Benazir Comes Home [updated]

Benazir Bhutto returned to Karachi today, flying in from Dubai to greet large crowds of supporters.

benazir-karachi.jpg
One is often cynical about Pakistani politics, but it seems to me this is a hopeful event. A lot of things have changed since Bhutto left eight years ago, and I suspect if she ever does return to power she will do things differently than she did earlier. In the short run, of course, she will be an opposition leader, and will have to contend with both President Musharraf and a not-always-sympathetic Supreme Court.

There are, of course, people who doubt this is going anywhere. One such is Adrian Levy, who has a scathing account of the evolution of Bhutto’s power-sharing agreement at Comment is Free (at the Guardian):

The deal-making continued in earnest in early 2007, propelled by Musharraf’s weakening position. Aziz and General Kiani returned to see Bhutto again in March with a dangerous proposal. If she stayed away from Pakistan during the general election, Musharraf would “adjust the vote” to favour her party. He was offering to rig the election. Bhutto refused. Instead, she penned 36 demands, including the freeing of all political workers and a transparent election, but also indemnity from all personal criminal actions, as well as a change to the law preventing anyone from serving as prime minister for three terms.

By the end of September, with her conditions met, Bhutto was presented with Musharraf’s terms. If she won the election, she would agree to support him as a civilian president for his full five-year term and cede all responsibility for foreign affairs, internal and external security, the country’s WMD programme and its armed services to him. Given that the opaque military also fixed its budget, that left Bhutto’s prospective new government with a paltry number of low-octane domestic portfolios that revolved around the gritty municipal functions of government (including education and health). All very worthy, but not where power in Pakistan lies.

For the increasingly difficult-to-read Pakistan military, this deal, which Bhutto’s return today highlights, spells salvation, continuity and prosperity. Since Musharraf came to power in 1999, the armed services have acquired spectacular wealth, investing in everything from the asphalt people drive on, to the petrol they put in their tanks. They also control the equivalent to 12% of the total landmass of Pakistan, of which only 70,000 acres is set aside for military facilities. The other 12m acres have been turned into private farmland and individual estates for Musharraf’s key generals, making them millionaires. Musharraf, too. Although he officially lives for free in Army House, in Rawalpindi, on a salary of $1,400 a month, he has somehow acquired a real-estate portfolio worth $10m. (link)

A cynic could argue that there’s a problem if laws have to be changed in order for “democracy” to return.

A cynic could also argue that Musharraf will still pull all the important strings.

A cynic could argue that the Supreme Court should throw both Benazir Bhutto and Pervez Musharraf out of office.

A cynic could argue those things. (But I wouldn’t, not today; I’m trying to be optimistic!)

[Update: A few hours after I posted this, a massive bomb went off near Bhutto’s convoy, killing hundreds of people. Her earlier statement about not being afraid of would-be-terrorists now begins to seem in poor taste: “… Ms Bhutto said before leaving that she was undeterred [by threats of attacks]: “I do not believe that any true Muslim will make an attack on me because Islam forbids attacks on women and Muslims know that if they attack a woman they will burn in hell.”

One wishes, now, that she hadn’t made such an irresponsible statement.]

108 thoughts on “Benazir Comes Home [updated]

  1. A cynic might also point out that Benazir is just as incompetent, weak, and therefore as corrupt as she ever was – and that a big part of her deal with Musharraf was the sweeping under the rug of the several criminal charges of monye laundering and corruption that she and her husband currently face. But that cynic would have to admit they’ve never really forgiven her for the unmitigated geopolitical disaster that was her time in office in 1988 and the 90’s.

  2. So, for the foreseeable future, we have to continue dealing with two-face-Mushy on the anti-terror front. Fun!

  3. Bull. As one of my friends put it “Oh great, the botoxed bitch is coming back, time to get fucked over again”. Benazir and Nawaz Sharif are both incredibly corrupt and shouldn’t be allowed within five hundred miles of the country. Actually, none of the politicians should. Pakistan isn’t ready for/doesn’t need a democracy, it needs a benevolent dictatorship that can educate people, get rid of the fucking feudal system, and stop racking up howlingly large amounts of foreign debt. Democracy is a lovely theory for us, but the practicability of the idea is far from realisation.

