For the past four and a half years, India has had a classy, educated, honest Prime Minister in Manmohan Singh. He’s often been criticized for not seeming forceful enough, but he did score a major success against both left and right in the nuclear deal and subsequent vote of no-confidence, and will probably join a relatively small number of Indian PMs in finishing out a complete five-year term. (Quick quiz: how many have there been?)
One person who is being talked about as a viable candidate for India’s next Prime Minister couldn’t be more different — Lalu Prasad Yadav. Yadav is the ex-Chief Minister of Bihar, where he rose to power in the “Mandal era” by mobilizing what are referred to as backward caste voting blocs in the state. Once in power, Yadav became nationally notorious as a rampantly corrupt figure, who embezzled at least $267 million in the “Fodder Scam”. He was eventually forced out of office, but was able to continue effectively running the state after he installed his wife, Rabri Devi, as Chief Minister in his stead. Starting in the late 1990s, Lalu Prasad Yadav became the punchline of many Indian jokes; even saying his name in some circles leads people to start smiling, in expectation of the joke to follow. (Another quiz: what are the names of his nine children?)
During the current UPA (Congress) administration he has had a second political life as the National Railways Minister — and he’s had remarkable success in turning around a huge government operation that had for decades been dominated by inefficiency and losses for the government. During its tenure (1999-2004), the NDA (BJP) had even been making noises to the effect that the only solution would be privatization, or failing that, raising ticket prices aggressively. But under Yadav, in 2008 alone the Railways earned profits of $6 billion — without raising passenger ticket prices at all. He may have been incredibly corrupt (and may still be corrupt), but he has been remarkably effective at turning around a major government agency.
I mention Lalu Prasad Yadav as a Prime Minister possibility as a reflection of the chatter I was hearing, mainly from relatives, as I was traveling in northern India last week. I have no idea whether it’s a real possibility, and I’m certainly far from thrilled about the possibility of someone so corrupt becoming Prime Minister. But it would nevertheless be interesting, partly because it would involve the country making a clear departure from the Nehru family and western-educated elites, in favor of someone with a strikingly different profile.
He may or may not become Prime Minister, but it does appear that while Lalu Prasad Yadav is still the butt of a few jokes, many Indians are starting to utter his name with newfound respect.
I mention Lalu Prasad Yadav as a Prime Minister possibility as a reflection
First, Lalu Prasad Yadav does not belong to Congress. He is from RJD. Should UPA/ Congress led coalition win, Sonia Gandhi will not give the helm to someone who is not even a Congressman.
He does lot of clout in cow belt, but can take diktat beyond that. But he has sworn enemies too, within his caste and base too.
If NDA wins, then it is BJP men.
If the third front wins, then it is Mayawati. She stands better chance than Lalu Prasad Yadav.
but he has been remarkably effective at turning around a major government agency.
Some of his methods are not without consequences.
Lalu pushed freight trains to overload to make profit, and that is destroying the railway tracks.
I meant: He does have a lot of clout in the cow belt, but can he take his diktat beyond that. He also has sworn enemies too, within his caste and base too.
just to throw some onion into the tadka, mayawati is cousin to narendra modi as per the viki.
meh… ‘education’ does not make for a good politician. i kind of go with the chretien-ism that one enters politics only because the desire to win is everything.
Lalu seems to be that kind of an animal. So is Mayawati. Singh is dudh-roti who was thrust up for being the most bland of the lot. rumor has it from among family and phrends, sonia is grooming her son to be the next p.m.
While travelling by train to some small towns in NI, i realized that the ticket cost between two same stations was 20% percent lower than what it used to be 10-12 years back. People are actually talking about free train travel. It already costs less than what you would pay to travel 2 Km by rickshaw after getting down from the train.
Kush, don’t you think they could arrange to stage a “party-joining” ceremony for him, if he seems like the best choice?
Also, if not him, who? Rahul Gandhi?
Kush, don’t you think they could arrange to stage a “party-joining” ceremony for him, if he seems like the best choice?
He has no love for Congress.
What binds him to UPA, is his dislike for BJP.
I do not think Rahul Gandhi will become PM right now, should UPA win.
I do not think Rahul Gandhi will become PM right now, should UPA win.
Again, who does that leave them with? I’m hardly an expert, but I don’t know of too many other figures within the Congress with national stature.
Just throwing this out there:
Incredible as it may seem, all the PMs that India has had so far have been older than the country they ruled. For whatever reason, we seem to believe in establishing gerontocracies and dynasties.
