There are currently as many elected African American governors as Indian American governors: one. For those of you that stopped reading Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com the day after the election, you are missing out. Today he had a wonderfully geeky post about why there are so few African American Senators (none actually unless you count Burris) and Governors. His analysis also offers some insight that might be of interest to the South Asian American community:
When the House of Representatives convenes tomorrow, it will contain 39 African-American members, not including non-voting delegates in places like the Virgin Islands and the District of Columbia. This number, representing about 9 percent of the Congress, falls somewhat short of the fraction of African-Americans in the population as a whole — a truly representative House would have about 55 black members — but perhaps not dramatically so. The situation at first glance would appear to be much better than it was prior to 1990, when there were generally only about 20 black members in the House at any given time.
The districts these 39 Congressmen serve, however, are not very representative at all. All 39 contain a higher percentage of African-Americans than the population as a whole, ranging from Keith Ellison’s district in Minneapolis, which is just barely more black than the national average, to Jesse Jackson Jr.’s on the South Side of Chicago, which is 68 percent African-American. About 64 percent of the members — 25 of 39 — come from districts that contain an outright black majority. The districts are also much more Democratic than the country as a whole, with an average PVI of D +25; only Sanford Bishop’s district in Georgia, which has a PVI of D+2, is anywhere close to the national average. [Link]
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So here it is in a nutshell. Assuming that experienced African American representatives (a reasonable number of which there are) would make suitable candidates to run for the U.S. Senate, why aren’t there more black Senators or Governors? The answer is that because the base of these potential candidates is largely African American, many of them never develop messages targeted to an audience any wider than this base. Doing so might cause them to lose some “cred” with that base. Thus, forced to compete statewide with this self-inflicted handicap, their campaigns never get off the ground. Obama was a rare exception because he realized intuitively what the data shows and made sure to appeal to all demographics and not just his perceived base, even if it meant being called “not black enough.” To the vast majority of South Asian American candidates the above is so obvious it doesn’t need mentioning. Our ethnic base is so small it would never be enough to solely rely on (except maybe in Jersey or Fremont). From the beginning, desi candidates have to work hard to appeal to all groups and their issues. Despite hard-to-pronounce names and brown skin this “tactic” helps us beat the odds that seem to stymie African American candidates.
Silver goes on to show that if you combine the two most prominent factors, the size of the African American population and the propensity of a state to vote for a particular party, the five most likely states to see an African American Senator or Governor are:
State Black PVI Prob
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p>Maryland 28.9 D+9 15.2%
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p>Mississippi 37.4 R+8 9.0%
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p>Louisiana 31.6 R+6 5.6%
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p>Georgia 29.8 R+6 4.3%
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p>Delaware 20.7 D+7 4.3%
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p>So Maryland has the greatest chance but it is still just ~15%.
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p>Now lets take a look at the states with the largest Asian population (including desis):
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Asian population by state |
Probability dictates that Bobby Jindal (a desi that represents his/her whole state) should have come from California, Illinois, or New York. Instead he came from Louisiana, about the most unlikely of places for a desi to be elected Governor based on race being an overriding factor. Right from the beginning Jindal downplayed his ties to his race in order to be seen as an everyman. Ashwin Madia almost won his district in Minnesota back in November. Granted, that wasn’t a seat that represented the whole state but he came really close despite a miniscule Asian American population in that state. His campaign focused heavily on his military and all-American background. My point? Don’t be surprised or turned off if future desi politicians downplay their “desiness” to get elected. In realpolitik appealing to other ethnic groups sometimes goes hand in hand with distancing yourself from your own in both obvious and subtle ways (including modifying your name). The real trick seems to be obtaining donations from wealthy Uncles and Aunties while simultaneously downplaying your culture as much as possible.
Woot! Welcome back, Melbourne Desi!
LOL at “got functioning neurons”–just saw this–whatever–when did I say there’s a Hindu pope? That doesn’t mean you can’t say “Hindus think x” where that means most Hindus. Give me a break. And, with all your “nuance” why do you view VHP-A members as so monolithic? We are multitudinous! I only joined b/c I’m sick of the demonization of any Hindu who is not on the Left. Anyway, Happy New Year. (Yeah, I’m syncretic like that!)
