Indian Elections: Can You Help Make Sense Of Them?

I realized five years ago, when the Congress Party came back into power after everyone had seemingly given them up for dead, that Indian politics is way too complicated to try and predict, especially from the outside.

Still, I wonder if readers have been coming across insightful articles or websites that explain what is happening in individual states or regions of the country, or analyze trends in a useful way. If so, could you put your recommendations in the comments below?

Here are two things I’ve read in the past day that I thought were interesting: the New York Times, on Narendra Modi, and Soutik Biswas, at the BBC, on why the 26/11 terrorist attack in Mumbai is not likely to be a national election issue.

This time around, it seems impossible to read too much into what is happening on any given day. Nor does it seems necessary to pay all that much attention to the to and fro between the Congress Leaders, the BJP leaders, and third front leaders. It doesn’t seem particularly consequential in terms of how people vote. As far as I can tell, there’s nothing remotely similar to the glut of daily tracking polls we had in the U.S. with the elections last year, nor are there websites like 538.com, which synthesized all the polling data coming in. (Are there such polls and websites? Have I simply been missing them?)

It does seem clear that the steady, incremental shift from national to regional politics is continuing in the current election. On the one hand, that is bad, because it means that whatever government comes to power at the center will be inherently weak and coalition-based. On the other hand, that weakness at the center can also be a good thing in terms of maintaining overall stability — not always easy in a country with 1 billion people. Even if a far-right or far-left party comes into power next month, they will not be able to do anything too drastic for fear of losing coalition support.

Second, it seems like “Hindutva” has seemingly lost some of its force as a national issue. The BJP and its allies might still prevail, but they’re playing the “nationalism” card more than the communal card.

Third, caste politics seems to be more prevalent than ever. I find that to be one of the most depressing and deadening things about Indian politics.

Fourth, Varun Gandhi is Ram, Shashi Tharoor is on bail, and Sanjay Dutt’s daughter in New York is pissed at him.

255 thoughts on “Indian Elections: Can You Help Make Sense Of Them?

  1. I’m just back from India and have only caught the tail end of this discussion on language/national identity. What I noticed in rural Tamilnadu this time was that many people both knew and were interested in conversing in Hindi. I look North Indian so people–shop keepers, drivers– usually spoke to me in Hindi. Of course this driver class is comprised of young men who want to get ahead and pragmatism is part of it. I don’t think this will make Ponniyin happy.

    I have heard the stories (and personal anecdotes) before of how rural folks in Tamilnadu are so interested in learning Hindi to get ahead. Why should that make me unhappy? 🙂

  2. I have heard the stories (and personal anecdotes) before of how rural folks in Tamilnadu are so interested in learning Hindi to get ahead. Why should that make me unhappy? 🙂

    Possession is 9/10ths the law or something like that might be a factor in a language census taken 50 years from now. But of course, as you pointed out, my stories are only anecdotal.

    In Gujarat and Rajasthan (4 days worth of observation) I noticed that all the public service/road signs were in Hindi. There was no English. I dunno, I think Hindi is going to become the functional language of India with Indian English coming in a distant second.

  3. Possession is 9/10ths the law or something like that might be a factor in a language census taken 50 years from now.

    Can you explain what the above sentence means?. Thanks.

  4. I think George Fernandes knows Tamil along with many other languages. He is the trouble shooter and convenor of the NDA.

    Well he comes from the Tulu belt; so a facility with languages is to be expected. The odd thing was that the party whose rally he was speaking at was opposed to the NDa but he was appearing as a guest speaker – I couldn’t work it out. His stock has run out anyway now; with the problems he has within his own party.

    In Gujarat and Rajasthan (4 days worth of observation) I noticed that all the public service/road signs were in Hindi. There was no English. I dunno, I think Hindi is going to become the functional language of India with Indian English coming in a distant second.

    Well Rajasthan, is hardly a surprise I would have thought. Hindi will have less traction in places where there is antagonism towards it which I would guess means the South or the East. You won’t see many signs, if any in Hindi, Kolkata for example even though many can converse in Hindi.

