For years now the Bush Administration has been drubbing it into our impressionable little minds that Iraq is the “Central front in the War on Terror.” Today, the newly released key findings
of the latest National Intelligence Estimate disabuses us of any such false impression:
We assess the group has protected or regenerated key elements of its Homeland attack capability, including: a safehaven in the Pakistan Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), operational lieutenants, and its top leadership. Although we have discovered only a handful of individuals in the United States with ties to al-Qa’ida senior leadership since 9/11, we judge that al-Qa’ida will intensify its efforts to put operatives here.
Got that? Everyone clear? The Pakistan Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) are now the agreed upon (at least by our intelligence community) central front in this “War on Terror.” That is the reason we are starting to pour money into there. Well, I thought it was clear but there was still some confusion at today’s White House Press briefing:
Q Fran, is it a fair reading of the key judgments that you released today that the federally administered tribal areas you discussed is, in fact, the central front in the war on terrorism, to use the President’s phrase? And, if so, tell us how, if at all, you have renegotiated your own operational arrangements with General Musharraf, President Musharraf, so that we would have greater access in there.
MS. TOWNSEND: Okay. Well, to use the President’s phrase, Iraq is the central front in the war on terror. And —
Q Is that supported by the key judgments, then?
MS. TOWNSEND: There is no question, based on the statements of bin Laden, himself, not to mention others and al-Qa’ida , that they regard Iraq as the central front in the war on terror. [Link]
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p>Well sure, if you conflate the group “al-Qa’ida in Iraq” (a newly formed group that didn’t even exist until recently and only looks for inspiration from the original) with the original al-Qa’ida. It’s not like most of the American public cares about the very important difference (which is what the administration counts on). NPR had a great wrap up on all of this.
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p>And here is a rather pleasant thought from the briefing:
Q Is it shorthanding it too much to say that General Musharraf, through his efforts in the tribal areas there against al Qaeda, is the key person, the point man in protecting the United States, and whether he has success there or not is the whole ball game?… [Link]
With the truce between the Pakistani government and the FATA off, I fear now that suicide bombing might start to spread like a plague across Pakistan, leading to even greater instability:
Militants in northwest Pakistan disavowed a peace pact with the government and launched two days of suicide attacks and bombings that killed at least 70 people, dramatically escalating the violence in the region infiltrated by Al-Qaida.
The attacks Saturday and Sunday followed strident calls by extremists to avenge the government’s bloody storming of Islamabad’s Red Mosque after an eight-day siege. [Link]
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p>Greater instability across Pakistan is the worst of all outcomes for everyone.
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p>By the way, there was one other thing to note in the NIE:
The arrest and prosecution by US law enforcement of a small number of violent Islamic extremists inside the United States–are becoming more connected ideologically, virtually, and/or in a physical sense to the global extremist movement–points to the possibility that others may become sufficiently radicalized that they will view the use of violence here as legitimate. We assess that this internal Muslim terrorist threat is not likely to be as severe as it is in Europe, however.
This is great news for Muslims or anyone with brown skin that can be mistaken for a Muslim in America! This means that if you were born or grew up in the U.S., the next time someone gives you a hard time and implies that you might be a terrorist you can be like “bitch, the NIE says I’m not a likely threat.”
the fans of bush are true believers. why do you provoke them? 😉
Say what? Musharraf is protecting the U.S.? Is this what’s keeping the Senate up all night tonight?
Now why didn’t I think of that when a jarhead came up to me at a nightclub a few weeks ago and inquired – ” You wouldn’t happen to have any C4 on you wouldja?!” Damn, I better write that down! 😉
well, he can’t throw mushie under the bus when he expects him to work for our interests.
Is it not more dangerous not to conflate? We are not just at war with A;-Quaeda. The recent arrests in the UK were relatively independent of al-quaeda.
Why? The status quo resulted in radical islam growing for almost 1/4 of a century. Is it better to keep thjs radicalism hidden or bring it to the surface. Remeber, the KKK increased its membership as the civil rights movement progressed.
Manju, the London cases tell us that radical Islam can grow anywhere. The question is where can radical Islam get power, and some red buttons — that would be Pakistan. Or so the bogeyman goes. In reality the army has a whole bunch of power and “Islamic hardliners” can create trouble but cannot get hold of sundry red buttons. That would be like saying there is a Naxalite problem in India, and so India can become a Maoist state. The Indian example is probably less far-fetched that the Pakistan case if at all.
Hypertree: i think the major question is where can islamists get access to wmd’s? and that again is probably pakistan. but they could use them in london. 1% doctrine.
hypertree: re-reading your comment–especialy the red button item– i don’t see where we disagree.
