When the UK authorities brought various accused terrorists into custody, American sources said that the bad guys had been mere days away from a dry run. That is, a 9/11 type event was narrowly averted. But how close were they, really?
Some critics say that the evidence from the UK is weak, and the evidence from Pakistan unreliable:
Imminent threat? They had no bombs, no labs, no tickets, and no passports.None of the alleged terrorists had made a bomb. None had bought a plane ticket. Many did not even have passports, which given the efficiency of the UK Passport Agency would mean they couldn’t be a plane bomber for quite some time. What is more, many of those arrested had been under surveillance for over a year … Nothing from that surveillance had indicated the need for early arrests.
Then an interrogation in Pakistan revealed the details of this amazing plot to blow up multiple planes – which, rather extraordinarily, had not turned up in a year of surveillance. Of course, the interrogators of the Pakistani dictator have their ways of making people sing like canaries… Trouble is it always tends to give the interrogators all they might want, and more, in a desperate effort to stop or avert torture. What it doesn’t give is the truth. [Link]
Much to my surprise, even security hawks like Andrew Sullivan have voiced skepticism:
So far, no one has been charged in the alleged terror plot to blow up several airplanes across the Atlantic. No evidence has been produced supporting the contention that such a plot was indeed imminent. … Remember: the British authorities had all these people under surveillance; they did not want to act last week; there was no imminent threat of anything but a possible “dummy-run,” … How could they even stage a dummy-run with no passports? [Link]
Meanwhile, some chemistry geeks have also voiced skepticism about how easily a TATP bomb could have been made on the fly, as it were:
[A bomb would probably involve] … A mix of H2O2 and H2SO4 … When you mix it, it heats like mad …. It is very easy to end up with a spattering mess. You don’t want to be around the stuff in general. Now you may protest “but terrorists who are willing to commit suicide aren’t going to be deterred by being injured while mixing their precursor chemicals!” — but of course, determination isn’t the issue here, getting the thing done well enough to make the plane go boom is the issue. There is also the small matter of explaining to the guy next to you what you’re doing, or doing it in a tiny airplane bathroom while the plane jitters about.
Now, they could of course mix up their oxidizer in advance, but then finding a container to keep the stuff in that isn’t going to melt is a bit of an issue. The stuff reacts violently with *everything*. You’re not going to keep … [it] in a shampoo bottle — not unless the shampoo bottle was engineered by James Bond’s Q. Glass would be most appropriate, assuming that you could find a way to seal it that wouldn’t be eaten. [Link]
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p>The UK government’s past record on such matters is imperfect:
Of those charged, 80% are acquitted. Most of the very few – just over two per cent of arrests – who are convicted, are not convicted of anything to do terrorism, but of some minor offence. [Link]
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p>And the last major alleged plot turned out to be a dud:
The 2 June 2006 Forest Gate raid saw the arrest of two men at their east London homes in Forest Gate by police acting on intelligence that they might be terrorists in possession of a chemical bomb. One of the men was accidentally shot during the raid, but the subsequent inquiries cleared the officers involved of any wrongdoing. No explosive devices were found during the raid. [Link]
America was founded on the premise that citizens should not trust their government too much, and I, as an American have a healthy skepticism concerning what any administration tells me. Still, I hope the root of the whole affair doesn’t end up being a statement like this, made in some Pakistani jail:
“Please stop electrocuting my testicles! What? Only if I reveal a — OWWWWWW — terrorist plot — AAAAAAHH? All right — SCREEEECH! — the terrorists will be blowing up a plane with, with, oh man, I don’t know, hair gel! Yes! Hair gel!”… [Link]
Maybe the whole thing really was cooked up to de-mojofy Abhi’s game last weekend.
Update 1:
The British may have been explicitly pressured by the Americans to move faster than they wanted:
British officials knowledgeable about the case said British police were planning to continue to run surveillance for at least another week to try to obtain more evidence, while American officials pressured them to arrest the suspects sooner…In contrast to previous reports, one senior British official suggested an attack was not imminent, saying the suspects had not yet purchased any airline tickets.<
p>One senior British official said the Americans also argued over the timing of the arrest of suspected ringleader Rashid Rauf in Pakistan, warning that if he was not taken into custody immediately, the United States would “render” him or pressure the Pakistani government to arrest him. [Link]
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p>The same article also supports the idea that the plot was substantial, saying that they had experimented with a bomb in Pakistan:
Monitoring of Rauf, in particular, apparently played a critical role, revealing that the plotters had tested the explosive liquid mixture they planned to use at a location outside Britain. NBC News has previously reported that the explosive mixture was tested in Pakistan. The source said the suspects in Britain had obtained at least some of the materials for the explosive but had not yet actually prepared or mixed it. [Link]
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p>And more on the technical difficulties inherent in mixing a TATP bomb mid-air:
Making a quantity of TATP sufficient to bring down an airplane is not quite as simple as ducking into the toilet and mixing two harmless liquids together… Don’t forget to bring several frozen gel-packs (preferably in a Styrofoam chiller deceptively marked “perishable foods”), a thermometer, a large beaker, a stirring rod, and a medicine dropper. You’re going to need them.
