Indian Elections: Can You Help Make Sense Of Them?

I realized five years ago, when the Congress Party came back into power after everyone had seemingly given them up for dead, that Indian politics is way too complicated to try and predict, especially from the outside.

Still, I wonder if readers have been coming across insightful articles or websites that explain what is happening in individual states or regions of the country, or analyze trends in a useful way. If so, could you put your recommendations in the comments below?

Here are two things I’ve read in the past day that I thought were interesting: the New York Times, on Narendra Modi, and Soutik Biswas, at the BBC, on why the 26/11 terrorist attack in Mumbai is not likely to be a national election issue.

This time around, it seems impossible to read too much into what is happening on any given day. Nor does it seems necessary to pay all that much attention to the to and fro between the Congress Leaders, the BJP leaders, and third front leaders. It doesn’t seem particularly consequential in terms of how people vote. As far as I can tell, there’s nothing remotely similar to the glut of daily tracking polls we had in the U.S. with the elections last year, nor are there websites like 538.com, which synthesized all the polling data coming in. (Are there such polls and websites? Have I simply been missing them?)

It does seem clear that the steady, incremental shift from national to regional politics is continuing in the current election. On the one hand, that is bad, because it means that whatever government comes to power at the center will be inherently weak and coalition-based. On the other hand, that weakness at the center can also be a good thing in terms of maintaining overall stability — not always easy in a country with 1 billion people. Even if a far-right or far-left party comes into power next month, they will not be able to do anything too drastic for fear of losing coalition support.

Second, it seems like “Hindutva” has seemingly lost some of its force as a national issue. The BJP and its allies might still prevail, but they’re playing the “nationalism” card more than the communal card.

Third, caste politics seems to be more prevalent than ever. I find that to be one of the most depressing and deadening things about Indian politics.

Fourth, Varun Gandhi is Ram, Shashi Tharoor is on bail, and Sanjay Dutt’s daughter in New York is pissed at him.

255 thoughts on “Indian Elections: Can You Help Make Sense Of Them?

  1. but I think given that the election deals with more pressing matters, like security,

    i think the only way to get security is to make sure the trains run on time with a clear proponent of the law like modi at the helm. i know modi is good because true patriots like arun shourie drool all over him.

  2. Quick! What’s a four letter word for a glib commentator who doesn’t quite know how to use facts or logic??? G…A…R…hmm, can’t quite remember the rest, so let’s ask Arundhati Roy, I’m sure she’ll give us some great “context”

  3. You mean Suzanne Arundhati Roy, the one who lobbies for terrorists and writes horrendously long articles defending their reasons to bomb Indian cities. Yeah I know her…

    After reading the thread, I agree most closely with your ideas Mr Wry. Good work and thanks for a great debate.

  4. My point to you is since you advocated a colonial language as a “neutral” option that is also globally practical, those same arguments hold for persian and chinese.

    Are we now debating in Persian or Chinese?. How are those choices practical?.

    You are talking about not discriminating rural Bihari or rural UP wallah. What about discriminating rural Tamilian or a rural Telugu?. As I said you are using emotional arguments to eliminate English in favor of Hindi. Whatever your claims are Hindi is as foreign as a language to major segments of Indians and suddenly they are not going to learn to fit your ideas of nationalism. It would be as futile as asking the rural UP wallahs and Biharis to learn a south indian language which they tried using the three language formula and failed miserably.

  5. The problem is, if you are an English-as-1st-language Indian, all of the above is equally distasteful.

    I’m Telugu-as-1st-language American and I don’t feel deeply troubled or insulted about the fact that my public life is all done in English. That’s part of living in the world with other people.

  6. I’m Telugu-as-1st-language American and I don’t feel deeply troubled or insulted about the fact that my public life is all done in English.

    You will be, if people use your Telugu-as-1st-language-ness to make you feel unAmerican. Language and other similar talking points are often gateways to monoculturalism. A much bigger issue that good people shouldn’t ignore is all I’m saying.

    …so let’s ask Arundhati Roy, I’m sure she’ll give us some great “context”

    Black people get Sharpton. We get The Queen of Hackistan.

  7. Third, caste politics seems to be more prevalent than ever. I find that to be one of the most depressing and deadening things about Indian politics.

    but why depressed old falooda? it’s the best way to gather votes by the bloc. time honored tactic and all that sort of thing.

    Fourth, Varun Gandhi is Ram,

    errgh. just when you thought he couldnt sink lower. plus he is butt ugly. looks like a gargoyle.

    Shashi Tharoor is on bail,

    i hope he loses. the great indian novel needs a sequel

    and Sanjay Dutt’s daughter in New York is pissed at him.

    great. more bolly trivia. this was almost as good as the headline that __ singh [i forget his first name btu the rich guy who heads a party] sent sushmita sen to pleasure some mid-level politician. it’s good to be in politics

  8. Quick! What’s a four letter word for a glib commentator who doesn’t quite know how to use facts or logic???

    huh? arundathi? who mentioned her? i am only going by the keen counsel of he whom you mention is a true genius arun shourie.

  9. i know modi is good because true patriots like arun shourie drool all over him.

    I know Modi is good because pseudo-seculars like Teesta Setalvad hate him. There- eent ka jawaab patthar 😉

  10. I know Modi is good because pseudo-seculars like Teesta Setalvad hate him.

    huh? who mentioned teesta? shourie was the one mentioned as a worthy and he tells me modi is the best.

  11. Sure, English is the coloniser’s language and they forcefully replaced Persian (another imperial language BTW) to enforce their own on Indians.

    I would disagree with the idea that English was imposed on Indians. The original plan of the British was to build a Sanskrit school in Calcutta and use Sanskrit as the basis of Indian education. Ram Mohun Roy in a letter to Lod eloquently opposed Sanskrit education and demanded English education. Roy felt “the Sangscrit system of education would be the best calculated to keep this country in darkness.”

