Econ 101 Works… Eventually

With all the brouhaha about outsourcing last election season, I thought this article provided an interesting snapshot of what techie outsourcing looks like today –

Silicon Valley has helped power India’s outsourcing boom by shifting technology jobs to that country. Three months ago, Munjal Shah reversed a bit of that shift.

Shah, who leads a California start-up called Riya Inc., had opened an office in India’s technology capital of Bangalore in 2005, hiring about 20 skilled software developers. The lure was the wage level: just a quarter of what experienced Silicon Valley computer engineers make.

Then Indian salaries soared. Last year, Shah paid his engineers in India about half of Silicon Valley levels. By early this year, it was 75%.

75% of an average US Engineering salary goes FAR in India. Nevertheless, the big picture point remains true — salaries eventually normalize around productivity and, given the fiercly competitive global tech market, infinite pools of 3rd world workers aren’t exactly lying in wait (of course, the right policy mistakes can make this happen, but let’s not go there for now). It is, on the otherhand, pretty impressive and a testament to modern tech + capitalism that it’s happened this fast.

My company, Roundbox, has some similar, interesting anecdotal experience with outsourcing…

We started our operations ~3 yrs ago with an offshore office in India which was ultimately staffed up to about 10-15 folks. And, we also eventually closed down the office for very similar reasons to Munjal Shah @ Riya and the reasons documented in the article —

  • Cost: It wasn’t much cheaper than having folks in the US. As a venture funded startup, much of the attraction to outsourcing was, obviously, about getting the most mileage out of precious working capital. And it was getting more and more expensive every 6 months –
    Nasscom puts wage inflation in its industry at 10% to 15% a year. Some tech executives say it’s closer to 50%. In the U.S., wage inflation in the software sector is under 3%, according to Moody’s Economy.com.

    …an average $5,000 annually for a new engineer with little experience — the experienced engineers Silicon Valley companies covet can now cost $60,000 to $100,000 a year. “For the top-level talent, there’s an equalization,”

  • Churn: The massive boom in Desi tech meant that turnover rates for employees was becoming greater than even Silicon Valley. For complex tech, turnover KILLS.
    Pervasive Software Inc. in Austin opened a Bangalore unit in 2004 and hired 45 people. But soon its annual turnover was more than 25%, says the company’s CEO, John Farr. The company kept investing in training workers only to see them leave.
  • Name Brand Hiring: For a variety of reasons, there’s a strong preference for namebrand MNC’s amongst the tech talent in India and, as a new and thus unknown tech company, we couldn’t compete against the Wipro’s, Google’s & Microsoft’s when it came to hiring. In the US, on the other hand, quite a few young, ambitious folks would rather try their luck with a startup vs. going to IBM. Eventually, perhaps, Indians will feel, as their silicon valley brothren do, that “I can get a job at IBM anyday” but until that level of security is felt in their bones, risk tolerances won’t be where it is here in the valley.
  • Quality: Perhaps most controversially, the quality just wasn’t all there. Many of the folks were no doubt fantastic, but too many of the famously touted “500,000 tech grads a year” were a notch or 2 below many vo-tech educated folks here in the US.
    In a 2005 study, McKinsey & Co. estimated that just a quarter of India’s computer engineers had the language proficiency, cultural fit and practical skills to work at multinational companies.
    But in our case, it wasn’t just language but actual core computer science. The ones who were truly as good as the folks we had in the US could easily command… a US-level salary. Return to square #1.
  • Communication: Famously, outsourcing works great if your product specifications are tightly defined, with crisp clear milestones and well understood, a priori, secondary requirements. Just about every one of these simply ain’t the case in a startup tech environment. When your requirements can’t be clearly stated, management overhead grows exponentially… and once again, in a startup, lack of overhead is supposed to be your competitive advantage –
    Kana Software in Menlo Park has one engineering manager for every 25 to 50 engineers, but it found it needed one for every five to 10 engineers it employed in the Indian city of Chennai.

While there are tons of examples otherwise…. at least in our limited experience, outsourcing to India didn’t work out. Perhaps there were little tactical things we could have twittled with to eventually find an arrangement that could work but, alas, we didn’t have time….

Moral of the story – global trade and old fashioned econ 101 has created a pool of folks in India who make some pretty serious dough – even by US standards.