    It doesn’t mean mean that people won’t speak or use it – just that there will be resistance if it somehow is forced to become the sole official language. There are also some problems in translating some of the more administrative technical concepts; I remember from looking at the NREGA documents and signs a lot was done in English where Hindi couldn’t adequately cover the exact meaning.

  5. I am as lost as Amardeep. It seems to be a dull election. and with all the hullaboo about the “internet factor”, I am not seeing the same excitement about the elections on the itnernet, as I was used to from the Prannoy Roy days.

  6. Obama’s comment of Buffalo Vs. Bangalore is attracting attention in the election. It was a mindless and divisive comment anyway. Its one thing to protect American interests but quite another to use rhetoric which can cause tensions in relations with a friendly country. No wonder most Indians preferred Bush. India will also come under pressure from Obama/democrats because of his Af-Pak policy. Obama will want concessions from India vis-a-vis Pak in return for Pak’s help w/ Taliban. Looks like Indo-US friendly ties are going to dim in the near future.

    On a side note, i am surprised that SM has chosen not to write up a post on Obama’s rhetoric.

  7. Sourav, you’re right. It is indeed a pity that there isn’t any excitement about the election when there are so many important issues.

  8. Conrad,

    Yes, anoint yourself as high lord of journalistic reliability, when, newsflash, among the writers I cited were B. Raman, a former high ranking intelligence official, and Brahma Chellaney, India’s most respected security expert. So seriously dude, you really need to stop putting down highly respected writers when you really don’t know what you’re talking about here…it’s a very transparent attempt to avoid facing off against facts to distract people from noticing your lack of understanding of a topic. Bottomline, I’m still citing authorities, you’re just inventing facts and citing yourself.

    1.Bangladesh-Are you kidding me? There are plenty of experts, respected first hand journalistic accounts corroborating what I have cited (and posted above). You’re just lying through your teeth here. Obv your idyllic childhood decade(s) ago controverts first hand accounts from respected intelligence officials, journalists, and strategists…

    2 Pakistan – Oh, so now you qualify it by talking about “Mass desertions” . All I did was discussion how there’ve been desertions within the Pakistani army because Pashtuns in the army don’t like fighting their own. This is contributing to the instability in Pakistan and the increased likelihood of a Taliban takeover of that country. There are daily articles on that topic by global security strategists. I have provided the insight of intelligence officials on that. You have privileged us again by citing yourself as authority…

    1. China- Right Conrad, everyone is a paranoid idiot but you. Only you have access to “the truth”. The man who denies bangladeshi infiltration and islamisation of assamese and w.bengal districts is obv the unchallenged authority on every topic. Please oh enlightened one, bestow upon us the wisdom that you have which indian generals and american strategists don’t have….I’m sure your crystal ball should have also told you that that’s part of the reason why the war was fought and wrapped up in the winter…to avoid having to fight china after the passes in ladakh melted…next i suppose you’ll be telling me that Operation Brasstacks was not exploring the possibility of breaking up W. Pakistan either…

    Conrad:

    I don’t think Manekshaw or any other Indian general at the time could have seriously entertained the idea that India could have fought on two fronts; the war would have been over since we would have had to declare a ceasefire very quickly.

    India did fight a war on two fronts…W and E Pakistan. Good job, Conrad.

    Dude, you obv don’t have a grasp of political science or IR. China’s One Child policy has made the imbalance far worse than grass roots sex selection in India. I would cite a myriad of authorities writing about how the PRC’s authority is rooted in economic benefit unlike the Indian governments, and how that makes it far more vulnerable to internal revolution (which even you were concerned about here) but obv, none of them have the gravitas of our anointed enlightened one who apparently trumps all…but you may continue flying off the handle

    Khushwant Singh-Yes, celebrated author and Padma Bhushan and Padma Vibhushan recipient Khuswant Singh is clearly less qualified to comment on the Sikh and Indian experiences than the rather facts-challenged sepia commenter Conrad Barwa who scribbled some uncited drivel about Khushwant (unrelated to KPS Gill) in yet another attempt to slime experts…