    Adrian Levy is also about three-odd decades behind in his “news”. The situation with the military snapping up wealth and increasing its asset base has been old hat since the 1960s; the only difference is that the generals etc., have tended to be marginally more discreet about their pillaging. It should say something when the ritziest housing neighbourhoods tend to be named “Defence Housing Authority”, “Cantonement”, “Cavalry” and the like (except for Islamabad, which one could argue is even more regimented with its F-1, E-8, G-11/3 sectors). Personally, I don’t see Benazir doing anything particularly differently, unless she’s somehow checked by the somewhat-revitalised Supreme Court and/or the Army, but I doubt that substantially. For both her and Nawaz Sharif, this is less about coming back to serve their country, and far more about looting it as rapidly as possible while still basking in the “adulation” of millions.

    I really hate our politicians.

  4. I really hate our politicians.

    No kidding!

    From the pictures I was wondering whether it was botox, or just heavily caked on make-up.

    How about Begum Nawazish Ali for Prime Minister? 😉

  5. it’s fine to be optimistic, but i am not sure why anyone would suspect benazir bhutto will do differently now than she ever did in the past. she’s failed twice as a leader, and it’s debatable if her third time will be a charm. given her track record, how much optimism is really warranted? let’s not forget it was during her rule that the taliban were first nurtured and cultivated, so it’s a bit rich for her to try and present herself as a leader who’ll fight terrorism. and it’s not just the pakistani government that lodged corruption charges against her–the swiss government has also convicted her and zardari of money-laundering. by the time she was deposed in 1996, most pakistanis felt she didn’t care at all about their best interests– only her own and her family’s. it’s unfortunate that all the alternatives now look so dismal that she’s seen as the answer.

  6. I’m on the same wavelength as Sin, but a little less bitter and cynical. But then, I don’t live in Karachi.

    The real story with Benazir is how she cultivated the American government and the American right-wing, and outfoxed Nawaz Sharif (admittedly, a small turtle could outfox Nawaz Sharif — but bear with me).

    Check out this Cal Thomas column on Benazir in the News tab: (Thomas is a far right US pro-Christian U.S. columnist with little time for Muhammadans).

    Former Pakistani President Benazir Bhutto, a moderate Muslim, was in Washington last week. I asked her how concerned the United States should be, especially when we see and hear radical talk .. Bhutto says the West is losing the war against the radicals. On Oct .18, she plans to return to Pakistan from exile in order to fight them and she wants to see a debate within Islam and more support for building mosques and publishing books based on moderate interpretations of Islam to counter the radicals.

    This edition of Benazir is made in Washington DC; she’s using the self-delusions of the US right wing to get herself into power. It’s the “Ahmed Chalabi manoeuvre” — but unlike Chalabi, Bhutto will probably succeed.

  7. This edition of Benazir is made in Washington DC; she’s using the self-delusions of the US right wing to get herself into power. It’s the “Ahmed Chalabi manoeuvre” — but unlike Chalabi, Bhutto will probably succeed.

    I feel the same way.. I don’t know the English name. In Tamil it’s called “bommalattam” where dolls are made to play different roles for the audience while the person who is pulling the strings is on the back and no one notices him.

  8. Amardeep, the amount of work she has had done is absurd. The Washington Post had a hilarious (intentional or not, I’m unsure) picture of her from a few years ago, in which she looks like she’s been run over by the Ugly Truck, juxtaposed with a current picture in which she’s clear-and-taut-skinned, has lost two chins, and had a good haircut. Several of my (ex-Army) cousins who are doctors and cosmetic surgeons, started a pool to take wagers on identifying rhinoplasties, chemical peels, botox and the like. 🙂

    admittedly, a small turtle could outfox Nawaz Sharif

    Well, I don’t know about turtles, but Mush does occasionally remind me of a grizzled chipmunk…

  9. From the original article,

    Instead, she penned 36 demands, including the freeing of all political workers and a transparent election, but also indemnity from all personal criminal actions, as well as a change to the law preventing anyone from serving as prime minister for three terms. Given that the opaque military also fixed its budget, that left Bhutto’s prospective new government with a paltry number of low-octane domestic portfolios that revolved around the gritty municipal functions of government (including education and health).