So, in the context of gerontocracies and dynasties:
Lalu Prasad Yadav: born 11 Jun 1947
Narendra Modi: born 17 Sep 1950
Rahul Gandhi: born 19 Jun 1970
/just saying…
Amardeep,
I think UPA winning a majority is not at all certain. NDA, and the third front will make strong gains in coming elections.
Should UPA win, Manmohan Singh will continue. Or someone like P. Chindambram or Pranab Mukherjee or Arjun Singh (Sonia Gandhi does not trust either Pranab or Arjub) will make the bid. She will not put Rahul for PMship before he is more seasoned. Before Lalu, Sharad Pawar will make his case, even though he does not belong to Congress either, and Sonia does not trust him either. Therefore, a candidate like Manmohan Singh or P. Chindambram become very viable.
There have been other prime ministers, even in the post-Emergency era: VP Singh was the first of the coalition-era prime ministers, and owed his rise to the Mandal agitations. He didn’t last long, and neither did Chandra Sekhar and Deve Gowda, but PV Narasimha Rao lasted a full term, and it was during his term that Manmohan Singh, as finance minister, first started the deregularization that led to the economic success of India today. Although PVNR was Congress elite, he wasn’t beholden to the Nehru family, and arguably this was part of the problem that led to his downfall (corruption was the rest). AB Vajpayee, the first BJP prime minister, was also decidedly not part of the “western-educated elite”.
I would say that the influence of the Nehru family has been ever-strong in the Congress party, but the Congress itself has waned in power over the last twenty years.
I think P. Chindambram is perhaps being put in a position to take the mantle for Congress. He has the HBS pedigree so people can fawn over his credentials as they do right now with Singh. Also as the new Home Minister, any action taken against terrorists/Pakistan will involve him and as the Indian media has picked up, the Indian public want action.
western-educated elites
Charan Singh, the PM of India immediately after Morarji D. lost confidence motion was a rustic farmer leader in true sense of the word.
He was PM briefly since Indira Gandhi pulled her support after a brief while.
Amardeep,
Lalu as PM? This is a mind boggling proposition !
1.Lalu may not even get the 24 odd seats he has won last time in Bihar
2.His ‘clout’ doesn’t extend beyond Bihar.
3.The Congress is using him as much as he is using Congress. And with UPA’s chances being so slim, I doubt if even Rahul Maino is dreaming of becoming PM in 2009.He is being groomed for 2013
Among all regional leaders (yes, Lalu is strictly a regional leader), Mayawati stands the best chance, as a third front PM supported by BJP from the out side.If things work out, Mayawati would happily dump the Left.And it is highly unlikely that Mayawati will support Congress.In fact, she is out to defeat Sonia, Rahul etc from their safe seats in UP.That is why, Congress is scouting for safe seats down south in AP (Medak is being mentioned as a safe LS seat for Sonia/Rahul).
There is no need for “a clear departure from…western-educated elites” in the higher levels of Indian officialdom, because no such bias exists to any meaningful level, despite the current regime (to its credit) containing a sprinkle of elite ostensibly technocrat types.
Narasimha Rao, Vajpayee, how on earth can these relatively recent, long-serving (and mostly adequate) PM’s be classified as “western-educated elites”.
Lalu Prasad is certainly a bumpkin, of an exceptionally rustic grade, who almost certainly cannot become PM considering the enemies he has made. But there’s very little about him that would mark a new direction in Indian politics if he did become PM.
Um, most of his “ideas” were originally proposed and started by Nitish Kumar, the former railway minister and the current CM of Bihar. Nitish has had success in cleaning up Bihar as well, something Lalloo could never do. He is quite foxy, but that will only take him somewhere near Paswan, or at best, Pranab.
Mayawati it is, and it will be an interesting government, tying all kinds of people in all kinds of knots.
Laloo vs. Modi?
Bleah — so why didn’t Nitish Kumar implement it? Why was the NDA talking about privatization?
In general, I’m not sure I agree with the general assessment here that the Congress is in great trouble. BJP has its own leadership/vision vacuum to contend with, and I think the left/third front option seems unlikely (I think the left parties may lose seats).
Also, the recent Congress victory in Rajasthan seems to bode well for them…
Amardeep,
It is your choice if you wish to highlight only favorable developments for Congress.And btw, Delhi was a good win for Congress.Rajasthan was not.
Talking of leadership vaccum, it is the Congress that can’t seem to see beyond a pathetic dependence on the Nehru-Gandhi-Maino dynasty.And no one in India (especially the Congress Party) thinks of MMS as the real PM, or has any doubts as to where he takes his orders from.