    Shourie- Actually, you are misrepresenting here too. I brought up “people of national vision and thinking” such as Brahma Chellaney and Arun Shourie to counter you claim about political parties, not about electability. I wrote that here:

    Satyajit Wry:

    Yes, politics is about interest, but it is also about balancing the interest to achieve the greater good. That’s the point of statecraft. By simply brushing all parties as only beholden to parochial interest does a disfavor to the one party with an actual national agenda. So yes, address the realities, but don’t mischaracterize them either. There are people like Brahma Chellaney, KPS Gill, and Arun Shourie with truly national vision and thinking. If you want to change the system start voting for parties who abjure nepotism and caste politics and seek out a genuine national agenda, don’t just dismiss them out of ennui or in an attempt to be fashionable. Or if you disdain them so much as many of our “secular” people here do, at the very least, lobby your party of choice to change their nepotist and parochial ways. Politics is as much about changing the system as it is about working within it.

    You tried to talk about electability in an attempt to smear KPS Gill and Arun Shourie, which failed. Tsk tsk. And a democracy, for your information, needs people who can motivate voters and people who can devise good national policy. You need politicians, administrators, and security specialists. So your point makes absolutely no sense. You can have your Vajpayees to draw mass crowds and your Shouries and Chellaneys to devise sound national policy that your KPS Gills can implement. The fact that you think it’s either or for you really shows how barren your thinking is.

    Hindi. This topic has been debated ad nauseaum on this page and my fellow debater and i exchanged some good insights but agreed to focus on other more pressing matters, like bangladeshi islamist infiltration which you rather oddly choose to deny. In response to your typically ill-thought out answers, however, here is my condensed response:

    1. 680,000,000 hindi speakers vs a few million english speakers
    2. English far and away privileges the urban and disadvantages the rural. Talk of hindi domination is just a canard to continue to privilege urbanites over rural villagers
    3. Link language arguments are silly. Should the EU then rely on Turkish so that French feelings about Anglo-Saxons could be assuaged?
    4. Already used in the army. So wait, the rural tamilian or telugu should be disadvantaged if he wants to have a career in the army then? Orders should be given out in hindi while strategy devised in english? yeah that shouldn’t make for problems.
    5. English has no “roots” in the south either. It was just a language that had to be learnt for advancement during the British Raj. Hindi is a language which should be learned for national unity, so that everyone from Kashmir to Kanyakumari can have a basis for conversation. Hindi cinema has already laid the seed for that. Hindi is also the Indian language best suited for nationwide administration due to its overwhelming numbers.
    6. A majority doesn’t oppose hindi, only a vocal minority does.

    (Ponniyin, I’m still observing our little armistice, just responding to Conrad)

  9. conrad, excellent points in comment #138, especially in handling the foul stench of bs that are wry’s comments – the wry who is so afraid of the gaping holes in his “logic” that he begs others to not discuss topics where they might disagree with him, or unilaterally (and of course arbitrarily) deems them off topic, or throws around disgusting smears in an orgy of circular logic.

  10. (Ponniyin, I’m still observing our little armistice,

    hilarious pusillanimity!

  11. (Comment Continued)

    Internal Division – Yes, continue to prevaricate, cause I wrote that it was the “SOLE” factor… It was the main factor, from which everything else sprung from. In contrast with you who wrote this:

    “Why and how it achieved supremacy is a difficult question to answer, fobbing it off simplistically on a whinging nostalgia for Mughal power is simplistic. Both in terms of numbers and weaponry it was equable if not often inferior to indigenous Indian forces. But this is a separate and rather huge topic; the blunt matter is that nowhere else in Asia was any Asian power able to resist European colonialism, this indicates that India at the time was very much part of the norm rather than exceptional and that something else was at work here which made Asian regime svulnerable to external predation. Political disunity was a factor but not the only one or the determing one; since determined and unified regimes elsewhere also caved in. The only partial exception was Afghanistan and that is a special case.”