  12. of course, calling teesta a pseudosec is also the hallmark of a true patriot.

  13. Fourth, Varun Gandhi is Ram, errgh. just when you thought he couldnt sink lower.

    a true son of his father he is.

  14. I would disagree with the idea that English was imposed on Indians. The original plan of the British was to build a Sanskrit school in Calcutta and use Sanskrit as the basis of Indian education. Ram Mohun Roy in a letter to Lod eloquently opposed Sanskrit education and demanded English education. Roy felt “the Sangscrit system of education would be the best calculated to keep this country in darkness.”

    yeah right. And British had the noble idea of civilizing Indians to come out of their barbarism of suttee and thuggee etc.. where the noble English man is helped by the water carrying Gunga din and Rajaram Mohan roy. We have seen that movie before. 🙂

  15. “yeah right. And British had the noble idea of civilizing Indians to come out of their barbarism of suttee and thuggee “

    One can look at historical facts or one can parrot Indian nationalist propaganda.

  16. Guys, just ignore garv. He/she/it is just a troll looking to get some kicks, which is why he/she/it keeps bringing up modi out of context. I don’t know if that dude/dudette is whoa! or some other misguided troll who loves to prevaricate in debate and get reactions, but by responding we just encourage him/her/it. As they say at the zoo, please don’t feed the animals…

    Desigyrl, thanks for the compliments. I tip my pagdi to you.

    Khoofi Re

    Shashi Tharoor is on bail, i hope he loses. the great indian novel needs a sequel

    . Hahaha. Nice

    Ponniyin,

    Here’s the bottomline: Anyone who is familiar with the anti-hindi agitation of the 60s knows that the dravidistan secessionists would have quite happily IMPOSED TAMIL on the states of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Kerala. I have pride in my mother tongue from which the majority of its vocabulary is derived from sanskirt, not tamil. Why would I want to sacrifice that identity? So I’m sorry, but the claims of “dravidians” (AIT has been debunked) uniting against linguistic imperialism rings kind of hollow to me when this is clearly just a case of “if I can’t impose my language on others, then no one can”. My arguments for hindi were functional, not emotional. As a south indian, i do not find the use of hindi to be discriminatory. If anything, the use of english doesn’t really advantage the rural tamil or telugu, but only the urban tamil and telugu due to their exposure under the Madras Presidency. So what you’re saying is let’s unfairly disadvantage all rural indians across the board rather than at least giving rural hindi speakers (who incidentally come from the poorest states in India) a fighting chance? Let’s ensure that the descendants of urban Tamilian and Telugu ICS officers continue to retain their advantages? There can be a transition period/lag time, so that no current elementary student, rural or urban, south or north, is unfairly disadvantaged by not being taught the future administrative language in school. This way, by the time they reach their IAS exams, everyone is on equal ground.

    I would much rather have some indian language rather than no indian language as the administrative one for the state. But if we want to continue the Indian attitude of “I would rather have a foreigner take over both our countries than have my fellow Indian unite us all” as we’ve seen over and over from Ambi and Porus onwards, that is your choice. I have made mine. Yoga Fire suggested sanskrit, which I like, but that’s another hornets nest. We wouldn’t want to be “communalist” after all. Hindi has the widest range, and no less an advocate than GANDHIJI. The famed nationalist of Tamilian Origin, Chakravarthi Rajagopalacari also argued for hindi, so obviously, not all tamils see things the way you do.

    I no longer think this debate is serving our “greater good” well. Please, let’s change the subject. Just to put something out there: Any good Lok Sabha prediction links, people?

    Mr. X,

    By your logic, english is also encouraging a desi monoculture. Even Amitabh has noted that point about vernaculars losing out to the urban english monoculture. So wouldn’t it make sense to at least salvage one indian language? Or must we all drown rather than have one of us rise up? Or is it just a case of Anglo-Indians wanting to keep a status quo that favors them, because language aside, they are overrepresented in parliament and given unfair advantages such as automatic 2 seat representation (if the President so desires)? The contributions of patriotic Anglo-Indians aside, if any single community deserves guaranteed representation it is the Parsi community, which pound for pound has given more to Modern India than any other community…I think this debate has run its course. Please, let’s move on.

  17. Roy’s letter to Lord Amherst dated December 11, 1823.

    To His Excellency the Right Honorable Lord Amherst, Governor-General in Council

    My Lord, Humbly reluctant as the natives of India are to obtrude upon the notice of government the sentiments they entertain on any public measure, there are circumstances when silence would be carrying this respectful feeling to culpable excess.The present rulers of India,coming from a distance of many thousand miles to govern a people whose language, literature, manners, customs, and ideas, are almost entirely new and strange to them,cannot easily become so intimately acquainted with their real circumstances as the natives of the country are themselves. We should therefore be guilty of a gross dereliction of duty to ourselves and afford our rulers just grounds of complaint at our apathy did we omit, on occasions of importance like the present, to supply them with such accurate information as might enable them to devise and adopt measures calculated to be beneficial to the country, and thus second by our local knowledge and experience their declared benevolent intentions for its improvement.The establishment of a new Sanskrit School in Calcutta evinces the laudable desire of government to improve the natives of India by education -a blessing for which they must ever be grateful, and every well-wisher of the human race must be desirous that the efforts made to promote it should be guided by the most enlightened principles, so that the stream of intelligence may flow in the most useful channels. When this seminary of learning was proposed, we understood that the government in England had ordered a considerable sum of money to be annually devoted to the instruction of its Indian subjects. We were filled with sanguine hopes that this sum would be laid out in employing European gentlemen of talent and education to instruct the natives of India in mathematics, natural philosophy, chemistry, anatomy, and other useful sciences, which the natives of Europe have carried to a degree of perfection that has raised them above the inhabitants of other parts of the world. While we looked forward with pleasing hope to the dawn of knowledge thus promised to the rising generation, our hearts were filled with mingled feelings of delight and gratitude, we already offered up thanks to Providence for inspiring the most generous and enlightened nations of the West with the glorious ambition of planting in Asia the arts and sciences of modern Europe.