    –> So, what will she do with no budgeting authority, foreign affairs and home ministries ? I think she gets cases against her removed, comes to power, corruption shoots up, tries to extend her budgeting power, Musharraf packs her off to Saudi Arabia, US releases a statement supporting stability of pakistan. Benazir and Sharif commiserate. Musharraf points to reduced corruption and US politicians heave a sigh of relief.

    Although he officially lives for free in Army House, in Rawalpindi, on a salary of $1,400 a month, he has somehow acquired a real-estate portfolio worth $10m.

    –> Musharraf, meet Jayalalitha. Jayalalitha, meet Musharraf.

  10. Benazir is going to do jackscot for Pakistan. She’s a darling of the West being a “progressive” woman leader in the Islamic world, leading on a exalted but flawed legacy and the West is really hedging its bets. Her past terms as Pak PM have been miserable failures but she has managed to keep her powerbase, both at home and abroad, by successfully projecting and managing the image of being the wronged one. The Pak army, read Mush and his cronies and men, still wields the stick in the country and will continue to do so. She might have landed in Karachi and Sindh, but the power lies in Punjab and with the Army.

  11. Check out her comments during the flight from Dubai to Karachi (via the BBC)–these would make a cynic of anyone!

    “I am feeling very excited and overwhelmed,” she said.

    “There are so many messages; so many press interviews, and now that I am homeward bound,” she added, “I believe I can truly say that miracles do happen.”

  12. The flight from Dubai is less than 2 hours!! C’mon….Amardeep…..this is hardly news!

  13. What’s different between the 1980s and early 1990s and now – is the geopolitical environment. The Soviet Union is history, the US is in South Asia – and in all countries – Afghanistan, Pakistan, India. In each, its presence has a mix of financial and military character – India is mostly investments (though the strategic deal-alliance is on the anvil and military joint exercises go on), while in both Pakistan and Afghanistan there is more military presence than financial and business; though they’re there too. Finally, Pakistan and India are ‘declared’ nuclear powers, and India has decisively moved toward liberalizing its economy.

    So if you listen to Benazir speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations from back in August – she’s now a lot more conciliatory towards India – after all, you can hardly have billions of dollars of investment go into India only to have the military of another client state threaten it with nuclear weapons! 🙂 So from both India and Pakistan’s point of view, this semi-overt semi-friendliness is better than an overt hostility, and that’s a plus. Also, the very fact that Musharraf was forced to do a deal with her – weakens him. And although it also weakens her, I regard the weakening of the military’s role in governance as a positive.

    So all in all, same but different, and marginally better.

  14. Also, the very fact that Musharraf was forced to do a deal with her – weakens him.

    I think the sentiment there is accurate, but would argue that what you’re talking about is weakening Mush as an individual (be that as the President, a general or a person, etc.), not the institution that is the Pakistani army/military conglomerate. The generals come and go, but the military remains (influential).

  15. Sin, not to contradict your on-the-ground assessment – but I feel the Pakistani military will also slowly weaken in its overall hold on the country. The dynamic has been let loose. Getting Benazir into troika with Musharraf and Kiyani is the first step. Letting the military get too strong (“a state within a country”) was what led to A.Q. Khan and his antics, and that has not been forgotten by the powers that be.

  16. How about this quote from the BBC?

    “… Ms Bhutto said before leaving that she was undeterred [by threats of attacks]: “I do not believe that any true Muslim will make an attack on me because Islam forbids attacks on women and Muslims know that if they attack a woman they will burn in hell.”

    Maybe Hillary could increase her chances of winning the election is she pulled the woman-card, and then trumped herself with the burn-in-hell-card?

  17. I’ve heard talk that Musharraf let Benazir land and stay, while kicking Nawaz Sharif out as soon as he landed once again simply because he knows corruptible and easily manipulated Benazir is. Nawaz may be a destructive moron (ha, Ikram!) but he was significantly slimier, knows how to bluster a bit better, and is unpredictable – and is less easy to control. Makes sense to me.

  18. Kabob Sahib – what a quote! … Ms Bhutto said before leaving that she was undeterred [by threats of attacks]: “I do not believe that any true Muslim will make an attack on me because Islam forbids attacks on women and Muslims know that if they attack a woman they will burn in hell.”