    Conrad, yes, because no one else was able to resist, Indian therefore couldn’t resist either. Simply scintillating logic…you really should write a history book…

  12. Sea supremacy contributed, but even here, the British had defeats inflicted on them by the Maratha General Kanhoji Angria. Defeats on land, spurred by internal divisions within the Maratha confederacy, ultimately destroyed the Maratha Empire. Sea supremacy doesn’t help you project deep inside land, only in the littoral. And even on land, the british had routine defeats inflicted on them by Tipu Sultan. It was only after the British allied with the Nizam and the Marathas that Tipu was overthrown. And again, your own ignorance about Mughal military history is telling:

    On Josiah Childs, Governor of the EIC in London

    Begin Quote

    Meanwhile, the Child in Bombay boasted that if Aurangzeb chose to send the admiral of his fleet against him he would blow him off with the wind of his bum. Aurangzeb did so, and Child’s War–thus spread from one extremity of the Mughal Empire to the other. In early 1689 Sidi Yakub, the African who commanded a west coast fleet which served as the Mughal marine, took Bombay island completely by surprise. The English were besieged in Bombay Castle for most of the year and eventually capitulated.

    The Company’s envoys, who in 1690 journeyed up to the imperial encampment to plead for pardon, did so with their hands tied in more ways than one. As a further indignity they were made to prostrate themselves before the emperor. But Aurangzeb was not unaware of the value of their trade nor of the danger of their making common cause with the Marathas. For a massive indemnity and promises of better conduct in the future, he graciously agreed to the restoration of their trading privileges and the withdrawal of his troops. In the same spirit of forgive and forget, the Company’s Bengal establishment was allowed to return to the Hughli river where it made a permanent settlement at Calcutta and began the fortifications of its ‘Fort William’. With the first Anglo-Indian war having been so decisively won by the Mughal empire, there was no mention of the farman

    End Quote

    Keay, John. India: A History. p.372. New York: Grove Press. 2000

  13. Conrad, buddy, you really need to study up…

    And accusing me of manufacturing bs is really just the last option of the desperate. Development and mass literacy is absolutely a necessity for India. But it is something that your apparent party of choice, the Congress, has been accused repeatedly of preventing in order to have an uneducated electorate that can be easily manipulated to vote for them. That’s what I was referring to if you need me to spell things out again…

    11) I never said there wasn’t and Indian identity please point out where I supposedly made this claim. Simply rubbish.

    Conrad: The simple fact of the matter is that there isn’t a single Indian identity that can easily fit everyone

    I’ve cited respected authorities and provided links and citations in this debate, you’ve citing yourself and tried to smear these authorities. Gee, I wonder who has more credibility…

    Finally, I have had a number of productive and respectful discussions with commenters on these pages. The only difference here is that you are willing to prevaricate and smear authorities in order to save face and advance your prejudices. I argue fact, you create fiction…

    I am more than happy to have a polite and productive exchange of ideas, but you have to be willing to honestly debate and not smear respected experts when it’s inconvenient for your worldview. If you are ready to do that, Conrad, you know where to find me. Adieu

  14. d not smear respected experts when it’s inconvenient for your worldview

    wry, i am not conrad. also, a smear is when you say something that is false to discredit somebody – like you did with tenali, or with anybody who disagrees with you (as ambi pointed out earlier). arun shourie’s views are in the public record, and when you put him out there as a respected intellectual in the context of elections, we should discuss the totality of his ideas, not just what you would like to see discussed in your mutual admiration society.

  15. Garv

    Conrad called Arun Shourie an idiot and said that B. Raman and Brahma Chellaney are not respectable or reliable and did not provide any facts to contradict. When you level untenable charges against somebody that is called a smear.

    Tenali accused people of just spouting nationalist propaganda and he continued to propagate british canards. I was mocking that. That is not called smearing that is called satire.

    Ponniyin and Mr. X have polar opposite views on hindi, but I still spoke with respect. AV and I had differing views as well, but we were also polite with each other. It is only when commenters purposefully misrepresent things and smear respected writers that I mock them.

    I know you may not necessarily comprehend everything we talk about here on sepia and are prone to trollery and the frequent malaprop, but that’s ok, I understand. Please let me know if there is anything else for which you need clarification. We are more than happy to explain things to you when you don’t understand. We’re all here to help you.