    We find that the government are establishing a Sanskrit school under Hindu pandits’ to impart such knowledge as is already current in India. This seminary (similar in character to those’ which existed in Europe before the time of Lord Bacon can only be expected to load the minds of youth with grammatical niceties and meta physical distinctions of little or no practical use to the possessors or to society. The pupils will there acquire what wa known two thousand years ago with the addition of vain and empty subtleties since then produced by speculative men such as is already commonly taught in all parts of India. The Sanskrit language, so difficult that almost a lifetime is necessary for its acquisition, is well known to have been for ages a lamentable check to the diffusion of knowledge, and the learning concealed under this almost impervious veil is far from sufficient to reward the labor of acquiring it. But if it were thought necessary to perpetuate this language for the sake of the portion of valuable information it contains, this might be much more easily accomplished by other means than the establishment of a new Sanskrit College; for there have been always and are now numerous professors of Sanskrit in the different parts of the country engaged in teaching this language, as well as the other branches of literature which are to be the object of the new seminary. Therefore their more diligent cultivation, if desirable, would be effectually promoted, by holding out premiums and granting certain allowances to their most eminent professors, who have already undertaken on their own account toteach them, and would by such rewards be stimulated to still greater exertion. … Neither can much improvement arise from such speculations as the following which are the themes suggested by the Vedanta. In what manner is the soul absorbed in the Deity? What relation does it bear to the Divine Essence? Nor will youths be fitted to be better members of society by the Vedantic doctrines which teach them to believe that all visible things have no real existence, that as father, brother, etc., have no real entity, they consequently deserve no real affection, and therefore the sooner we escape from them and leave the world the better. … If it had been intended to keep the British nation in ignorance of real knowledge, the Baconian philosophy would not have been allowed to displace the system of the schoolmen which was the best calculated to perpetuate ignorance. In the same manner the Sanskrit system of education would be the best calculated to keep this country in darkness, if such had been the policy of the British legislature. But as the improvement of the native population is the object of thegovernment, it will consequently promote a more liberal and enlightened system of instruction, embracing mathematics, naturalphilosophy, chemistry, anatomy, with otheruseful sciences, which may be accomplished with the sums proposed by employing a few gentlemen of talent and learning educated inEurope and providing a college furnished withnecessary books, instruments, and other apparatus. In presenting this subject to your Lordship, Iconceive myself discharging a solemn duty which I owe to my countrymen, and also to that enlightened sovereign and legislature which have extended their benevolent care to this distant land, actuated by a desire to improve the inhabitants, and therefore humbly trust you will excuse the liberty I havetaken in thus expressing my sentiments to your Lordship. I have the honor, etc., Rammohun Roy

  18. Anyone who is familiar with the anti-hindi agitation of the 60s knows that the dravidistan secessionists would have quite happily IMPOSED TAMIL on the states of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Kerala.

    Satyajit Wry,

    I think you are creating a strawman and then taking him down. I’m not the one claiming that Tamil need to be imposed on other Dravidian states. I oppose anyone forcing a language on anyone else touting some nationalist nonsense.

    My arguments for hindi were functional, not emotional.

    Unfortunately I don’t see any thing other than emotional arguments for replacing English with Hindi.

    Hindi has the widest range, and no less an advocate than GANDHIJI. The famed nationalist of Tamilian Origin, Chakravarthi Rajagopalacari also argued for hindi, so obviously, not all tamils see things the way you do.

    Gandhi is a noble man and I respect him. He is the man instrumental in creating language based Congress committees in 1919-20 and supported linguistic re-org. I have no doubt that he would have supported the continuation of English given the way things played out in 1965. Read about the position of Chakravarthi rajagopalachari in 1965. You would be surprised. 🙂

  19. Tenali,

    Thanks for the letter from Rajaram Mohan roy. Do you have a link?. I’m surprised at the level of sucking up he did for his English masters. I expected a little but not to this level. 🙂

    Do you seriously think that the Brits obliged Rajaram Mohan roy and granted his wishes ?. I wonder why they did not do the same to other Anglophiles like Gandhi / Nehru et.al in the early 1900s..

  20. Ponniyin Selvan

    A google search will bring up many links. I believe the British were influenced by Ram Mohun Roy’s advise. I read somewhere that Macaulay’s decision to make English the language of Indian education was influenced by Roy’s ideas. The British did not listen to Gandhi and Nehru because they believed Anglicized Indians did not represent the Indian masses. There was also a radical change in British-Indian relations after the Mutiny.

  21. He/she/it is just a troll looking to get some kicks, which is why he/she/it keeps bringing up modi out of context.

    do you determine context? you mentioned shourie who has come out in full throated support of modi as pm. i think it is important to know that about this true patriot, in the light of elections, which you have told us is what is on topic.

  22. The British did not listen to Gandhi and Nehru because they believed Anglicized Indians did not represent the Indian masses. There was also a radical change in British-Indian relations after the Mutiny.

    Rajaram Mohanroy is as much an Anglicized Indian as Gandhi. So it doesn’t make sense that Brits obliged once Anglicized Indian and ignored other Anglicized Indians.

    The Brits justified their takeover from East India Company after 1857 in the name of the welfare of the Indian people. Before 1857 it was rule by the Company (with limited control by the crown) whose main aim was to make money and grab more land. It is naive to assume that the company officials are involved with the welfare of the people of India. That works for good propaganda though.

