Slumdog is no underdog

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Oscar season is upon us once again, and with it the opportunity to make some money by betting on the home team. Gambling on the Oscars is as venerable tradition as gambling on Diwali, making this the third biggest betting day of the year.

The sole uncontroversial topic about Slumdog is that it’s the odds on favorite tonight for both best picture and best director. The only surer bet out there is Heath Ledger for best supporting actor (you have to put down $25 to see even $1 of return) and he’s dead!

Furthermore, as we get close and closer to Oscar time, the odds keep improving in these two categories. Right now, Paddypower is giving 1-14 odds for best picture (bet $14, make $1 profit if Slumdog wins) and Danny Boyle 1-10 odds for best director (bet $10, make $1 profit if Boyle wins).

Boylesports is offering better odds for bestpicture and worse odds for best director, but in both cases, the certainty of a Slumdog win is higher today than it was just a few days ago.

Even at these odds, Slumdog is still a good investment. King of Elections Quantgeekery Nate Silver says that Slumdog has a 99% chance of getting best picture and a 99.7% chance of getting best director, estimates based on how well previous awards (which Slumdog has swept) predict the Oscars.

The chance to win big might also stem the anti-Slumdog tide of public opinion in India. Right now there is already over Rs. 2 billion ($41 million) staked on the film, so a lot of Indians will be rooting for the same film that they objected to.

Of course, the categories that matter the most to your average Indian aren’t the two I’ve discussed, but the musical ones: Rehman for best score and Jai Ho for best song, since these would be seen as a vindication of India rather than criticism of it (as the movie is perceived). I can’t find odds in these categories though, they’re too minor to be posted on the internet.

Normally, I would have said that a movie about India without a white protagonist in it would be (whole wheat) toast. But given how far this movie has advanced, I firmly believe that this will be SDM FTW. There has been a major media push, with Patel, Pinto and Kapoor ubiquitous on major media outlets.

In addition, the movie is timed brilliantly. A film about true love triumphing over poverty, adversity and evil is just the sort of film that the academy needs during this recession. Plus, at a time when we’re hearing the word “trillions” bandied about, a film about millions is … quaint and charming.

Lastly, the film has a secret weapon in the form of Rubina Ali and Azharuddin Mohammed Ismail, two of the lovable moppets who played Latika and Salim at the start of the movie, and who do live in the Bandra slums:

Ten-year-old Azharuddin’s mother says they have been homeless for a while: “We have been squatting on this government park since the time our hutments were demolished over a year ago and despite showing the right documents to the authorities we have not been allotted our room [a one-room tiny flat].” [link]

Director Boyle has promised to do the right thing and take responsibility for funding the whole of his young stars’ education, a fact that I’m certain the publicists have made sure the academy voters understand.

17 thoughts on “Slumdog is no underdog”

  1. You miss the obvious reason for the media “push” – with 20th century fox and sony investing in hindi movies now and releasing even rubbish movies like ‘Chandni Chowk to China’ in mainstream theaters like AMC, they need more than nostalgic Indians to get the box office ringing and get their investment back. What better way than make inroads into the American mindset by making it look like Indian movies are not just videos you watch you watch in indian eating joints but are oscar-worthy cool. one example is new york times movie critic reviewing ‘Delhi 6’ – I mean, seriously?

  2. “Reader”, “Curious case of Benjamin Button” may give some good competition to the Slumdog Mill.

  4. 3 · tara said

    why is dev much darker here than he actually is in real life?

    The answer to such questions is always… racism.

  5. 3 · tara said

    why is dev much darker here than he actually is in real life?

    I can’t believe we’re in 2009 with those kinds of comments. Really now, what kind of value are you contributing to the discussion with a comment like that?

  6. While the movie slumdog millionaire is okay, I fail to understand the hype – especially in India, where they feel an “Indian film” is going to win at the Oscars. Well for a start there have been several better authentic Indian films of late (such as Taare Zameen Par). However, what really bugs me is that while the judges at the Oscars are prepared to hand out awards to non-Indian directors making films about India (such as Attenborough, Boyle) they still retain a prejudice against Indian/third world directors making films about the west. Why else would the vastly superior ‘Elizabeth’, made by Shekhar Gupta, have lost out to the pretty mediocre ‘Shakespeare in Love’? Even the British recognized Elizabeth as a classic when it won the top awards at the British film awards.

    This is not to say that slumdog should not win tonight. But there is a huge assymetry/double standard here that needs to be corrected.

    Cheers

    Kishore Sharma

  7. Unlike most commenters on SM I grew up in a slum (Madras not Bombay) and have no desire to revisit painful memories. Life in the slums is never easy. The anger may be due to the film maker being british / Hollywood. Hardly anyone mistakes Bollywood for reality – it is escapist and hence the great success of masala Bollywood movies in the hinterland. SDM has held itself out to be more reality than fantasy warranting a viscereal reaction. I for one will not be paying money to watch it. Seriously, the film maker could not make a movie about paedophiles in British society ? I have less respect for a whole lot of desi stars who participated. Uncle toms abound in every culture I suppose. Bollywood does not make films about americans for a very good reason. It would be too easy to make a total mess. eg if BharathiRaja tried to explore the angst of inter racial teenage dating in the USA or if Adoor Gopalakrishnan tried to portray black travails in inner city Detroit. what are the chances that it would turn out well? I have told off a few people in Melbourne who kept raving about SDM.

