This post is a response of sorts to Abhi’s thought-provoking comments on Musharraf’s State of Emergency, and what he sees as the possible benefits of dictatorship in certain limited conditions. Abhi’s post, as I read it, was a thought experiment, not necessarily a political program — and this is a somewhat speculative thought experiment as well (these ideas are not set in stone). There is some value in the general idea that democracy before stability is not always the best thing for a country, and in the particular claim that Pakistan’s democratic institutions have been severely weakened by years and years of misrule (going back to the Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif days; Musharraf did not start this with his 1999 coup).
That said, I’m not ready to give up faith in liberal democracy, and I think it could still happen in Pakistan. As for how to get there, there are probably only two or three paths at this point, none of them easy. One is a popular uprising that would probably turn pretty ugly in the short run — think of the bloody riots in Karachi this past summer, only magnified. If successful (big “if”), mass protests/riots could be followed by a military coup and a provisional dictatorship, and then by open elections — again, if the coup was carried out by the right person. (There could also be more violence during the elections, and possibly more trouble/instability even after they occur.) The other is something accidental, which could be anything. Perhaps a new leadership emerges (Imran Khan, by the way, has managed to escape from house arrest — I wish him luck), or perhaps something unforeseen happens to/with Musharraf that leaves a power vacuum? Perhaps both? Who knows. Either way, in my view there is no question that if democracy is to have a chance in Pakistan, Musharraf has to go.
Another possibility to speculate on is what might happen if either the Bush administration or (more likely) its successor were to withold military and economic aid to pressure Musharraf to cancel this State of Emergency. Here I’m really not sure what the ramifications would be for Musharraf. It might be symbolically bad on the international stage, but would it really hurt him all that much domestically? Here I’m really not sure.
I should also say that I disagree with the calculus, which is widely prevalent amongst American TV pundits right now (and also implied in Abhi’s post), that Musharraf needs to stay because America needs him for its “War on Terror.” There may or may not be any truth in this (as has been pointed out, Musharraf’s net contribution to fighting terrorism is highly debatable), but what I keep thinking is that at this moment it’s not America’s interests that I’m concerned about, it’s the Pakistani people, who deserve good, transparent governance. It’s the Pakistani people who deserve a free press (not blackouts of private news channels), the right to peacefully dissent, and the right to organize politically — who deserve, in short, substantive democracy. Continue reading →