  23. “How, then, stands the case? We have to educate a people who cannot at present be educated by means of their mother-tongue. We must teach them some foreign language. The claims of our own language it is hardly necessary to recapitulate. It stands preeminent even among the languages of the west. It abounds with works of imagination not inferior to the noblest which Greece has bequeathed to us; with models of every species of eloquence; with historical compositions, which, considered merely as narratives, have seldom been surpassed, and which, considered as vehicles of ethical and political instruction, have never been equalled; with just and lively representations of human life and human nature; with the most profound speculations on metaphysics, morals, government, jurisprudence, and trade; with full and correct information respecting every experimental science which tends to preserve the health, to increase the comfort, or to expand the intellect of man. Whoever knows that language has ready access to all the vast intellectual wealth, which all the wisest nations of the earth have created and hoarded in the course of ninety generations. It may safely be said, that the literature now extant in that language is of far greater value than all the literature which three hundred years ago was extant in all the languages of the world together. Nor is this all. In India, English is the language spoken by the ruling class. It is spoken by the higher class of natives at the seats of Government. It is likely to become the language of commerce throughout the seas of the East. It is the language of two great European communities which are rising, the one in the south of Africa, the other in Australasia; communities which are every year becoming more important, and more closely connected with our Indian empire. Whether we look at the intrinsic value of our literature, or at the particular situation of this country, we shall see the strongest reason to think that, of all foreign tongues, the English tongue is that which would be the most useful to our native subjects.

    The question now before us is simply whether, when it is in our power to teach this language, we shall teach languages in which, by universal confession, there are no books on any subject which deserve to be compared to our own; whether, when we can teach European science, we shall teach systems which, by universal confession, whenever they differ from those of Europe, differ for the worse; and whether, when we can patronise sound Philosophy and true History, we shall countenance, at the public expense, medical doctrines, which would disgrace an English farrier [note: a horse shoer] -Astronomy, which would move laughter in girls at an English boarding school, History, abounding with kings thirty feet high, and reigns thirty thousand years long, and Geography, made up of seas of treacle and seas of butter.”

    …In one point I fully agree with the gentlemen to whose general views I am opposed. I feel with them, that it is impossible for us, with our limited means, to attempt to educate the body of the people. We must at present do our best to form a class who may be interpreters between us and the millions whom we govern; a class of persons, Indian in blood and colour, but English in taste, in opinions, in morals, and in intellect. To that class we may leave it to refine the vernacular dialects of the country, to enrich those dialects with terms of science borrowed from the Western nomenclature, and to render them by degrees fit vehicles for conveying knowledge to the great mass of the population.”

    From Thomas Babington Macaulay, “Minute of 2 February 1835 on Indian Education,” Macaulay, Prose and Poetry, selected by G. M. Young (Cambridge MA: Harvard University Press, 1957), pp-721-24,729.

    Good Job, Tenali. Macaulay would be proud. Who knows, had you been lucky enough to have been born back then, Her Majesty the Queen might have knighted you: Sir Tenali of Ghulamipalli…has a nice ring to it…

  24. the laudable desire of government to improve the natives of India
    We were filled with sanguine hopes that this sum would be laid out in employing European gentlemen of talent and education to instruct the natives of India in mathematics, natural philosophy, chemistry, anatomy, and other useful sciences, which the natives of Europe have carried to a degree of perfection that has raised them above the inhabitants of other parts of the world
    our hearts were filled with mingled feelings of delight and gratitude…for inspiring the most generous and enlightened nations of the West with the glorious ambition of planting in Asia the arts and sciences of modern Europe.
    legislature which have extended their benevolent care to this distant land, actuated by a desire to improve the inhabitants, and therefore humbly trust you will excuse the liberty I havetaken in thus expressing my sentiments to your Lordship

    Thank you Tenali for exposing Raja Rammohan. He did some good work, but truly a man beset with deep feelings of inferiority. God bless his soul.

  25. I don’t know if that dude/dudette is whoa! or some other misguided troll who loves to prevaricate in debate

    i am not whoa! but i would like you to point out my prevarications or admit that you are just indulging in ad hominem to suppress discussion of shourie’s full throated support of modi as pm – something that reasonable people would believe is important in an election discussion.

  26. but the claims of “dravidians” (AIT has been debunked)

    another bs conflation.

  27. Ponniyin,

    It is not a strawman since dravidistan secessionism was at the front and center of the anti-hindi agitation. It was an anti-brahminical, anti-hindu movement that on many occasions advocated and implemented the use of violence against innocents and that played into the hands of the British. So I’m sure you will pardon my non-tamil south indian self for not trusting the motives of that movement, which would have ostensibly pushed for Tamil at swordpoint on my language group had dravidistan come into existence. So that was the context in which hindi was being vilified. As a non-Tamil South Indian, I wholeheartedly agree with Gandhiji on this issue. As for Rajaji, if what you are saying is true, it wouldn’t surprise me:

    “Rajagopalachari’s rule is largely remembered however for compulsory introduction of Hindi in educational institutions, which made him highly unpopular.[13] This measure sparked off widespread anti-Hindi protests, which led to violence in some places. Over 1,200 men, women and children were jailed for participating in these protests.[14] Two protesters, Thalamuthu Nadar and Natarasan, were killed.[14] In 1940, Congress ministers resigned protesting the declaration of war on Germany without their consent, and the Governor took over the reins of the administration. The unpopular law was eventually repealed by the Governor of Madras on February 21, 1940.[14] Despite the numerous shortcomings, Madras under Rajagopalachari was still regarded as the best administered province in British India.[15]

    I’m sure favoring hindi would’ve cut into his TN base for his new Swatantra party…

    Again, my arguments have not been emotional as you saw upthread but functional: 680,000,000 people have hindi as their native language (including dialects). An overwhelming number. But according to you, a colonial language spoken by only a few million privileged Indians whose ancestors served that colonial administration, must trump all because Tamils are worried about the dilution of their culture, which incidentally, that colonial language is now doing due to globalization anyway. It is an argument which overwhelmingly favors urban over rural. Which argument is now emotional?