There was good discovery times documentary which followed an Army Special Forces ODA team around on some missions. In one segment of the hour long show, they raid a bomb maker’s place, but didn’t find their man. Their indicated he probably went over the border to Pakistan. This isn’t anything new per se, it’s been a given fact that the tribal border area is a center of gravity for operation support and protection for hardcore AQ types. From some military websites I follow, word was bouncing around where after Army Special Forces successfully (with Airforce and other SOF units supporting) toppled the Taliban with a 100 or so Soldiers, a General told Army SF that they (Big Army aka mechanized, infantry, etc) would never let them have so much fun again. Their success was an embarrassment to the conventional forces. A couple of years into the Afghan conflict, Big Army took over, missions with more Direct Action (all the high speed ‘cool’ ninja stuff) took precedence for leaders as well as politicians. It’s hard to educate higher ups on the results of sitting with tribal leaders, drinking tea, and raising local forces for support. It’s simply too out of the box for the American public, politicians of all stripes, and many old school military types to comprehend.
The material support on various levels these folks recieve is a far more broad based (cash, shelter, indifference, moral support(, though not necessarily as organized as traditional insurgencies.
For those looking for non traditional news with a bit more depth, especially first person type accounts, should read Michael Yon’s dispatches. He’s reader funded and independent, though his stuff does get picked up by mainstream sometimes, though it’s always cut down in length. While in Afghanistan, he was running around sending dispatch after dispatch mentioning more support was needed. He’s currently back in Iraq and his last 5 dispatches or so have been pretty heavy hitting. It covers some positive ground in turning the insurgency against the AQ-Iraq group (where former sunni tribes are helping Americans), uncovering and photographing graves where people including children were beheaded by AQ-Iraq folks (one of the reasons why sunni tribes are turning against such groups, who’re following Abu Musab’s tactics, WARNING THOUGH it’s a bit graphic with pictures), to following the day to day activities of American units, with him generally being the only reporter patient enough or crazy enough to be around (he was Army SF, AKA Green Berets, himself before).
GW has failed the information warfare/psyops from day one. Guys like FDR and Reagan were brilliant at the political tools of warfare. The last two presidents have been serious lacking. One had the ability, but figured blow jobs in the White House were more fun, the other is a PR nightmare. Iraq though, is a facet of this insurgency against fundamentalist Islam, as it stand presently. Whether we should/shouldn’t have been there is water under the bridge. If we pull out, Darfur (where the world has been crying for intervention) will look like a day in the park. With the civil conflict going on right now and people dying, once Americans leave, it’ll be an absolute bloodbath.
I hope the government (congress, executive, military) really let Army SF loose, with full psyop and civil affairs support and a healthy dose of a coordinated information warfare campaign to fight the salafist movement.
Manju, specious! Bush’s policy in the War on Terror has been, in the kindest description, a total shitshow. It is incredibly dangerous to conflate; what will we do next? Bomb Pakistan? That would be logically consistent with the current security policy. It was a conflation that built support for a war in Iraq that had nothing to do with 9/11, or with Al Quaeda. Understanding the nature of the issue frames how you design the approach. To paint everything with the brush of “some crazy Muslim terrorists somewhere” ignores how these things are connected and lacks nuance, and it certainly doesn’t help us build legitimacy or support for our foreign policy.
While the ideology of Al Qaeda seems to be spreading, you still need actual training in weapons and tactics to be effective. The recent bombing attempts in Scotland show that – desire without ability yields little. But, look at the 7/7 bombers – they went to training facilities in Pakistan, and were far more effective. So long as the Pakistani hinterlands remain intact for Al Qaeda, we’re just swatting flies.
amusing your calling her reasoning specious. In terms of policy against the war on terror, its nearly impossible to come up with an politically unbiased evaluation–though i think everybody will agree that dangerous potential terrorists have been captured, and numerous mistakes in the foreign policy area have been made. However, you’re erecting a strawman by saying that we would bomb pakistan if we started to conflate old al qaeda with new sympathizers who fight under either the al qaeda banner or under an organization which has at the very least some tenuous but strong ideological/operational ties to al qaeda. First, like you said, Musharraf is an ally and president of a purportedly democratic country. That immediately suggests the situation, at least in neo con’s eyes is different.
As for conflation building support, i think that’s a little revisionism. In all of the SOTU addresses and bush’s speeches regarding the war in the buildup he presented a number of strategic reasons to enter conflict which were suggested in tandem. That’s doesn’t mean that the war was right (its obviously dependent on one’s acceptance of those reasons–but it was a more complex approach them you suggest.
As for the lack of nuance shown sometimes from this administration–i tend to agree (remember the ‘axis of evil’)–and it does hurt ones efforts. However, I think in this case, conflating a new cell of al qaeda in iraq (which does have some old al qaeda in it) with the main group isn’t that crazy–they use the same methods, have the same goals, and are allied by the same things–so the war on terror fight is applicable to them in the same way.
maybe the conflation isn’t that bad http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/meast/07/18/iraq.capture/index.html
Good Idea Camille. We should bomb Pakistan.
GujuDude is the only one here with the facts.
Iraq is central to the war on radical Islam and not just Al-Qaeda. The terrorists go there for an opportunity to kill Americans. They come mostly from Saudi, Syria, Jordan, and the Emirates.
Last recruiting figures show the Marine Corps exceeding its quota by over 3000. Thank God America still produces young men like these.