would cut in order to address the oncoming budget deficits.
But than, all that is academic now. Obama is coasting to a landslide due to the financial mess.
I know my last comment (comment#15) is a bit tangential, but I have really not seen any mention anywhere of the point that I made.
re: “asian indian” an paks an bangs. lots of the latter apparently put “asian indian” on the census by mistake. but anyway, 90% of american brownz are “asian indian,” so good first approximation.
Oh. My. God. Please talk about AAPI, South Asian or other Asian candidates – where are they?????
RC (#16) said:
RC: I was about to call you out on the ‘tangential’ but, you wisely caught yourself. 馃檪 In a debate as seemingly “critical” as this one, there will always be snafus during the actual conversation. (From a journalistic perspective, debates exist in large part so that reporters and the public have a dartboard to play on right after. Like a glorified soundbyte of sorts). If it were all truly indicative, I’d harp endlessly on McCain’s famed “eye roll” when Obama mentioned the Colombian labor leaders; McCain’s rising temper; McCain’s “crazy old man” demeanor; etc. But that’s missing the issue. (Also, for debate-analyzing purposes, unfortunately the other thing that Obama missed was to link Republican spending in Iraq TO the budget deficit. But he’s said it before so, I don’t fault him for not saying it last night).
Anyway, good point on the ethanol.
Nayagan (#6) said:
I wholly & highly disagree, Nayagan. In fact, it is a known quantity that my position on the political spectrum travels farther right as my pocketbook increases in weight and thickness. Wealth–let’s be real, particularly for Gujaratis!–equals a desire to hold onto that wealth. South Asian Americans already comprise the highest income bracket (or, second highest, at most) within the Asian American community as a whole. Believe you me, there are plenty of “rich Indians,” as you say, who will give McCain the vote. GOD HELP US, but its true. I agree that the Christian vote is McCain’s-in-the-bag, no doubt, but remember, too, just like the South Asian community is becoming richer, as a whole, so is some of the nation’s Christian vote also becoming more progressive, particularly amongst Protestants. Not the most congruent comparison but, just a thought.
15, RC:
Obama comes from one of the largest corn growing states in the US, plus he needs Iowa. You think he gives a shit about rising food prices in the 3rd world? He would rather the 3rd world is depopulated by hunger and starvation so that US companies cannot outsource to those countries anymore.
http://www.sepiamutiny.com/sepia/archives/005445.html http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/06/23/obamas_evolving_ethanol_rhetor.html
and a significant amount of desis fall into the $250k and above bracket – the target bracket of obama’s supertax on the rich. of course, tax is only one of the big issues in this particular election, but many people – esp. wealthy/older americans – tend to vote based on what affects them most financially.
i should add, though, that tax is not the only thing that affects them financially – given the current economic situation, people might be less concerned wth tax and more concerned with other policies from the candidates that have a greater impact on their finances.
Hmmm. I didn’t realize we were such an apathetic bunch. My experience has been that the Uncles in particular love to gupshup about the politics. But, I suppose that doesn’t necessarily translate to showing up at the polls.
In fact, it is a known quantity that my position on the political spectrum travels farther right as my pocketbook increases in weight and thickness. Wealth–let’s be real, particularly for Gujaratis!–equals a desire to hold onto that wealth. South Asian Americans already comprise the highest income bracket (or, second highest, at most) within the Asian American community as a whole. Believe you me, there are plenty of “rich Indians,” as you say, who will give McCain the vote.
I agree with that too. For many people that make $250,000 plus a year, at least the ones I know, there is a feeling that they work their ass off to get that (that’s not to say the rest of us (me included) don’t work hard too) and the sentiment is that they shouldn’t be targetted as rich enough to afford tax hikes. It’s one thing to be born into trust funds (the mccains and bush’s of this world) and another thing to be a working professional – one that works 14+hour shifts, M-Sunday, with your patients as a heart specialist (after working extremely long hours to get to that position in school and not being able to rely on legacies to get into competitive fields/schools).
But I still think that many rich desis vote Democrat b/c income tax issue is still overrided by the 250 b/c I think there continues to be a belief that the democratic party is one the side of people of color – so even many wealthy desis won’t often vote repub and the resignation that someone has to be taxed.
Are you saying that McCain’s point about eliminating the Ethenol subsidy was a “snafu”?? That is a major geo-political policy shifts (if it happens) for the US in the last 4 years. Its not minor. Barack ‘every thing to everyone’ Obama didnt name one substantive thing about cutting. I know he doesnt need to. He is winning !!!
yeah, this is and interesting survey. I briefly discussed about it in my blog last week. The debates are over so I think there will be a big swing towards one of the candidates in next few days.