    I know this is an sensitive issue for many tamils who rightfully cherish their heritage which includes ancient Sangam era poetry and the Thirukurral (also celebrated by Gandhiji). Now you have made some arguments for english, which I respect, but with which I politely disagree. Now if it’s alright with you, I’m done with the discussion. If you want to tackle bigger and more important issues, I would be more than happy to collaborate with you as we’ve done in the past. See you on sepia. Adieu

  28. I’m done with the discussion. If you want to tackle bigger and more important issues, I would be more than happy to collaborate with you as we’ve done in the past.

    yes, let’s strategically align now, and later i can denounce you for your unpatriotic behavior 🙂

  29. Satyajit Wry:

    If you read the same link you quoted you’d find this.. 🙂

    Rajaji reversed his earlier position in support of Hindi and took a strongly anti-Hindi stand in support of the protests.[37] On January 17, 1965, he convened the Madras state Anti-Hindi conference in Tiruchirapalli.[38] He angrily declared that the Part XVII of the Constitution of India which declared that Hindi was the official language should “be heaved and thrown into the Arabian Sea.”[37]

    If Rajaji changed his position n 1960s for his career in Swatantra party can we also assume his initial position in the 1930s was for his career in the Congress party.

    You are creating strawmen arguments about Tamil imposition on the rest of South Indians. I would never support that either same as I would never support privileging Hindi over other languages.

    Anyways, I’m done with this too. This is not a big issue now and has been decided for good a long time back.

  30. Ponniyin, very possible indeed. Who knows why he decided to introduce Hindi to Madras during his tenure. I guess politics does indeed make for strange bedfellows. And regarding the imposition of Tamil on non-Tamil southerners, I know you don’t support it, which is why I respect you, but the main agitators against hindi (Periyar, DMK, et al) all did deep into the 50s and 60s, so my raising it is not a strawman. That fear of support for secession ultimately had an impact on the decision given the uncertain security situation post-1962. Either way, these are minor differences and I am glad we are in agreement about moving on. As always, it’s been a pleasure. later.

  31. but i would like you to point out my prevarications or admit that you are just indulging in ad hominem to suppress discussion of shourie’s full throated support of modi as pm – something that reasonable people would believe is important in an election discussion.

    your inability to point out a single prevarication of mine despite my explicitly asking you to do so clearly shows that you indulged in gratuitous slander so that your election related comments would not be subject to examination or scrutiny, and you could indulge in pushing your crypto sympathies.

  32. How are you going to throw out a red herring and an ad hominem attack in response to a post pointing out that all you’re doing is throwing out red herrings and ad hominem attacks? Ye Gods! I’ve seen more self-awareness from paramecia.

  33. and you could indulge in pushing your crypto sympathies.

    I also didn’t expect to find the Grand Inquisition here.

    But then again, I guess no-one ever does.

  34. How are you going to throw out a red herring and an ad hominem attack in response to a post pointing out that all you’re doing is throwing out red herrings and ad hominem attacks?

    huh? 🙂 i was accused of prevarication. apparently my statements about arun shourie and modi are too problematic to be actually addressed. but do go on in the echo chamber of mutual admiration.

    Ye Gods! I’ve seen more self-awareness from paramecia

    you recognize what you lack in spades, i see.

  35. Indian elections are a bit like the IPL sometimes, they are good paisa vasool. Of course they can be a deadly serious business in many parts of the country. Democracy in India is surreal – a lot of people do vote, which is in itself a miracle. A lot of people cannot simply because they are not on the list (in quite a few cases, party ‘workers’ ensure the vote is not wasted). Vote fraud has not been seriously curbed by EVMs, although the old days of large scale rigging are restricted to places. In many places, elections are conducted under the shadow of some sort of threat such as naxalites or one of the various groups in the north-east. Election officials, in many cases government officials and college/school teachers, bear the brunt. It sort of works…at least the show goes on.

  36. In response to some of Satyajity Wry’s comments #55

    1) Actually you provided stuff from publications which aren’t that respected or reliable imo. I see absolutely no evidence that “large parts of West Bengal or Assam are being claimed in the name of Islam” as you so fantastically claim – and yeah personal observation is important for me here since this is the part of India I come from and grew up here. I think I would have noticed some of this Islamiscisation you claim is happening. I didn’t say Islamism won’t be a problem but only that they won’t be the major problem or an insurmountable one. The history of the region bears me out on this, I think. Also calm down a little; you cycling out some assertions is not “quoting facts” as you would like us to believe.

    2) Regardless of what is actually happening with the Frontier Force, the fact remains that there is no evidence of mass desertions from the Pakistani army. This point should be acknowledged by those who wrongly tried to cite it in their arguement, instead of glossed over. I don’t “cite myself as an authority” I simply pointed out some facts here; also running around quoting “Indian security experts” and cherry-picking conservatively-inclined Western media sources, in no way makes your arguement objective or more authoritative imo.

    3) Re Nixon and Kissinger – I rank this pair of scum even lower than fanatical Pak nationalists and their Indian idiot counterparts. Given their delusional and murderous foreign policy in Latin America and SE Asia, I don’t see why their paranoia needs to be given any credence.

    4) Re China’s role, Manekshaw planned for the worst contingency as any good military strategist should do; this doesn’t mean that Chinese participation in the war was likely. I don’t think Manekshaw or any other Indian general at the time could have seriously entertained the idea that India could have fought on two fronts; the war would have been over since we would have had to declare a ceasefire very quickly.

    5) Also re the desire to break up Pakistan – all those links show is what the US and the UK feared; there is nothing there to indicate that this was actually a plan of the Cabinet or Indira Gandhi. I can only say that during the Cold War, the fears of the Western powers is not an accurate guide to what was actually occurring on the ground a lot of the time.