With the exception of Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra, Congress is not a dominant force in any major State of the country.And it will face anti-incumbency in these two states in the next LS elections.A lot will hinge on alliances, and the Third Front will definitely play king maker.The Left may lose a few seats on the whole, but their influence has always been (unfortunatley for the country) greater than their numbers, primarily because they are able to knit together alliances grounded on anti-BJP (‘secular’) plank.
It is far fetched idea that Lalu is going to be next PM. If Nitish mania is to be believed in Bihar, then it will be hard for Lalu to get even half of the seats that he is currently having. Come 2009 general election and probably we will see Lalu reducing to as a “non-union” and “non-state” actor for the first time after 1990.
lol !
I feel Lalu’s performance as Railway Minister has been over hyped by the media.
http://offstumped.nationalinterest.in/2008/02/26/time-to-shunt-lalu-express/#post-comments
Good comments all. Would also love to see some coverage on the Bangladesh elections on Sepia since I know very little about Bangladesh and its politics.
Name a politician that isn’t corrupt, and I’ll show you someone who’s not working in the Indian government. Corruption is probably an inevitable function of a weak state without enough on-the-book resources and is a red herring in identifying problems to focus on in South Asia. There’s very little data that’s useful comparing corruption across countries (transparency internationa’s methodology is highly subjective, from what i was taught) and similarly, from what i was taught, usually increase in GDP per capita would precede not follow from eliminating corruption. Even South Korea had a lot of corruption in the 1960s – it just channeled its uses better. If you give it a few decades, it will be legalized (like U.S. earmarks or contracting) or eliminated (to lower transaction costs) if things continue more or less as they are – it’s not something congenital to South Asians or poor people but just a reality of the social and economic situations they’re in – there are far bigger problems in India.
He’s a good placeholder until Mayawati or someone like her. Certainly better than the other alternatives discussed above (Rahul Gandhi seems like a schmuck) and that I’ve heard (certainly the frightening prospect of Modi, though the speculation that I would find more likely is him as Home Minister – which is almost more frightening). Of course, you never know.
Until NREGA / state elections after Mumbai / possibility of war with Pakistan, I would have agreed that a BJP win would be far more likely based purely on anti-incumbent voting, but now I’m not sure. I’m just waiting for a stronger third force to emerge – hopefully an alliance of social democrats / anti-casteist / left. I know it won’t happen 🙂 But maybe it will1!!!
Most of the third front is dependent on caste equations.People like Lalu and Mulayam add the pro-jihadi element to this mix.The left is no better as it encourages religion-based vote bank politics.The BJP is anti-casteist (as it sees caste as a divider of the Hindu vote, and it is true), but being right of centre is not exactly fashionable these days.The Congress is the summation of all evils in Indian polity.
So, I don’t think the Indian electorate has any decent options available.
Congress – stands for corruption, dynastic rule and its attendant psycofancy, playing divisive vote bank politics, cynical abuse of power etc etc
Left – is generally irrelevant except in Kerala and WB, and becomes relevant on the national stage only during times of political crisis, when they can demand the pound of flesh for their MP seats
BJP – is confused about the best way to win at the centre; seems unable to get rid of people like L.K.Advani; and where it is in power, there is hardly any difference between the BJP and Congress rule
May be India needs a Presidential form of Govt? And if there is a straight fight between Modi Vs whoever the Congress puts up, it would be just great political theatre.And would result in a decisive mandate for the winner.
But unfortunately, we have the first-past-the-post parliamentary system, and have to contend with the likes of Rahul Maino Gandhi, Lalu Yadav, and other such creatures.
Kush, I think you have to give credit where credit is due. The story I was told was that the freight trains had been carring a certain amount of freight for a long, long time but that they did have the capacity to carry more. Lalu decided that all he needed to do was to have the tracks and bridges inspected all the time and if they held up he could go ahead with the plan of doubling the freight they carried. So far it seems to have worked. Of course his lack of education shows up in other ways such as his idea of replacing glass and porcelain cups for tea with kullars (terracotta?) cups. Not only are these non-reusable but they are non-biodegradable and require thousands of years to disintigrate but he went and did it anyway.
Otherwise, I’m not that horrified with the thought of Lalu. At this point I feel it’s better to have someone who’s finished with all the looting he had to do and may want to do some real work. Ditto for Mayawati.
Lalu’s name is being uttered by the chattering classes if not with reverence, then certainly without the jibes and jokes that would inevitably follow. Lalu Prasad Yadav is not a joke anymore. He’s being taken seriously. As for India choosing somebody not from the Nehru-Gandhi/ Western educated fold….I think we already did that with Mr Vajpayee.
Why don’t we look for leaders who have a clean record, and are known to be focused on doing some real work?There are a few such leaders if we apply fair ideological standards, than being satisfied with a corrupt-to-the-core communal socialists?