52 · rob said
so most hindus believe in exorcisms? that’s news to me. exorcisms are defintely not considered a mainstream ritual practice (usually considered quite distasteful or for the very poor who can’t access any medical care or the very last resort for those maladies aren’t cured by any other means, and who are desparate enough to try anything). i have no expertise on nepalese hinduism, and neither on the region you seem to be referring to where “most hindus” seem to practice exorcisms.
Look, I like and am proud of Bobby Jindal–my point was that his involvement with exorcism is not (and I respect his decision to become a Catholic) some sort of Abrahamic Sky-God v2.0 thing that has nothing to do w/ the Dharmic tradion(s).
52 · rob said
send a letter to VHP chief. Tell them you, a member of VHP (a), see nothing wrong with non-Hindus eating beef, and that they should allow butcher shops to sell beef in India, and not ask for bans on cow slaughter. Treat this as a test-case to see if VHP is that accommodating of classical liberalism (the political philosophy, not in the leftist sense). Let me know what happens after. Given your political views, I assume you’re for reasonable autonomy for all.
the truth, rob, is that you would not be hanging out with these people in india. they won’t see eye-to-eye with your cristal-swilling-clubbing lifestyle. they are not for heterogeneity, and your version of a rainbow VHP is misguided. yes, there are a variety of opinions among them, but there’s definitely an end to that spectrum. and were you in india, you would definitely not be included in it. and i’m saying this with an entirely respectful stance.
and please don’t let the VHP/VHP(A) distinction be your fig-leaf.
-portmanteau
Hey–I don’t swill! But, ok, then, where should I be? My main objection is to the attack on any sort of Vivekananda-esque pro-Hindu group as being Fascists–I really dislike what the Left has done to Bharat–and, my parents wouldn’t say this, but–please–this is why they left. They got a top-notch education in India–they left for economic opportunity, no (i.e., not allowed to flourish by the Left)? I don’t get along with my relatives in India anymore (my grandparents were awesome, but the aunties and uncles–puuuhlleeeze!), so, again, I’m a bad guy? I think not–I’m more into South Asia than most–I’m cooling my heels in Galle when I need a break from NYC.
56 · rob said
as long as your political stand is clear to yourself, rob, stand alone. you don’t need to join any group. you, of all people, know that the results of private effort can far exceed the efforts of any political party. i understand your frustration with the desi left. ok, but then why join the desi right? as far as economic development goes, these parties (ie congress+allies) have liberalized when india’s foreign reserves were empty, they couldn’t service our outstanding loans. pretty much all govts. have continued to liberalize, there is no other option. there are some projects where politicians need to backtrack because of bad publicity, but c’mon even the US right supported bail-outs when it had to. you want to make a difference? find a good project to which you can donate your hard-earned money. sponsor a scholarship. look up the barefoot schools. give money to a reputable microcredit organization. there are some neat infosys sponsored environmental/infrastructure thinktanks that operate out of bangalore. support VCs who make great projects happen in india. build a library. buy from rural craftpeople. collect indian art. give money to an army welfare organization. there is so much productive stuff happening and so many good people who need your assistance. i once recalled telling you how VHP was actually anti-market a while ago (i worked hard one time on a comment i wrote about anti-liberalization/anti-free trade hindu groups, including VHP (c. 1990s); don’t know if you read it). ok, vivekananda is gifted in many ways (incidentally, my dad is a huge fan; he made a large pen-and-ink portrait of v.n. which still hangs in our house :)), but i don’t see him endorsing what goes on with VHP et al. and no, all hindu organizations are not fascist, but some definitely show anti-democratic and anti-liberal (classical liberalism) tendencies.
Fair points, port–
That’s cool that your father is a Vivekananda fan–I have his collected works, passed down from my grandparents who aren’t Tamil (hehehe–they’re Biharis).
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blockquote>38 · Manju said
Growl.