RC (#25) said:
No, RC. That’s not what I was saying. By ‘snafu,’ I was referring to Obama’s having missed/forgotten the opportunity to “name one substantive thing about cutting.”
5 脗路 Nayagan said
Agreed. But do not think that “not voting” means that you are not expressing an opinion. You are just ceding the discussion to the fanatics on either side, whichever ones outnumber the other in your side. The reality of a two-party system and the facts from recent elections indicate that it is much safer to vote for whomever you think is the better of the two alternatives, if you live in a state that matters.
19 脗路 SP said
Let’s set aside the notion that “wealth” is more than hefty bank accounts, McMansions and luxury SUVs. Let’s also set aside the examples of “wealthy” people like Warren Buffet, George Soros, and Bill Gates who support progressive taxation. And we might as well set aside idealistic notions of a “commonwealth,” while we’re at it, too.
Hoarding and concentration of capital in the hands of the few serves nobody’s self-interest in the long term.
Maybe I am a crazy wild-eyed idealist, but I think you have to turn out the vote for everyone. As someone who has a probably unhealthy and fierce desire to protect the franchise and promote democratic participation, I think the more people who turn out and vote, the better (if nothing else, this legitimizes victory). Just as I get riled about voter suppression targeted at the poor, I think it would be incredibly unethical and problematic to suppress (or “minimize”) the votes of individuals who would vote McCain.
With all due respect, ak, characterizing Obama’s tax plan as a “supertax” on the rich is misleading. Re: voting your pocketbook, I think people are going to see money in their pocket shift; it’s not just taxes, but also health care reform, minimum wage, and other costs that workers are presently internalizing that may shift in the future.
2 脗路 SP said
It is a disgusting idea. Granted that these voters are not at the power and information disadvantage that the targets of Republican vote suppression are, but still, this is a particularly egregious exemplification of ends justifying means (not that they always don’t).
As for undecided voters, I really think we should be calling them “lazy” or “apathetic” at this point. Because, what further information are they looking for, really?
point taken – i’ve been watching too many ads on tv 馃槈 though by the technical definition of the word ‘super’ it’s not an incorrect description, though that’s probably a pretty boring conversation…i actually don’t disagree with the tax, or added tax bracket, if you will – it exemplifies many of the policies behind a graduated system of taxation.
that’s what my follow-up comment was for.
hypothetically, if i were undecided, i might be thinking about who has more veracity. it’s a sceptical way to think, but not an irrational one – bas we’ve seen in the past, just because a candidate lays out a policy does not mean that he will either carry it out or intends to do so. in my generation’s time, this is probably the most important election to date – the stakes are pretty high and the candidates have been pulling out all the stops…
Not necessarily. The race card hasn’t been fully used yet. When it is unleashed watch out. You can see the beginnings of a possible impending catastrophe for Obama with the way the ACORN issue is playing out. The latest Gallup poll shows that McCain has moved up in the polls and is now only two points behind Obama, within the margin the error. I think this is the consequence of the Acorn voter registration frauds involving african americans. And the black Reverend “goddamn America” Wright is waiting in the wings to deliver the coup de grace. Hammering on Obama’s Ayers “relationship” didnt work well for the Republicans primarily for the reason that Ayers is white.
We can see where that selfish greed has landed Gujarat and India cant we? Here’s the latest condemnation of India’s indefensible record in feeding its citizens: looks like Gujarat performs worse on the Global Hunger Index than even the abysmally bad indian average. Worse even than Orissa. Check out the graph:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7669152.stm
“Twelve Indian states have “alarming” levels of hunger while the situation is “extremely alarming” in the state of Madhya Pradesh, says a new report.”
“India has more people suffering hunger – a figure above 200 million – than any other country in the world, it says.”
ak, try to stop her chatting with Geraldine Ferraro— and consider yourself forced to vote.
30 脗路 Camille said
You’re a crazy wild-eyed idealist and you’re in good company.
May the best candidate win. (This is what [electoral college, indirect, corporate lobbyist, mainstream media] democracy looks like!)
17 脗路 razib said
That’s old data and as you mentioned has a lot of problems in addition to standard problems with census data (like underreporting of poor people). First approximation yes – good, arguable 馃檪
1 脗路 rob said
Earth to Rob–this blog is a community and you donate your time to it, commie. :-p