    6) Re Unmarried men – you arguement here is ridiculously weak – if one buys the bare branches theory; being able to vote is not going to calm down frustrated young men. And democratic instutions – are you having a laugh here; both the state and political institutions in India suffer a severe lack of credibility and respect and the situation is getting worse. One only needs to see how politicians and political parties are regarded in this sphere to see how things are going. This isn’t an arguement against democracy but the legitimacy it confers is weak and no replacement for other things. Both material and political benefits are no substitute for family life imo; especially in cultures like India and China where it is so central to an individuals’ place in society. To argue that either economic growth or democratic politics can subsume them at a national level, is incredibly stupid, imo.

    7) Kushwant Singh is your criteria for what the Sikh community think – PMSL, that Sanjay Gandhi loving clown. Oh dear, I will say no more on this.

    8) The point about Shourie’s electability and Chellaney’s for that matter is that we are talking elections (if you remember the origins of this thread) and that we are a democracy, where our leaders are meant to be elected. Unless you are advocating a system whereby we are run by so-called experts or that PMs and Ministers should be appointed by people who can’t win elections; electability is very important. OF course people who can’t can still become important figures in govt as Manmohan Singh’s case shows but this is only at the sufferance of those who really hold political power. Political power in a democracy like ours rests with those who can motivate people to vote for them and command public support across large sections of the electorate. Shourie et al can’t do this which is why he should stick to addressing his middle class urban fan clubs on the IIT circuit – they are about the only people that will.

    9) Re Internal division – so now you have moved from regarding internal division as the MAIN or SOLE factor to just saying it is one of the key factors. Wow, impressive shift there. I would say that the basis of EIC power lay in the fact that it had sea supremacy and that its sources or revenue and strategic base was outside India; which put it at a significant advantage compared to its competitors on the sub-continent. Why and how it achieved supremacy is a difficult question to answer, fobbing it off simplistically on a whinging nostalgia for Mughal power is simplistic. Both in terms of numbers and weaponry it was equable if not often inferior to indigenous Indian forces. But this is a separate and rather huge topic; the blunt matter is that nowhere else in Asia was any Asian power able to resist European colonialism, this indicates that India at the time was very much part of the norm rather than exceptional and that something else was at work here which made Asian regime svulnerable to external predation. Political disunity was a factor but not the only one or the determing one; since determined and unified regimes elsewhere also caved in. The only partial exception was Afghanistan and that is a special case.

    10) Hindi will be problematic to impose mainly because it won’t be liked by many non-Hindi speakers; this is a fact. I can tell you this because half my family is non-Hindi speaking (Bengali) and neither they or their peers will accept Hindi. It is of no problem to me, since Hindi is the only Indian language I can speak; but simplistically trying to impose it never worked in the past and the central govt had to back down. It has no roots in the South at all. English is an alternative mainly because it doesn’t have the same implications (apart from those suffering from post-colonial trauma but this is only the conservatively inclined sections of the middle class a small group proportionately) in fact the one thing that surprised me is that from my fieldwork, even in very rural areas there is a determination by illiterate parents to make sure their children have some access to English language education; since English is seen as the language of power and access to social mobility. This will not change.

    11) I never said there wasn’t “an Indian identity” please point out where I supposedly made this claim. Simply rubbish.

    Re development etc. Where do you get that rubbish from? Mass literacy is absolutely essential as is providing an economic strategy that gives viable employment opportunities to the bulk of the population. I have said so as much on several threads here – most recently on the one about Nilekani’s appearance on the Jon Stewart show. You coming on and making up bullshit because it chimes in with whatever prejudices you have is absolutely abhorrent here and makes it difficult to take you seriously as an interlocutor on any discussion

  37. Well, I expected a half-way decent discussion on Indian elections here on Sepia.Even if we end up repeating the arguments and defend /attack specific individuals/parties etc, this forum generally throws up some good dialogue and in the end, all of us get better at articulating our stances.

    Hmm..but what I see is that a large number of comments are on the language issue (which is no longer an issue in India, IMO).

    Anyway, I hope we have exhausted the talking points on language by now.

    Here are some links:

    Promise of Reason is a good source for ground-level reports from various states, using mostly UGC (user generated content).

    If you want to read right wing discussions, and also get a good sense of what the issues being discussed in each State/Phase, along with pre and post-poll analysis, Offstumped has open threads on WordPress.

    I am not giving Congress leaning web sites because you just have to check the web sites of english language TV networks such as CNN-IBN and NDTV.But they are running micro-sites on elections and are able to cover a lot of the country.

    Interestingly, the analysts started by giving UPA a big lead, slowly brought up NDA’s numbers after each Phase and now the media is actually admitting that it is going to be a photo finish.Basically, they seem to be as clueless as any one else, but being paid for stating the obvious.

    Rediff as always, is doing a better job of aggregation than original content.They have a useful micro-site on Indian elections too.

    I would like to end with two more links.One on NaMo and the other on Prince Rahul.

    The NaMo interview is brief but opens a window into the man’s desi idiom, his cynicism (justified to a large extent, IMO) on Indian media, and his realism regarding developmental issues.He may or may not be what India needs (that depends on where each we are on the ideology spectrum), but irrespective of the results of this election, NaMo will be a force to reckon with in Indian politics for the next decade or two.

    Well, what can one say about Rahul Gandhi that is new?It is a huge relief for many people (on all sides of the political theatre) that Rahul has finally been pushed to the centre stage in Congress.As Sheela Bhatt aptly puts it: “Congress is Rahul, only Rahul.”The fascinating thing about the first family is that they won’t get defeated even when Congress loses.

