With the DNC approaching, it is a good time to examine one very relevant recent piece of news that will surely impact my generation. The U.S. Census recently reported that by 2042, “Americans who identify themselves as ethnic and racial minorities” (NYT) will outnumber those who do not. This was earlier than the previously predicted 2050, and it is a trend that could have profound influences on all elements of American society. Here is a short summary of the demographic changes:
The census calculates that by 2042, Americans who identify themselves as Hispanic, black, Asian, American Indian, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander will together outnumber non-Hispanic whites. Four years ago, officials had projected the shift would come in 2050.
The main reason for the accelerating change is significantly higher birthrates among immigrants. Another factor is the influx of foreigners, rising from about 1.3 million annually today to more than 2 million a year by midcentury, according to projections based on current immigration policies.
“No other country has experienced such rapid racial and ethnic change,” said Mark Mather, a demographer with the Population Reference Bureau, a research organization in Washington. (NYT)
Jeffrey S. Passel, from the Pew Hispanic Center, says, “Almost regardless of what you assume about future immigration, the country will be more Hispanic and Asian.” When it comes to Asian-Americans, “People who say they are Asian, with their ranks soaring to 41 million from 16 million, will make up more than 9 percent of the population, up from 5 percent” (NYT). Here is the brief Wall Street Journal analysis of how this will impact politics:
The growing share of retired white baby boomers are more likely to be concerned about issues like pensions and health care for themselves and their parents. The growing share of minorities will be concerned about issues like education and job growth. “You always get that generational shift, but now there’s a racial layer over it,” says Mr. Passel.
Shifting demographics may change everything from local and national elections to bilingual education and the rationale behind affirmative-action plans. Already, fast-growing states in the Sunbelt and West are seeing signs that shifting demographics could alter state politics. Barack Obama, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, is campaigning hard in Nevada and Colorado — two states that were carried by President Bush in 2004 but have grown more Democratic as the states have added more young and minority voters.