It’s best to fly first class and order Champagne. The bucket full of ice water, which the airline ought to supply, might possibly be adequate – especially if you have those cold gel-packs handy to supplement the ice, and the Styrofoam chiller handy for insulation – to get you through the cookery without starting a fire in the lavvie.
Once the plane is over the ocean, very discreetly bring all of your gear into the toilet. You might need to make several trips to avoid drawing attention. Once your kit is in place, put a beaker containing the peroxide / acetone mixture into the ice water bath (Champagne bucket), and start adding the acid, drop by drop, while stirring constantly. Watch the reaction temperature carefully. The mixture will heat, and if it gets too hot, you’ll end up with a weak explosive. In fact, if it gets really hot, you’ll get a premature explosion possibly sufficient to kill you, but probably no one else.
After a few hours – assuming, by some miracle, that the fumes haven’t overcome you or alerted passengers or the flight crew to your activities – you’ll have a quantity of TATP with which to carry out your mission. Now all you need to do is dry it for an hour or two.
The genius of this scheme is that TATP is relatively easy to detonate. But you must make enough of it to crash the plane, and you must make it with care to assure potency. One needs quality stuff to commit “mass murder on an unimaginable scale,” as Deputy Police Commissioner Paul Stephenson put it. While it’s true that a slapdash concoction will explode, it’s unlikely to do more than blow out a few windows. At best, an infidel or two might be killed by the blast, and one or two others by flying debris as the cabin suddenly depressurizes, but that’s about all you’re likely to manage under the most favorable conditions possible. [Link]
well with security like this, and allowing a 12 year old sans ticket/passport to get onboard in england after this entire fiasco..the UK had to get it’s sh*t in gear..amd it also now has 10000 lost bags… ay carramba..traveling nowadays has become hellish..
about the entire hair gel plot.. don’t know how feasible it is… i just can’t comprehend how diabolical a human mind will go for terroristic activities… it is… not comprehensible to me…
cough
Regardless of what happens with the so called terror subjects, the damage is already been done to the airlines. The carriers that fly in and out of the UK to the US have seen numerous effects from this event: -countless delays on their flights, -customers calling in and taking up agents times on what they can and cant bring, -airlines having to pay for customers to stay at hotels causing them unneccesary financial strain, -management time educating airline staff on updating checked baggage policies (some airlines are allowing customers to check 3 bags, instead of the normal 2) -technology teams having to post advisories on websites and customer emails about the ‘heightened alert’
All this further propogates the paranoia with the event and media hype.
Did you know now you may be allowed to bring on board 4 ounces of liquid with you….
US gov is one the the wickedest, most corrupt govs in the world, along with the UK. The whole UN is set up to benefit these two. War is $$$,$$$,$$$,$$$(profits), so the gov will try to sell any excuse. This is the way of the EvilThree (i.e., US, UK, Zionists.) Now I must go say the pledge of allegiance…
There are a lot of “state secrets” and classified information that the gov doesn’t wan’t any citizen to know about. This isn’t how gov is supposed to function.
RK Khan, LAST warning. You are making overly general statements that are classic “troll” statements. People get sidetracked from the main discussion having to listen to your generalizing rants. This is not the place for that. Please refrain from such comments or we will simply delete them in the future. Thank you.
Some of this can be blamed on the differences in the way that MI-5 and US law enforcement works, which led to prehaps arresting the suspects too early:
Terror arrests are always a Catch 22: Act too early and they probably will not have advanced far enough to provide any real incriminating material. Act too late… well.
Cough Cough
cough cough cough [relevant only to ennis’s headline, rather than the main post, but there seems to be something virulent going around. i suspect biological terrorism.]
Ennis, this was a really good post and you gave a perspective that the BBC hasn’t given a lot of air-time to. Well done.
A lot has been said about the radicalization of Pakistani Moslems in the UK which leads to terrorism. Presumably driven by racism and the class system which leaves them as an underclass. But what perplexes me is why there are no Hindu terrorists, Sikh terrorists (ok..Air India Kanishka has nothing to do with the current situation!) or for that matter Bangladeshi Moslems planning to blow things up?