  38. And now for some personal observations on the election scene:

    1.The debate should have been about the UPA’s rule/misrule for the past 5 years.Instead, the english language media successfully brought in the issues of Kandahar hostage crisis, Gujarat 2002 (this has backfired because of the adverse comments of SIT on Teesta Setalvad and sundry NGOs, plus the order for probe on NaMo’s involvement), Swiss black money and so on.

    2.If we watch only the English TV channels (which many Anand Giridhar Das types seem to be doing), it will look like this is an election without issues, or just local issues.But Indian voters are a mature lot (collectively speaking) and most people I have spoken to have confirmed that they are voting differently compared to the local/assembly elections.

    3.Whoever forms the next Govt, they will need support from two of three women (Amma, Didi, and Behenji).

    4.This election is witnessing a change in the attitudes/voting motives of the Muslim voters across the country.Finally, good number of Muslims seem to realize that they need to vote based on their economic interests and not be influenced by religion/caste cards.It will take 1 more general election for this to have a visible impact on the results, but it is a positive step.

    Sample this statement from an anonymous Muslim commentor on one of the forums: We have been told to vote for Congress because only Congress is pro-Muslim, and they will protect us.We have been voting for Congress for the past 14 elections, and in places like UP/Bihar for SP and RJD.We have also been told that BJP is anti-Muslim, and we must vote to defeat the BJP candidates.But, in all these years, our financial situation has not changed; we see hi-tech cities being built but our slums remain;we still don’t have proper sanitation or hospitals in our ghettos.If Congress is pro-Muslim, why have they ensured that we remain poor and unable to come out of poverty and ignorance?

    4.Inspite of all these indicators, it is highly unlikely that India will give a resounding mandate for the BJP/NDA.This is not because people are averse to BJP’s Hindutva ideology (or whatever remains of it).People also recognize that NDA as a political formation has a better record on development than UPA.Congress, it seems, is better at managing a ‘confederation of narrow interests’ than the BJP, as they (Congress) are not encumbered by any ideology (positive or negative).We are now in the middle of elections, and already the talk is about post-poll alliances.The aim of both Congress and Left is to ensure a non-BJP govt at the centre.And I think they are likely to succeed again this time.I voted for BJP and I hope I am proved wrong.

  39. The NaMo interview is brief but opens a window into the man’s desi idiom, his cynicism (justified to a large extent, IMO) on Indian media, and his realism regarding developmental issues.He may or may not be what India needs (that depends on where each we are on the ideology spectrum), but irrespective of the results of this election, NaMo will be a force to reckon with in Indian politics for the next decade or two.

    Isn’t this a broader phenomenon of regional leaders becoming more important? You could say the same things about a leader like Mayawati, except perhaps on the developmental front. The problem for these regional leaders, imo, is that their national appeal is limited due to their vernacular idiom which makes it difficult for them to communicate with the rural mass base which is their source of strength in their own regions. Leaders like Mayawati can try to use caste and Modi Hindua nationalism to bridge this divide but I think that this will have limited scucess outside areas where they are already popular.

    Well, what can one say about Rahul Gandhi that is new?It is a huge relief for many people (on all sides of the political theatre) that Rahul has finally been pushed to the centre stage in Congress.

    Is this really a source of relief? Not a positive development imo, for a number of reasons. If Congress wants to be taken seriously as a party it needs to develop a programme and identity that isn’t based on the Family. Personally speaking I think the Family is well past its sell by date and is just heading a patronage machine now (has been for sometime really). Sooner both these institutions bite the dust the better I feel for Indian politics.

  40. Conrad,

    Firstly, let me tell you I liked some of your posts (not all) on Nitin Pai’s blog some time back 🙂

    1.I don’t think NaMo or Mayawati can be called regional leaders any longer.Both of them manage to get huge crowds in most parts of the country.I attended their meetings in South India over the last year, and they seemed to be able to connect with the audience. And then we have the vernacular TV, that takes them, translates their views into local language, and conducts debates.If this were a triangular presidential race, it would have NaMo/Rahul/Mayawati as the contestants.The importance for other regional leaders is purely based on the no.of LS seats they have and how much they are willing to sell their support for.The BSP especially has a nationwide network now and can get a few thousand votes in most LS seats.

    2.Well, regarding Rahul, I meant relief in the sense that while Congressis are happy about their Prince claiming ‘the family silver’, the BJP-walas are happy that they have someone to fight against(Manmohan has refused to be drawn into any discussion on his Govt’s performance and BJP needs an adversary !), the media is happy because Rahul is now accessible (Sonia never was), and all non-Congress people are happy that they can use the dynastic politics card against UPA now.

    I personally think Rahul is a dud who just looks good, and but for his surname, would have found it difficult to even become a ward-level leader of any political party, leave alone the heir apparent of India’s oldest party and a definite future PM.

  41. And since you are from West Bengal, you may find this news item interesting.Will appreciate your thoughts.

    Also, this analysis is from a web site called politicsparty.com. They have already declared the results and say that it is going to be either LKA or AK Antony as the next PM, or fresh elections.I don’t know how this site gets its info, but I am surprised by their predictions.

  42. Kumar –

    Thanks for the kind comments, it has been some time since I have read Nitin’s blog, as the elections dominate most of time here now rather than FP issues. I am surprised that you liked even some of the posts since most of mine were quite critical of the BJP and its approach to FP in practise; but glad you did at least like something!

    1 – Interesting, I confess I just don’t know enough about South India to say much because I am completely handicapped by the language factor. Good to see we have moved on from the days when Chidambaram would have to stand next to Indira Gandhi at the hustings and translate word for word what she was saying to her Tamil audience while she would anxiously look at their reactions to see whether she had said someting ‘cute’ or not! I think from what I know of northern India, this will be much more of a problem. Modi’s developmentalism, for example won’t play very well in a state like UP imo and Mayawati’s caste idiom can’t solidfy Dalits as a bloc in neighbouring states like Bihar.