  16. I know you may not necessarily comprehend everything we talk about here on sepia and are prone to trollery and the frequent malaprop, but that’s ok, I understand. Please let me know if there is anything else for which you need clarification. We are more than happy to explain things to you when you don’t understand. We’re all here to help you.

    satyajit, apparently you are capable of “satire” only when you spout it. of course, a lot of your comments seem to be pretty much satire, so you are quite well versed with that art form.

    e are more than happy to explain things to you when you don’t understand. We’re all here to help you.

    don’t worry, i got it without the help of your indoctrination committee.

  17. Garv, What part of Arun Shourie’s ideas hurt your delicate sensibilities? Is all this angst, flailing of the arms and gnashing of the teeth just because he favours a nationalist politician that you think is the kala bandar? Here, take this mirror and ‘andar jhaanko’

  18. What part of Arun Shourie’s ideas hurt your delicate sensibilities?

    hindutva craziness. but i repeat myself.

    Is all this angst, flailing of the arms and gnashing of the teeth just because he favours a nationalist politician that you think is the kala bandar?

    yes, modi offends my tender sensibilities. of a govt not killing people because they are of the wrong religion.

  19. …And a lot of my comments also include informed thought from highly respected commentators, such as Pratap Bhanu Mehta, Brahma Chellaney, B. Raman, Kanchan Lakshman and Wilson John–who, surprise, are affiliated with Nonpartisan think tanks. I just hope that your “secular” indoctrination committee managed to teach you the difference between satire and expert opinion.

  20. btw, UPA seems to have read the writing on the wall, i.e the stock of NDA is on the upswing- Witnessed the sullen, uncharacteristically humourless rantings of Lalu and Rabri, and the desperate atempts by Rahul Baba, NDTV and all other UPA hangers on to woo Nitish Kumar. The poor man keeps repeating ‘I’m firmly with the NDA’, even as journalists pop up everywhere- by his bedside, in his toilet, at his helicopter landing strip etc, asking him if he would support a con-gress govt. Lalu’s foul mouthed diatribe against BJP, NaMo, Nitish etc mainly consisted of a series of bleeped out expletives. Pathetic. It’s going to be very close this time, and a huge factor would be to be invited first to form the govt. UPA has an advatage there, with Mrs Patil in the Rashtrapati Bhavan.

  21. But the Congress Party doesn’t offend your tender sensibilities of a govt not killing people because they are of the wrong religion …

    did i ever say anything of the sort? oops, you read your line in the dialogue book without the cue…

  22. Dhanyavad for bringing us back on topic, Lupus. Yeah I agree, Pratibha Patil at Rashtrapati is a huge concern. A fair question that was brought up was what would happen in the event that the BJP is the largest Single party, the NDA the largest pre-poll alliance, but Cong somehow manages to cobble the numbers after the election due to the Left? Or what about if the NDA is the largest pre-poll but Cong is somehow the largest single party. With whom will Pratibha go with then? Between that, and Navin Chawla (a Sanjay Gandhi chamcha, btw Conrad) as CEC, I am concerned about the integrity of this election.

  23. I am concerned about the integrity of this election.

    why are the bjp apologists so insecure?

  24. of a govt not killing people because they are of the wrong religion.

    So, Congress is out of your list, I assume?

  25. That’s the point, Garv. You attack anyone supporting the BJP as “Modi” supporters, when almost 300 hindus died in the gujarat riots (along with the 700 muslims) and 58 hindus (mostly women and children) were burned to death. For some reason, you don’t mention the hindus who died, hmmm….

    The Congress party commits an actual One-way pogrom of the most barbaric variety, butchering 3,000 Sikhs, and you tacitly support them. Could it be because your ever so reviled RSS actually protected and sheltered sikh men, women, and children?