    Ohhhh, that makes me want to punch a wall. There is nothing – absolutely nothing – between her ears. sigh

  19. Talking about Benazir Bhutto, someone just sent me a picture (I am sure its doctored) of Bhutto in a miniskirt!

  20. Chachaji, certainly. And I think you’re right re: A.Q. Khan, but the deciding factor in that particular round of idiocy was Nawaz, who basically used the “Muslim bomb to save us from the Hindus in India” routine because of his fast-fading popularity, and to get back in with the mullah contingent. The army really was very incidental to that.

    The reason I remain so cynical about any slackening of the army’s control is because until there’s an active effort to integrate the ridiculously large standing force into the civilian population, and to start channelling the absurd amounts of army-centric GDP into municipal infrastructure, the institution remains a slumbering bear. It wasn’t terribly active back in the late 80s and early 90s, smarting from Zia’s ham-handedness and content to let the civilian govts. pound each other into the ground, but that changed as soon as there was any sort of action taken “against” it. There are too many things that need to be done first; cessation of recruitment, phasing out of funding, that sort of thing, and my gut instinct is that it’d take the Supreme Court in conjunction with some sort of revolutionary (i.e. NOT BB, Nawaz, Altaf Hussain or others of their ilk) to really make such things happen. The entrenchment is just too solid at this point; one of the reasons I held out some hope for Imran Khan, for example, is because in the face of a cricketing legend with huge amounts of popularity, even blindly indoctrinated political/army people find themselves wavering. We need someone with his sort of appeal–and much more credible instincts–who can actually push some sort of revolution through.

    Hopefully I’ll be on a beach in the Maldives when said revolution occurs, but still… 😉

  21. I think Musharraf simply didn’t want Sharif in the country when his own re-election, along with the court case(s) and the Benazir deal, was still up in the air. I’ve heard that Sharif will be ‘allowed’ to come back before the general elections, which are to be in January. I’m guessing he returns as soon as the present court case returns a verdict, Musharraf is sworn in, resigns from the Army, and the general election is announced. Tentative date for Sharif to come back: Nov. 20, 2007. 🙂

  22. I’m old enough to remember her first homecoming in the late 1980s. Her book ‘Daughter of the East’ accompanied her homecoming and was hugely popular in the subcon. I don’t have any high hopes for her.

  23. I have many Bloody military should take over this bloody country uncles. I take great joy in saying, “In your scotch-addled dreams”. Why can’t Pakistan keep its military in check? Any of the defense wonks out there want to comment? Hopefully this does not inspire sweetness like “X race/country/system is inherently superior to Y race/country/system”. Corrupt politicians, shady military deals — almost every major country has them. Just google MIG crashes and see what you get.

  24. I came to this Website doing a search on Gunjan Saxena and I continued to read until my company’s nightwatchman threw me out – congratulations, there is hope for the subcontinent! Hilarious, well informed and right on the spot.

    But on the topic posted above: what moved the Pakistani people to chose the (probably) very special option which is going to make things worse. If Musharraf is nothing but a Military Dictator (to some in the west (specially defence/intelligence community), including me (for a time), he looked like the saviour of P. – ok, we know now he isn’t) AND the military of P. is enriching itself so shameless, that’s still not a match to the Bhuttos and Sharifs style of treating a country like a personal posession.

    That is one feudal, spoiled, egocentric and DANGEROUS bitch with really nothing useful between those semi-plastic ears! I don’t want to foster racism, but if anyone in Britain was ever looking for an argument why not to allow foreigners for higher education, they could find it right here.

    P.S.: you really shouldn’t calll him ‘Mushy’! Hmmmphhh!

  25. P.S.2: She will probably develop a very special female relationship to C. Rice and then WOE, WOE TU US ALL!

  26. In local domestic news, the House Republicans, ignoring a majority of the US public, voted against the SCHIP program, and the Democrats didn’t receive enough votes to override a presidential veto. And good ole Bobby Jindal, who was threatening to override, didn’t even show up for the vote. And, why do folks on this board support this republican desi again?

  27. Sin, I wanted to acknowledge your good points in #23, but would add that every long journey begins with a single step!

    My comment #24 was in response to Haldiram @20

  28. 29, way off topic. There are enough current threads where that comment would have been on topic.

