Where’s Osama?

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Academics love nothing more than a bit of intellectual arbitrage. Take a theory developed for one purpose, apply it to a different subject, and voila – twice the intellectual bang for your buck! And since in this case the topic is that of Osama bin Laden’s location, and bin Laden is still at liberty 7.5 years after 9/11, why not take a stab at the problem?

In this case, Thomas W. Gillespie and John A. Agnew, two professors of Geography at UCLA used techniques developed to track endangered species, and information on “bin Laden’s last known location, cultural background, security needs, declining health, limited mobility and height” to predict that there is a “90 percent chance that bin Laden is in Kurram province in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas, most likely in the town of Parachinar which gave shelter to a larger number of Mujahedin during the 1980s.” [link]

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p>The paper comes with some pretty pictures (like those above) and even goes so far as to identify three buildings where Osama might be located.

Of course, we know that if Osama was in any of those three buildings he would have moved (but maybe he knew that’s what you would think so he stayed! but maybe he thought you thought that … ) so this is more of a demonstration of technique than anything else. The authors are trying to say that they’ve got some useful tools, so if the CIA has some better information, they’re welcome to use this technique to generate their own maps.

The more interesting question is whether you think that the paper’s key assumptions hold:

Distance-decay theory would predict that he is closest to the point where he was last reported and, by extension, within a region that has a similar physical environment and cultural composition (that is, similar religious and political beliefs). For instance, the further he moves from his last reported location into the more secular parts of Pakistan or into India, the greater the probability that he will find himself in different cultural surroundings, thereby increasing the probability of his being captured or eliminated. Island biogeographic theory predicts that bin Laden is in a larger town rather than a smaller and more isolated town where extinction rate would be higher. [link]

Personally, I don’t see why he would want to restrict himself to nearby locations and in particular why he would want to stay in areas similar to the ones where he had stayed previously. If he’s smart, he’ll randomize all the factors he has control over, rather than staying in his comfort zone. It would be interesting to see the results of applying this theory retrospectively to see whether it properly postdicts the locations where other fugitives were found, based on the information available before hand. Only then can we see if the assumptions are reasonable, or for the birds.

10 thoughts on “Where’s Osama?”

  4. From http://www.juancole.com

    pdf] Gillespie et al. Finding Osama Bin Laden : An application of biogeographic theories and satellite imagery. MIT International Review. Feb 17, 2009.

    Dear Editors and founders of the MIT International Review:

    Professors Gillespie et al. while writing in MIT International Review have not only identified Parachinar, the town where Osama Bin Laden may have been hiding, but they have also pinpointed the three buildings that they think are likely to be Bin Laden’s hideout. Since I am from the Northwest Frontier Province, I find it a little odd that Osama may be hiding in the only Shiite majority town in the entire tribal region of Pakistan.

    The geography professors at UCLA may have used spatial analysis to determine the probable hideout of Osama; they certainly overlooked history and anthropology, which would have explained the gory sectarian rivalries between the Shiites of Parachinar and the Sunni supporters of Osama bin Laden. This is yet another example of technical analysis devoid of any understanding of the local socio-cultural and political contexts.

    Parachinar is a small town of approximately 20,000 individuals, who are almost exclusively Shiites and belong to Turi and Bangash tribes. The Sunni tribesmen from North Waziristan agency along with other militants from Arab countries and the Caucasus have been attacking the Shiites over the past two years, which has resulted in the death of hundreds of Shiites. In addition, since the Sunni tribesmen control the ground access to Parachinar from Peshawar, the supply of food, medicines, and other necessities to Parachinar have been interrupted for months, forcing the doctors to operate without anesthesia. The power and water supply, which have been restored only recently, also remained suspended.

    I find it hard to believe that after having hundreds, if not thousands, of Shiites murdered by the followers of Osama bin Laden, the Shiites of Parachinar would like to aid and abet Osama bin Laden.

  5. PAFD,

    interesting comment. I wonder how many of the drone missile attacks in Pak. are driven by internal rivalries in pakistan. US has to rely on local intelligence and these folks could just get rid of their local rivals by painting them as Al-qaeda. It is sad.

  6. What if Osama has been dead for, say, 2 years now? Gosh, wouldn’t they look like idiots!

    Another example of researchers in science and biology tapping into terrorism/bioterrorism/WMD funds to creatively survive after 9/11.

  10. Muntasir —

    Tell him he’s famous now 😉 And ask him to apply the technique to fugitives who were later found, to calibrate the technique!

    Limeduck —

    The problem is that some people have an incentive to protect him, so it’s not clear that would work.