    Garv: “AGGGH…cognitive dissonance…too much…head must implode”…

    nah, probably not an accurate characterization since cognitive dissonance is the essence of pseudo-secularism…

  26. ou attack anyone supporting the BJP as “Modi” supporters, when almost 300 hindus died in the gujarat riots (along with the 700 muslims) and 58 hindus (mostly women and children) were burned to death. For some reason, you don’t mention the hindus who died, hmmm….

    really? you guys need to get some better excuses. is modi incompetent or a killer? which one is he?

    cognitive dissonance is the essence of pseudo-secularism…

    i wondered how long it would take for you to roll out the pseudosec word. BUSTED!

  27. Actually Garv, you’re the one coming up with excuses. I just pointed out that 300 hindus died in the Gujarat riots. A fact ignored by you and Teesta Setalvad, and a host of other writers for whom hindu life apparently has not inherent worth worthy of mention.

    …and my using the world Pseudo-secular really doesn’t change how contradictory your own views are. I just pointed out the fact that you apparently are against any party that kills people for being of the wrong religion but apparently support the congress even though it actually perpetrated a barbaric pogrom against 3,000 innocent sikhs….”BUSTED”!

    But that’s ok, please continue vainly attempting to distract the reader of your hypocrisy…

  28. But that’s ok, please continue vainly attempting to distract the reader of your hypocrisy…

    please educate me, wise one, like you promised. is modi incompetent or a killer?

  29. i

    wondered how long it would take for you to roll out the pseudosec word. BUSTED!
    bjp apologists
    indoctrination committee.
    crypto sympathies.

    You do not come out smelling of roses yourself, garv.

    Satyajit, your lingo tells me that you have been to one of my favourite websites, right?

  30. He is neither. Happy now?

    can’t maintain law and order and over a 1000 people die in anti muslim riots… nothing to see here, move on, eh? bjp apologist indeed.

  31. You do not come out smelling of roses yourself, garv.

    do not forget “hindutva craziness”.

  32. Satyajit Wry,

    I don’t think we will agree on the issues raised so lets just leave it at that. I find your representation of what I have said and come of the comments you have both dishonest and ignorant. Also I just want to add I don’t know where you get the idea that I am a Congress supporter – you clearly CAN’T READ since I have said that the demise of this party would be good for Indian politics and that it is nothing but a vehicle for the Family’s interests – where from this you get that I support the Congress is beyond me. Maybe instead of making these bizarre assertions you might want to come up with some actual evidence otherwise restrain yourself to actually commenting on facts.

    In either case, most of the issues raised are either historical or FP related and they have little salience for most voters in the current elections and little bearing on Amardeep’s original post so I we should probably stick to matters at hand rather than go over the smae old ground repeatedly.

  33. answer mine first, and your lesson will begin. Are the Nehru Gandhis complicit in the butchery of 3,000 sikhs? Or is it just an undeserving dynasty led by an italian woman with no skills and barely a hs education doing whatever it takes to remain in power and loot/destroy the country?

  34. find your representation of what I have said and come of the comments you have both dishonest and ignorant. Also I just want to add I don’t know where you get the idea that I am a Congress supporter – you clearly CAN’T READ since I have said that the demise of this party would be good for Indian politics and that it is nothing but a vehicle for the Family’s interests – where from this you get that I support the Congress is beyond me.

    conrad, please excuse wry-ji. he is just reading line by line from the dialogue book provided to him by his indoctrination committee. do not fault him for being unable to respond to an absence of the usual cues anticipated by his gurus.

    Are the Nehru Gandhis complicit in the butchery of 3,000 sikhs?

    rajiv gandhi is thoroughly complicit and never got a full public judgment for his statement about a tree falling.

  35. Or is it just an undeserving dynasty led by an italian woman with no skills and barely a hs education doing whatever it takes to remain in power and loot/destroy the country?

    i find it hard to get my khaki chaddis into a bunch because the leader is a woman. or because she is italian. i only find it sad that the only party with a reasonable national level infrastructure today – and which is important to keep the poison of hindutva/bjp out of power – is being run into the ground by a family that clings on and on and demands unstinting loyalty.