Btw, I am not so sure about any such Indian politician thinking that he/she has done enough looting.They never get satisfied.See the Nehru-Gandhi-Maino family sucking the country like leeches, with no end in sight. See the Karunanidhi family, the Jat leaders of UP and Haryana,the Amar Singhs of the world, and the scions of Scindia…none of them would ever feel that its enough, and that they need to start doing some work.
There is an interesting study of how 4 young MPs in India perform in Parliament; blogger Vikram Garg compared the performance of Rahul Maino Gandhi, Omar Abdullah, Sachin Pilot and Kiren Rijiju (Kiren who?)
I don’t want an Indian Obama.But why can’t we have people like Rijiju at the helm of affairs?India needs young leaders with little or no baggage of the past.
first up – i am ripe enough to know that people can go through university and be the most uneducated people around. so i think your comment is an unnecessary diss. a politician is a very canny beast and i would not put them down just because they arent your social class. the last time i traveled by train, i wasnt handed porcelain or glass cups. these were flimsy plastic cups that were dumped out of the window. the cows ate these and it blocked their bowels until they keeled over. kulhars arent that bad. here’s an adorable reminiscence by a young person. they are made of clay (not terracotta) and are way more ‘biodegradable’ than plastic or porcelain.
Moot point…the Congress is not going to win the elections anyway. The BJP/NDA will win, so Advani will be in control. If he doesn’t become PM himself, I’m hoping he’ll nominate someone like Jaswant Singh for the post.
Wrong. VP Singh owed his rise to the Bofors issue and his clean image. Only after he became the PM, he brought the Mandal report out of the dust bin and implemented it to get a support base among OBCs.
Anyone can become a PM in India.
So it could be Manmohan Singh / P Chidambaram / Pranab Mukerjee if the Congress led UPA wins (or) some one acceptable to the “secular” folks like Abdul Kalam if BJP led NDA wins and falls short of majority. (or) Who knows even Prakash Karat / Sitaram Yechury could end up becoming the PM ?.
The recent history of coalition governments shows that other than Vajpayee, the PMs like Narasimha Rao / I.K.Gujral / Deve gowda / Manmohan Singh were chosen because the supporting parties did not feel threatened by the folks.
My bets would be on Mayawati if she can sweep UP and end up with 60 MP seats. I won’t bet that much on Laloo Yadav.
Quite a few of Dalits are angry at Mayawati for what she has done generally to the Dalit movement by compromising with the upper castes.
Anyways it would be fun to watch the Indian political scene next year.
Beyond a doubt Manmohan’s well educated. His honesty, though touted by the media, is suspect — this was brought up in the thread on the confidence motion. His actions (recall the deals with Amar Singh, the interactions during office of profit, his post Mumbai address, etc) have been anything but classy.
In any case, none of these are requirements to be a prime minister. If the congress is in a strong position, the PM will be a member of the Nehru/ Gandhi clan, or someone extremely loyal to them, like MMS. If the the third front wins, it is a complete tossup. (think how Gujral / Dewe Gowda / Chandrashekar, etc came to power)
P.S. Laloo is well educated — he has a Masters in Political Science from Patna University. (if liberal arts can be considered an education 😉 )
Manmohan Singh – HONEST & CLASSY??….CLASSY??? (for god’s sake – his voice seems like that of a woman who is half way morphing into a man)
Seems like another Sardar joke to me.
That’s right. Unfortunately the replacement scheme for plastics with mud / clay cups is a failure because of storage and packing issues. I think they reverted back to plastics after trying out the clay cups for a while.
One cool thing I found on my last long distance travel (a shatabdi from Dehradun to Delhi) was the use of cell phones by the food caterers, they ask the passengers before hand if they need any food and order thru cell phones, pick up the orders in the next station and deliver, there by reducing the storage / maintenance and need for a pantry car. Though I’d have liked the old model pantry, this is better than getting down in railway stations and buying food. But I found the condition of the Delhi railway station (Nizamuddin) to be worse. I was expecting the capital city to have a nicer railway station, but it is worse.
The first non-Western educated prime minister of India who owed nothing to the Nehru khandaan was Lal Bahadur Shastri almost immediately after Nehru’s death. (Nanda was briefly – 13 days – a sort of acting PM between the two. Comically he served for another 13 days immediately after Shastri’s death. The circumstances of his ascension and the number of days suggest a religiously ritual significance.)
The Congress elite subverted Indian democracy at this point by thrusting Indira Gandhi into power. Like other ‘puppets’ Congress installed, this Frankenstein too cost India dear.
you’re right actually, it was an unnecessary diss since there are so many smart uneducated people in India.
