BusinessWeek just published a massive issue dedicated exclusively to India and China (via SAJA). I’m talkin’ huge.
… most economists figure China and India possess the fundamentals to keep growing in the 7%-to-8% range for decades. Barring cataclysm, within three decades India should have vaulted over Germany as the world’s third-biggest economy. By mid-century, China should have overtaken the U.S. as No. 1. By then, China and India could account for half of global output. Indeed, the troika of China, India, and the U.S. — the only industrialized nation with significant population growth — by most projections will dwarf every other economy…
The closest parallel to their emergence is the saga of 19th-century America, a huge continental economy with a young, driven workforce that grabbed the lead in agriculture, apparel, and the high technologies of the era, such as steam engines, the telegraph, and electric lights. But in a way, even America’s rise falls short in comparison to what’s happening now. Never has the world seen the simultaneous, sustained takeoffs of two nations that together account for one-third of the planet’s population. [Link]
India and China accounted for more than 50% of world gross domestic product in the 18th century and to my mind, there is no doubt this will be repeated. [Link]
Their sudsing machine is on hype cycle high:
Google… principal scientist Krishna Bharat is setting up a Bangalore lab complete with colorful furniture, exercise balls, and a Yamaha organ — like Google’s Mountain View (Calif.) headquarters — to work on core search-engine technology… “I find Bangalore to be one of the most exciting places in the world,” says Dan Scheinman, Cisco Systems Inc.’s senior vice-president for corporate development. “It is Silicon Valley in 1999.” [Link]
Today’s reality is more sobering:
Today, China and India account for a mere 6% of global gross domestic product — half that of Japan. [Link]Continue reading