  36. Wow, the BJP has totally taken over Sepia. I find this thread so bizzare. Satyajit Wry has no idea what he’s talking about and claims he’s some sort of IR expert, despite not quoting reliable, objective, third party sources (no Washington Post, New York Times, he goes staight to rediff.com). Whoever he is, probably some IT guy somewhere, he clearly knows nothing about Pakistan so I would appreciate he leave the country alone. Adieu (in his own really-obnoxious way of speaking)

  37. Here are some facts for you, garv (collected from different internet sources and blogs)

    1. The Congress Union Minister of State for Home, Shriprakash Jaiswal in Parliament on 11 May 2005 said that 790 Muslims and 254 Hindus were killed in the riots. This is hardly consistent with a Muslim genocide.

    2. The entire police force of 70,000 was deployed in Gujarat on 27 February itself in apprehension of riots. (The Hindustan Times Feb 28, 2002). Gujarat police fired more than 4,000 rounds in the first three days alone. Altogether the police arrested more than 27,000 people. National Minorities Commission Chairman John Joseph noted, “As on April 6, 126 persons were killed in police firing, of which 77 were Hindus.” (The Telegraph, April 21, 2002.). This does not tally with the accusation of a deliberately inactive police force.

    3. “Shoot-at-sight” orders had been given in Godhra on February 27 itself. (Times Of India, Feb 27, 2002). 827 preventive arrests were made on the evening of February 27 itself, on the Chief Minister’s order. The State Government deployed the Rapid Action Force in Ahmedabad and other sensitive areas and the Centre sent in CRPF personnel, on February 27 itself even before a single riot had taken place. (The Indian Express, Feb 28, 2002)

    4. Modi frantically called the Army units to Ahmedabad on February 28th (The Hindu, March 1, 2002). Army units started arriving in Ahmedabad on the night of February 28th. On 1st and 2nd March 2002, riots took place even in places where the Indian Army was present, i.e. Ahmedabad and Vadodara, and close to 100 people each were killed, despite the presence of the Indian Army.

    5. Only 2 deaths were reported on 3rd March in the entire state, and the main violence ended on 3rd March 2002. After 3rd March 2002, riots took place almost entirely in those places where the Army was posted. Subsequently there were 157 riots and all of them were started by Muslim groups (India Today, June 24, 2002).

    6. As early as 5 March 2002, out of the 98 relief / refugee camps set up in the state, 85 were for the Muslims and 13 were for the Hindus. As on 17 March 2002, as per The Times of India, 10,000 Hindus were rendered homeless in Ahmedabad alone. As on 25 April 2002, out of the 1 lakh 40 thousand refugees, some 1 lakh were Muslims and 40 thousand were Hindus. Again this is not consistent with the unilateral Muslim sufferings that have been portrayed.

    The elephant in the room is the actual Godhara train burning incident, which triggered the riots. Who was behind it? It is widely beileved that it was instigated by local Con-gress elements. Not surprising, judging by their past behaviour. Of course, you would naturally be more inclined to believe in the ‘gas stove burst’ or ‘they committed mass suicide’ versions.

    Congress mole indeed.

  38. ok, lupus, got it. modi is incompetent. 1000 people died on his watch, the majority of them muslims.

  39. Conrad called Arun Shourie an idiot and said that B. Raman and Brahma Chellaney are not respectable or reliable and did not provide any facts to contradict. When you level untenable charges against somebody that is called a smear.

    Just to correct some things there; I actually called Arun Shourie a “political idiot” and then set out my reasons for doing so which I think are valid and which I am happy to stand by; I wouldn’t call Shourie an idiot in general terms since he is actually quite a capable economist who made some modest but clear contributions to several technical debates on economic modelling; but plenty of otherwise intelligent people can be political idiots of which Shourie is one. I don’t see why the words of Raman or Chellaney need to be given much credence over other security analysits and journalists who disagree with them. I would rate Praveen Swami, Rahul Bedi and Praveen Sawhney as better but it is a matter of choice really. There is frequently little agreement on these issues amongst experts as well. The views on most things I have argued can be found in the official histories of the 1965 and the 1971 wars by Maj.Gen. (Retd.) V.K. Singh so they aren’t new or unheard (but obviosuly not uncontested either). Three other works I would recommend are: Fidelity and Honour: The Indian Amry from the Seventeenth to the Twenty-First Century by Lt.Gen (Retd.) S.L. Menezes, Militarism in India by Apurba Kundu and Protracted Contest: Sino-Indian Rivalry in the Twentieth Century by John Garver. Other authors like Alistair Lamb and Eric Margolis express a view closer to your own but not one which I agree with. IR and defence studies are an inexact science so you can’t just quote a expert whose views happen to agree with your own and then think you have reached a definite conclusion; it isn’t quite that simple.