But the ones that Lalu used were not the old-style kullars with the lovely smell. They were some stupid concoction and if the articles I read about them are to be believed, they are worse than plastic in terms of biodegrability. Also, clay, once it’s been put through the furnace does not biodegrade easily.
Nizamuddin is sort of a tertiary station and very unimpressive, although conveniently located. The main railway station is in Old Delhi and then there’s the New Delhi station in Paharganj.
Classy!
I see. Thank you for the correction.
Still, I’d have expected the railway stations in the capital city to be neat and well maintained. It is a big one, had atleast 10-15 platforms (I think)
There’s one and only truth to “Sardar jokes”: when told by a Sikh, the jokes are actually funny. When told by a non-Sikh, they are usually made out of spite or envy.
Good point. I dont find the Sardar jokes funny because if you replace the Sardar with a member of another group, the joke stops being funny. So the humor is in mocking the supposedly immutable buffoonery of Sikhs. I am not sure whats funny about that. Also whats up with the 12 noon jokes and Sikhs. Whats the origin of these jokes?
Ponniyin and Divya
Last Feb I visited Secunderabad station in Hyd after a 20 yr. gap. I couldn’t beleive how clean and modern it was. It competes with train stations in most of Europe. Wow! Another reason to vote for Chandrababu Naidu.
I have heard similar stories about the new airports in Hyderabad and Bangalore. Shows that if the leadership is focussed enough on infrastructure development, it can deliver.
We should appreciate Lalu, Indian Railways had made a lot of customer friendly moves over the past few years. I understand that much of it is due to advancements in communications and could have happened regardless.
27 · Kumar_N said
If corruption, eliteness, simplicity are the issues, India’s union defense minister A K Antony. comes to my mind. He has never earned a penny other than his salary from Indian politics. But he took a hit on the Bombay incident. At the time of his resignation from the Union Cabinet of the NV Rao ministry, his bank balance was around a mere six thousand rupees. I am pretty sure that he does not have a swiss account. Sonia trust him very much. He will give the power back on the request from party, as he has done several times.
Notwithstanding all the murmurs about creative accounting, money being diverted from maintenance etc., this aspect – making things far more accessible and easy to use, from computerized reservations, to even distributing unreserved tickets through local paanwalaas in the city – is definitely very impressive.
i, for one, certainly did not see this coming under a laloo ministry, especially given his abysmal record in bihar.
well, santa singh and banta singh were taking a walk when they heard the clock bells toll….
Re: the “sardar joke” comment (Suraj 32). Seriously?! Replace “Sikh” with “Jew” or “Black” and then say with a straight face that you would make the same comment. Hindi films and TV serials take great pleasure in portraying Sardars as jolly, silly, stupid, etc. This is as insidious as negative portrayals of Black people in Hollywood. At any rate, if you don’t think Manmohan Singh is classy, tell us why (maybe with an example). How about trying to talk about Manmohan Singh by making a serious evaluation of his rather serious position as PM instead of taking the opportunity to throw in an ethnic/religious joke. If his name was “Mahesh Sharma” instead of “Manmohan Singh,” maybe you could actually be bothered to make an actual point.
32 · Suraj said
Classy. I do not think that word means what you think it means.
That latter characterization is not exactly true. There have been changes in the number of seats available for advance booking, and a much larger number of seats is now in the “Tatkal” category with associated fees and surcharges, if I understand correctly. That said, my understanding is that the railways apparently do automatic upgrades to the next higher class of service if seats are available (for example, from second class to second class AC), which is definitely a smart move from a customer satisfaction aspect. (not entirely surely how this upgrade works, so I am speculating based on what I’ve heard)
It’s shameful that if person A (who happens to be Sikh) and person B (Hindu of course) both do or say the same stupid thing, person A will be ridiculed mercilessly and his entire ethno-religious group will be included. In fact his act of stupidity will be ascribed to his ethno-religious background. Where as person B gets a free pass, or at the most will be ridiculed on a personal basis, without his entire community being brought into it. Polish jokes served the same purpose in America back in the day, before basic decency and a bit of political correctness came into the picture and put an end to it.
The ridicule of Sikhs is certainly perpetrated by Bollywood and Indian television (albeit with many positive portrayals as well, including liberal use of Sikh boys in patka for commercials). The fact is that this relentless ridicule has led many youngsters to shed their Sikh appearance in order to avoid being made fun of, and to fit in better.
Sikhs attacked the marauding hordes of Abdali etc in guerilla fashion at midnight (baraah) hence -baraah bajj gae, Sikkhon ka time ho gia…..
Very true.