They too are minorities and go through the same experiences that Pakistanis go, so what is special about the Pakistani community that leaves them so radicalized?
Ever heard of the Tamil Tigers?
Be ready to be profiled biyatches!
King endorses ethnic profiling: House Homeland Security Chairman Peter King has endorsed requiring people of “Middle Eastern and South Asian” descent to undergo additional security checks because of their ethnicity and religion.
Ennis
You are missing the point…
Of course I have heard of the the Tamil Tigers. I have also heard of the Red Brigades, the IRA, Khalistan terrorists, and what have you… The question is, from a group of ethnic minorities how come a single religion (more specifically a single nation – Pakistan) could breed such radicalism.
I do not mean to troll, but that is legitimate question that Pakistani moslems should ask themselves.
Don’t worry. I’m sure they’ll allow passengers claiming to be non-muslim to simply submit for a voluntary foreskin check at security …
meanwhile yesterday:
SM has already discussed this issue several times previously, but in summary:
“Arabization” of Islam amongst the British (South Asian) Muslim community, fuelled by Middle Eastern financing of British mosques. Influx of “radical” clerics from the Middle East preaching to predominantly South Asian audiences.
Extremist Muslim groups in the UK fanning the flames since at least the early 90s.
Global events post-9/11.
“Ummah” mindset — sympathy with co-religionists worldwide before any consideration for fellow British citizens.
Sufficently large numbers in the modern-day British Pakistani population for many to live predominantly/completely segregated lives from the rest of British society. Also increases the likelihood of unfounded paranoia, conspiracy theories, misinformation, erroneous opinions/assumptions about the rest of society.
Some aspects of Islam provide greater material for radicalisation compared to Hinduism or Sikhism (at least with regards to how British desis practice these religions).
Prejudice against the West, along with a grudge about colonial times, on the part of the older generation probably plays some part too in shaping the younger Muslims’ views and attitudes towards the West (particularly towards white people, and most of all in terms of issues concerning “morality”). This is fairly common amongst older desis of all religious backgrounds.
Jai
excellent points!
could you point me to some of the threads you think are worth reading?
MIT Guy,
There have been many threads discussing this issue during SM’s history (especially post-7/7) — Ennis or one of the other Mutineers would be better sources of guidance with regards to which of the earlier threads would be appropriate — but recent discussions you may wish to read are “The Statistics of Fear” (especially my posts #57 onwards) and “Galluping distrust of American Muslims in the USA” (my own comments are #76 & 77, the latter of which includes links to the British “Pickled Politics” group discussion blog which also presently has multiple, ongoing debates on the matter).
What you call as “arabization” is what the Wahaabis/”Tablighi-Jamaat”/related folks call reverting back to the original faith getting rid of “idolatory practices” and I’m afraid they are right.. I do follow a few debates (available online in the Tamil Muslim community) between “wahaabis” and “sufis”.. it is basically an arab cult and I think wahaabis have a point.
Let’s try to stay on topic — MIT Guy asked a legit question and Jai gave some very good answers especially referring to other threads that are more directly about this. The “Galluping distrust” thread is recent and would be a good place for this theme. I’d request that folks try not to turn the present thread, which is basically about specific, practical threat assessment and the politics thereof, into a discussion of Islam. Thanks…
I wouldn’t read too much into the 2% conviction rate. That’s more or less consistent with conviction rates for criminal offences generally in the UK – seldom above 7% or 8% even for mundane crimes without the added complexity of terrorism charges.
Personally, I’ll worry when the conviction rate is 98%!
Yes, the security services have got it wrong in the past, but they have also got it right. I’ll reserve judgement.
Jai, Sid, I didn’t know you guys hung out here.
Don – agreed. I don’t want to jump to judgement on either side. However, since I spent all day a week ago following and writing developments in the case as it unfolded, I thought it was only reasonable to write at least one post about some of the doubts that have developed as well.
Ennis, If you wanted to identify a Hindu terrorist group, you would have been better off picking something like the Bajrang Dal. The LTTE engages in terrorist activities, but it is secular with a significant # of the leadership (e.g. Anton) from the Christian community. The nature of the conflict in Sri Lanka is ethnic/linguistic, not religious. People are not fighting over theological differences. The killings of monks & attempts to blow up relic shrines has more to do with the deep association of monks with elements of the Sinhalese right wing.
As an aside, my vision for Sri Lanka is a unified multi-ethnic nation…I hope no one interprets these statements as pro-Tamil or pro-Sinhalese. I realize that this has nothing to do with the original post, but it gets annoying when reporters & even SAJA members characterize the conflict this way when most academics disagree.