    As far as Musharaff and Benazir, I never understood why Musharaff didn’t hold elections right away when he dissolved the Sharif government. I remember him being popular at the time and he did not piss off the Islamic fundamentalists to the extent he did later(hell, he encouraged some of them with the Kashmir angle). Plus he did not have the corrupt reputation of Sharif of Benazir’s family. He could have avoided the whole dictator thing by doing that way back then.

  29. i would imagine that the combination of

    1. term limits
    2. a ban on multiple office holdings
    3. a ban on military officers holding civilian posts
    4. audited elections

    would fundamentally transform that place. not sure if thats in any powerfull peoples best interest though.

  30. I wonder why the blasts don’t surprise me. Pakistan has got too many generals, too many zamindars and too any mullahs for it’s own good. And the Pakistanis on this forum are either too educated or too middle class for their own good. Ignorance is bliss y’all. Forget you ever heard of that crazy little thing called democracy.

    I have always felt a good economy is the solution to Pakistan’s woes (and I don’t mean a growth deriving off US aid). That will make the people get busy in the rat race, Thus the army wont be able to make Pak obsess over India, the mullahs would not get enough morons for their mumbo jumbo and the zamindars wont find as many people to exploit due to the job options for the poorest. India and Pakistan would have enough riding in terms of business that a war would not make sense. But all of this will be detrimental to the people who matter in Pakistan and thus we are not going to see a healthy democracy in Pakistan for a while. Bombs away!

  31. And seriously, what’s with the new darling of the masses Benazir looking like she just made a deal with Pinochet Pinocchio.

  32. So will she publicly take on any sort of responsibility for the violence and deaths surrounding her pomp-filled return or will she pass it of on a coincidental jihadi plastique-burp?

  33. Amardeep,

    It is interesting to see the reaction of Pakistani bloggers (English), especially those ones that are based in Karachi. People seem to be unanimous in their disapproval. Incidentally, Karachi Metblogs has updated reports on the tragedy.

    Btw, great posts, the past two.

  34. With this bombing and the deaths that are now mounting her statement yesterday about terrorists burning in hell starts to seem questionable — almost a kind of needless taunt: “see, you can’t kill me, I dare you.”

    The first thing she has to do tomorrow is make a statement about the lives lost. This is no longer about her; it’s about the 100+ people who are dead.

  35. Amardeep,

    probably the highest-traffic conservative blog already characterized her now-hollow rhetoric as ‘courage.’ I wonder if they’ll update the post with at least some comment about the dead. (probably not, but it is useful to see how her rhetoric v. what actually happened after she arrived plays in western media)

  36. 45 Amardeep

    The first thing she has to do tomorrow is make a statement about the lives lost. This is no longer about her; it’s about the 100+ people who are dead

    –> Brace yourself for an announcement that Benazir considers the loss of lives as a testament to her political base. Her behaviour in this whole ‘return of the daughter’ story has been about her and her alone. It will (probably) continue to be so.

    It is sad that this many lives were senselessly taken away for a silly spectacle such as this but for Benazir, it is killing 2 birds with one stone.

    A display of her(and consequently PPP’s) political power and ineffectiveness of Musharraf in handling terrorists inside pakistan. As a politician, I would expect her to take advantage of the tragedy. Sharif would be ruing his future, sitting in Saudi Arabia.

  37. almost a kind of needless taunt: “see, you can’t kill me, I dare you.”

    Amardeep, it might have worked as a taunt – but I saw the clip in which she says it (and she may have said it in more than one interview) – it sounded more like a plea than a taunt when she said it.

    But it certainly was irresponsible, given that the threats had been made – to try to go in a huge (10 km + long) processional cavalcade – attempting to replicate the CJ’s trip from Islamabad to Lahore back in the summer – and show herself as being just as popular. Many of those killed were plainclothes and uniformed, policemen and security men, (and one assumes) intelligence men – as well as her own ‘private’ bodyguard types – and some journalists covering the event. There’s no way such a long cavalcade could have been totally secured, though I’m sure they tried.

  38. @46: C’mon, you know Malkin hates brown people (got to be hard to look in the mirror every day, for her).

  39. It is interesting to see the response to the bombings. I don’t think Benazir is responsible for what the “bombers” did. It is like blaming the victim..