  40. Conrad,

    Your accusations of ignorance and dishonesty are very disingenuous and are somewhat comic considering your inability source any of your odd assertions and your attempted smears on the experts whom I have presented. Sadly you are guilty of the exact charges you are baselessly leveling against me. I am always happy to debate or discuss with people who speak in good faith.

    Our original discussion was about the regionalisation of politics–good or bad. I said bad. Within that framework, there are only two real choices, the BJP or the Congress (since a Left/Third front is unlikely). You have repeatedly chastised the BJP and have relegated it to the dustbin of “all national parties are bad”. Unless you are advocating abstaining from voting, there is only one other real choice here: Congress/UPA. So my associating you with that party (Congress) only makes sense given your statements since you haven’t taken a stand in favor of any political party.

    If, however, you do abstain from voting (since you claim to dislike both) that is even worse since you are not suggesting, pushing for or strengthening an alternative. So in short, you haven’t really taken a stand on a party, just composed fiction in an attempt to contradict my position on regionalism and people of national vision in the BJP.

    I have provided ample evidence. Instead of digesting what experts have written, you decided to smear them as unreliable and did not provide any evidence for your comments….

    The fact that you think the rise of China, potential collapse of Pakistan, or Bangladeshi migration are not salient to the election only demonstrate the problems with the national discourse and your sense of political understanding. These are very real issues for the country which voters absolutely must consider. Their futures have more to do with that than whether Rahul Gandhi’s youth makes him ideal to lead the nation because the youth should lead, because India is young, and the Youth, who have Youth must lead, and vote for the Congress because between the Abdullah, Scindia, and Gandhi dynasties we have Youth, and the Youth must vote for Youth…

    But whatever face-saving post you need to get out of the debate is fine with me…You and I had a more polite and constructive discussion on another topic, on another thread. If you would like to change your approach in the future, you know where to find me.

  41. ok, lupus, got it. modi is incompetent

    Did you even read the above post? Can you even read?

  42. Can you even read?

    sorry, could you put that in bigger print please?

    The elephant in the room is the actual Godhara train burning incident

    oh, you mean the only incident in the whole saga in which the modi govt saw fit to use pota – struck down by the courts, of course – despite the massive riots led by vhp/bajrang dal mobs later… cough, cough.. babu bajrangi testimony.. cough, cough…

  43. Yes, Kabir, good job, cause none of my links came from Center for Policy Research experts, the South Asia Analysis Group, or any number of respected policy institutes…”all just rediff”…that may work on one of your pak forums, but we actually try use fact over here instead of inventing “hindu-yankee-zionist” conspiracies…

    Dude, just cause you don’t agree with someone doesn’t mean they don’t know what they’re talking about. I know you think your beloved Pakistan is the realm of God and the land of the Pure, destined for great deeds in the name of genocide and religion, but just take a look at Washington Post or the NYT on any given day, and what I’m writing here they’re corroborating there. In fact, you haven’t even attempted to contradict anything I’ve said about Pakistan…either intellectual laziness or complete abdication of fact-based discussion…both very characteristic of the “International Migraine”–btw that phrase was invented by Madeleine Albright, not rediff.com

    But that’s ok, please continue to go into deep, deep denial…

  44. “hindu-yankee-zionist”

    niiiceee… i like the anti-pakistani insult… well done!

  45. pota struck down by the courts, of course –

    Causing you immense glee of course.

    babu bajrangi testimony.

    And I thought NaMo was your kala bandar. Babu might be guilty. That is not the issue we were discussing.

    Anyway, I gotta go now. Lock the doors when you sleep, evil NaMo might come and take you away to Gujarat.