Hi Don,
{I’m assuming you’re the “Don” from Pickled Politics 😉 }
Sepia Mutiny is actually my main port of call (I’m sure you must have seen me mention this website quite a few times in my occasional posts on Pickled Politics). It’s nice to see you’ve stumbled across it too 😉
“Siddhartha” on SM is actually American — he’s not the guy over on PP.
By the way, I replied to your message on the original “Letter” thread on PP — thanks for supplying that Times link about Shahid Malik.
the terrorists are better off behind bars. I don’t want to be blown up by some twisted person with a twisted ideology.
Don and Ennis —
On conviction rates in the UK, are you sure about that? Low conviction rates often are a sign that the standards for indictment are not stringent enough. If you require a higher threshold for indictment/arrest — as should be the case — then you should see higher conviction rates and not necessarily be disturbed by that from an innocence perspective, since it means a higher likelihood that the “right” people (i.e., the guilty) are the ones who are facing criminal charges.
In India, for example, the conviction rates are extremely low in terrorism cases (on the order of 2 percent under TADA, and not much better under POTA) because too many people were arrested and charged under those laws who actually are guilty of nothing. Even in ordinary criminal cases the conviction rates are quite low in India — and when I saw low, I mean 35 percent are so. My understanding has been that 35 percent is quite low by developed nation standards — but not because developed nations are more draconian about convictions. Rather, the discrepancy is attributable in part to the lack of the police’s investigative and forensic capacity, which makes it hard to convict the guilty, but also in part because lots of people are arrested and charged who are not guilty of anything (on account of police extortion, corruption, etc) — in other words, a low threshold to detain/arrest and charge that sweeps in too many innocent people.
So I’m surprised to see you invoke 7-8 percent as the conviction rate in ordinary cases in the UK. What are your sources for those numbers? What are the numerators and denomiators? I’d be interested in seeing them — maybe there isn’t uniformity in how those statistics are being defined cross-nationally, or maybe we’re not looking at the same kinds of statistics. Or of course maybe I’m just missing something along the way somewhere.
Thanks!
also, ennis — i know who craig murray is, but who is the “andrew” who wrote the post to which you linked that referenced the low conviction rates? not clear from craig murray’s blog….
The threat may be exaggerated by some, downplayed by others but the threat is real.
?? The conviction rates from from Craig Murray’s post. Any time you see a block quote, you can click on the “[Link]” at the end to go to the source that that quote was taken from. I’m very uptight about doing this.
Ennis, right, I got that — and rest assured that I appreciate your uptightness enormously. 🙂 (Hence, my question about “andrew” posting on Murray’s blog — you know who he is?) But I also was wondering where Don got his statistics, and I addressed the comment more generally to you as well simply because you were part of that colloquy.
Had I thought about it and been more uptight, I would have said “Don (and Ennis)”. 🙂
A commenter on another blog I read made a comment like, “Here’s my forecast–heavy warnings all fall, dissipating in November.. ..”
Pied pPper,
For a general overview, try;
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,,1784623,00.html
For more details, google for yourself.
Admistrator, Has anyone taken the time to read R.K.Khan’s comments about Jews on his blogs? If he was a white guy making the same remarks, would he still be permitted to comment here? As far as I’m concerned, he’s as racist as a white supremacist – why are you permitting him to comment here?
It isn’t our policy to research each person who comments here. If it were, I’d never have time to feed the monkeys, and they would get very upset. Instead of judging somebody’s private behavior, we instead ban people only when their public behavior exceeds certain proscribed bounds.
If you’re asking, we strongly disapprove of anti-semitism.
If it were, I’d never have time to feed the monkeys, and they would get very upset.
That would be anti-simianism, just as reprehensible
also known as anti-macaca….
thanks don. as i suspected, i think we’re comparing apples and oranges. at least some of the conviction rates compiled by the observer, and perhaps all of them, seem to be expressed as a percentage of total reported crimes. the statistics cited by ennis (and that i am familiar with the indian context) are expressed as a percentage of individuals arrested (or charged/indicted). measuring somewhat different (if related) things.
it’s scary….. there are no such security checks in buses and trains.. There’s no way to prevent these hair-gel type terrorists if they wanted to bomb a bus or a train. Also, these terrorists seem to have lot of money.. what prevents them from OWNING an Airline ? They can secretly buy off an existing airline or start a new one with the help of some front companies. Let’s say this airline flies to US and Europe. They can easily skip security checks one day and fly planes into building or military targets.