    2 – I had the chance to interview several state level Congress leaders in UP and from what they said off the record, your assessment of Rahul Gandhi is shared by them. Of course, he doesn’t really have a message that can appeal in the hurly-burly of UP politics; in the 2006 state elections his blathering about how his family divided Pakistan in 1971 was just met with amusement as most people had other more pressing concerns.

    3 – Re Bengali politics – I should clarify that only half my family is Bengali and I have limited facility with the language; overall I have more knowledge and spent more time in the Hindi belt where the other resides and WB politics is very much a one-horse show with the CPM running things I don’t think that will change. Kolkata is the only area where easy in-roads can be made because the urban constituencies, sections of the middle-class and the Hindi working class migrants have traditionally been wary of the CPM. Mamata has a good base and I think any realistic chance the BJP has will mean a tie-up with her really; I haven’t followed things on the ground but they might stand a chance in one of the north Kolkata constituencies if they can exploit some of the north-south tensions and the class divide. It does seem odd that the Left here has such an overwhelmingly bourgeois bhadralok face in terms of the senior leaders and CMs which really just reinforces existing social structures without challenging them. The problem is that the rural base of the CPM is its real strength so the few urban seats in the only metro or the Gorkha belt that other parties can pick up are side-shows. If the recent imbroglio over Nandigram etc. Has dented the rural support base amongst the peasantry then the Left might face a problem otherwise it will romp home as usual. With the rapid degeneration of its rule and the thuggishness of its party cadre at the grassroots level; it would be good if it suffered and spent some time in the opposition; even if the alternative means the ascendancy of Mamata and the BJP in the state.

    The partypolitics.com site seem a little crazy with many of their predictions and analysis, almost seems like a parody. I have no idea where they get their info from.

  43. Modi’s developmentalism, for example won’t play very well in a state like UP

    Then people in U.P. deserve their squalor. Incidentally, Modi speaks fluent Hindi, so I don’t think he’ll have a problem reaching out to the Hindi belt, at least linguistically (his political message may not resonate, as you say).

  44. Good to see we have moved on from the days when Chidambaram would have to stand next to Indira Gandhi at the hustings and translate word for word what she was saying to her Tamil audience while she would anxiously look at their reactions to see whether she had said someting ‘cute’ or not!

    I don’t think so. Even now people translate whatever the non-Tamil leader says in English to Tamil. I watched the election kick-off of the ADMK alliance and they followed the same for Prakash Karat. Today it’s going to be Sonia’s turn in Chennai and I guess you will see the same translation (hope there are no untoward incidents. various Tamil groups are angry at Congress on the Srilankan Tamil issue and are planning to show black flags to Sonia).

  45. And that is for English speeches, I doubt if you can find any politician who can translate Hindi speeches in Tamilnadu because they won’t know the difference between rat or a cat in Hindi. It is interesting. I need to check the reports on Mayawati’s speeches in Tamilnadu. She usually goes for HIndi speeches.

  46. Then people in U.P. deserve their squalor. Incidentally, Modi speaks fluent Hindi, so I don’t think he’ll have a problem reaching out to the Hindi belt, at least linguistically (his political message may not resonate, as you say).

    I am sorry but What? why should such a large chunk of the population be written off. That is an amazing thing to say.

    The problem with Modi’s developmentalism is that it will appeal little in a state like UP whose main problems are agrarian; the mode of develppment followed by Modi hsn’t really delivered much by way of human or social development above the norm – it hasn’t be bad on this front just not been that good and this is the kind of development that UP badly needs.

    It isn’t just about speaking Hindi either, you have to speak int he regional idiom if you want to come from outside the state and make inroads. Even Mayawati’s Hindi which is very much Western UP grates on the ears of those in Poorvanchal, where the language is softer, less harsh and not as crude or insulting. But they vote according to their caste equations, so language matters less for them. For someone like Modi it will matter more since he is an outside and where the BJP in the state had become so heavily idenfitied with upper caste interests rather than a Hindutva ideology.

    Ponniyin Selvan

    Huh, that is interesting; I simply don’t know enough about the South to say much. The only time I ever saw an election rally there was in Tamilnad in 2004 when it was Geroge Fernandes, of all people, who had flown down to adress the rally of one of the smaller Tamil parties – I think it was the PMK but can’t remember. Very weird occasion but Georgy had a Tamil script which he read from that seemed to keep most of the listeners happy. The party in question was actually running against the NDA combine, so what the hell Georgey was doing down there I have no idea. Must have been the early signs of senility.

  47. The only time I ever saw an election rally there was in Tamilnad in 2004 when it was Geroge Fernandes, of all people, who had flown down to adress the rally of one of the smaller Tamil parties – I think it was the PMK but can’t remember. Very weird occasion but Georgy had a Tamil script which he read from that seemed to keep most of the listeners happy.

    I think George Fernandes knows Tamil along with many other languages. He is the trouble shooter and convenor of the NDA. And looks like Sonia’s meetings in Tamilnadu are cancelled. sensible thing to do. Karunanidhi is in the hospital and Sonia is afraid to come. things are not looking good for the Congress-DMK front in TN.

  48. Conrad at #138 commented:

    there is a determination by illiterate parents to make sure their children have some access to English language education; since English is seen as the language of power and access to social mobility.

    Yes, I can vouch for that in South India at least. I know someone who runs a free school for poor kids in Tamilnadu and the parents all want their little “white tigers” to learn English–the schools medium of instruction. I know someone else in Hyderabad and got the same feedback.

    I’m just back from India and have only caught the tail end of this discussion on language/national identity. What I noticed in rural Tamilnadu this time was that many people both knew and were interested in conversing in Hindi. I look North Indian so people–shop keepers, drivers– usually spoke to me in Hindi. Of course this driver class is comprised of young men who want to get ahead and pragmatism is part of it. I don’t think this will make Ponniyin happy.