  8. 7 · melbourne desi said

    DM has held itself out to be more reality than fantasy warranting a viscereal reaction.

    i think you are being unfair. i don’t think anybody but the clueless (of whom there are many) will think of it as some visceral or realistic portrayal of life in india. it seemed to me from the movie that danny boyle was looking to make an escapist entertainer, and it succeeded at that level. i think the movie is getting praise that far exceeds its cinematic merits – significantly for the reason you mention above (i can’t really say since i haven’t seen all the competitors (the reader looks like oscar bait tripe, but milk is the movie that seems like is getting robbed bigtime this year), but i think it is unfair to hold the moviemakers responsible for that.

  10. it seemed to me from the movie that danny boyle was looking to make an escapist entertainer,

    Ok. If you were to rate a bollywood escapist movie as a 10 what would you give SDM.

    Actually the director made a film about drug users in his society.

    I hope he did a good job and I suggest that he should stick to a society that he really knows and understands. Satyajit Ray was also criticised for making poverty porn but then he was desi and hence acceptable to an extent. Incidentally none of his movies won a best film award in India nor were they really successfull. Seriously, why pay good money to watch pain that can experience in real life. Much better to watch an action hero beat up the local goonda – something you wish you could do in real life but cant.

  11. Melbourne Desi —

    It’s interesting to hear your take on the movie, but you might change your mind if you saw it. It’s a fairly positive upbeat movie about how a young man, through his pluck, street smarts and virtue, manages to rise above all of the challenges thrown at him. Life in the slums is shown to be a varied experience, not great, but not horrible. Lastly, the movie is based on a novel which was written by an Indian (a diplomat no less) and had an Indian assistant director.

    In short, while I respect your reservations, I’m not sure whether they connect well with the movie I saw and wonder if you’d feel the same way after you saw the film.

    I was lucky in that I saw the movie very early, before the hype started, so I had no expectations about it. I did see it with my cousin from Bombay, and she did love it.

  12. this piece, by kenneth turan, sums up my feelings for ‘slumdog millionaire’ (and movies like ‘satya’ or ‘parinda’):

    Though its appearance was inevitable, I’ve been astonished at some of the anti-“Slumdog” backlash, by observers who seem to regret that the film isn’t a somber position paper from Human Rights Watch. Demanding that poor people be miserable and rent their garments on screen is as patronizing an attitude in its own way as Samuel Goldwyn’s insistence that the sets for his 1937 film “Dead End” be free of trash. “There won’t be any dirty slums,” biographer Scott Berg reports the mogul declared. “Not in my picture!” Given that it’s basically a delirious fantasy, what’s frankly surprising about “Slumdog Millionaire” is how much realism there is in it, not how little. It’s an old-fashioned movie, for heaven’s sake, a hugely accomplished piece of entertainment that delights audiences across the widest possible spectrum, which is exactly what traditional Hollywood so often lusts for and fails to achieve. If academy members don’t recognize and reward that kind of success, there are going to be a lot fewer of them to enjoy in the future

    .

    my mum, who dislikes, ‘sad’ ‘realistic’ movies and is a big fan of escapism at the movies loved ‘slumdog’ (she liked it far more than i did) and she caught on the technical merits of the movie even though she isn’t much of a movie buff. first, she liked that the flashbacks/forwards were executed really well, and second, she appreciated that the movie didn’t contain ‘extra’ elements or sub-plots that would clutter the plot. third, she felt that the movie did not try to encompass all the poverty porn cliches, and focused appropriately on the problems of the characters themselves.

    i think boyle deserves credit for adapting bolly-sensibilities for a global audience (i think the influence of desi cinema on sm is palpable). and for working with both amateur and accomplished cast members to deliver a tightly edited mass-appeal product.

    as far as ‘milk’ goes; i don’t doubt it is a great movie. but let’s nt kid ourselves, it is also standard fare in the conventional oscar-bait menu: inspiring biopic carried by a superb performer.

  13. Slumdog Actually Over-represents India’s Image No one likes a mirror, especially when our self-image is based our own socioeconomic circle. There are two Indias – the tiny slice of ‘India shining’ version that Bollywood, material gains and business success reinforces – and there is the vast majority of India lives worse than sub-Saharan Africa (you heard that right – I was shocked too). 86% of Indians in 2008 lived on less than about $0.63/day (Rs 30 in real money and about $2.50 if adjusted for PPP that factors in cheaper cost of living). Sub-Saharan Africa is better, at 80%. A full third of the world’s poor are in India. Check out the Wikipedia article on reality. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_India

  14. 10 · melbourne desi said

    it seemed to me from the movie that danny boyle was looking to make an escapist entertainer,
    Ok. If you were to rate a bollywood escapist movie as a 10 what would you give SDM.
    Actually the director made a film about drug users in his society.
    I hope he did a good job and I suggest that he should stick to a society that he really knows and understands. Satyajit Ray was also criticised for making poverty porn but then he was desi and hence acceptable to an extent. Incidentally none of his movies won a best film award in India nor were they really successfull. Seriously, why pay good money to watch pain that can experience in real life. Much better to watch an action hero beat up the local goonda – something you wish you could do in real life but cant.

    I love how Melbourne Desi wants someone to “stick to his own society” while ignoring the globalized notions of his own username.

    I am a fan of cross-cultural art and people of different parts of the world working together to tell a story that goes beyond borders and stikes a chord with all people.

  15. 7 · melbourne desi said

    f Adoor Gopalakrishnan tried to portray black travails in inner city Detroit. what are the chances that it would turn out well?

    Not well. He would take two hours just on a leisurely rumination of the cab ride from the house to Trivandrum airport 🙂 With a 5 minute shot of the cab wheels slowly turning.

  16. Satyajit Ray was also criticised for making poverty porn but then he was desi and hence acceptable to an extent. Incidentally none of his movies won a best film award in India nor were they really successfull

    32 total national film awards, with six best film awards. [link] Most of his films broke even, with occasional record-breaking blockbusters such as Goopi Gayen Bagha Bayen.