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96 thoughts on “Econ 101 Works… Eventually

  1. Butter Chicken: are there any other sources of capital beyond VC for R&D intsensive firms that won’t show a profit beyond 5 years? Can one go to Citibank? If not, then I would say that my statement is well supported by an analysis of the portfolio investments made by VCs with India ops. And anecdotally by the calls that I get from my friends at VCs and corporate venture arms who ask people like me to come over to instigate deal flow because nothing is happening organically locally.

    My own experience isn’t quite that stark. I know quite a few guys in Bangalore who are working in startups, are starting their own companies, etc. And I am talking about hard-core engineering rather than pure BPO. Of course, the number of startups in India is nowhere near silicon valley’s numbers, for various reasons which will probably surface in another thread soon enough … 🙂 Perhaps the reason why VCs cannot find deals to fund is because they aren’t looking in the right places, or aren’t making themselves available easily. Remember that engineers in Des still do not have too many examples of ‘couple-of-guys-with-an-idea-raised-n-million-and-went-IPO’ to follow. In any case, I would hesitate to talk be dismissive in the style of – ‘for all the talk of tech innovation etc’

    And the number of patents filed by Indian tech firms (i.e. as opposed to MNC subsidiaries based in India) is miniscule.

    I do take strong issue with your assertion that patents are a good, or even reasonable, measure of innovation. If OTOH you are saying that Indian companies have not learned how to play the game by not filing for enough patents, that may be true.

    What’s the difference between Butter Chicken and Chicken Tikka BTW ?

    Gabroo Punjabis eat butter chicken (and wash it down with IMFL whiskey), CTM is for effete Britishers … 🙂

  2. Unfortunately, a big mass of the Indian workforce is still in the agro area.

    ???????????

    One day the world will figure out that humans can’t digest plastic and micro-chips and we’ll all get back to agriculture again.

  3. louiecypher, i think you underplayed it if at all.

    conclusive evidence of the above person being a great thinker

  4. And the number of patents filed by Indian tech firms (i.e. as opposed to MNC subsidiaries based in India) is miniscule.

    Yo brotha! You got some numbers to back that up? And if you do, we’d rather see numbers of the kind ‘patents per employee’ or something, not absolute numbers to account for the size of the industry. Plus, a well made point is that the companies might just be waking up to the patent phenomenon and some might consider it an avoidable expense. India is still new to the patent culture.

  5. louiecypher, i think you underplayed it if at all.
    conclusive evidence of the above person being a great thinker

    hey, conclusive evidence of someone being a great conclusive evidencer.

  6. louiecypher, i think you underplayed it if at all. For there are a lot of implications of such an index. what if startups, as perks, also included matchmaking services, or even entire brides.

    Hmmm…given the emerging female deficit, entire brides may be hard to swing. Perhaps polyandry marketed as “Pandava Marriage” will solve the problem without turning saffron balls red with anger or blue without “creative outlet”?

    Join Roundbox geta bride free or something like that. Where to get brides — why outsource that as well.

    We might need to outsource this to Ukraine. I don’t know about you guys, but I get tons of love mail from Ukrainian women I don’t even know. My dravido-lemurian man musk beckons across the steppes of greater scythia…

  7. louiecypher is an extremely perceptive, articulate, single, eligible male (except for his libertarian leanings, but nobody’s perfect), there is no reason to call him the devil or insult him in other ways.

    Haha yeah, I just realized it first hand upon reading this amusing example of what I presume, came out of the “creative outlet” of louiecypher 😛

    “Hmmm…given the emerging female deficit, entire brides may be hard to swing. Perhaps polyandry marketed as “Pandava Marriage” will solve the problem without turning saffron balls red with anger or blue without “creative outlet”?”
  8. louiecypher, people have already beat us to marketing polyandry. it is apparently the world’s most ancient start up.

  9. But I don’t back down from the disproportionate influence of uninformed parents theory.Not until we can send an actual social scientist like Camille out to do a proper study.

    Haha, thanks louciecypher, but I think I’ll pass. The idea of randomizing the marriage market and then sampling this sounds awful.

    She’d love to do it, but her mummy-daddy don’t want her to waste one year roaming around India doing this survey.

    Actually, they would probably reserve comment depending on how I pitched it 🙂

    Gabroo Punjabis eat butter chicken (and wash it down with IMFL whiskey), CTM is for effete Britishers … 🙂

    By “butter chicken,” are y’all referring to chicken makahani? I eat CTM, largely because it is easier to de-ghee it (I couldn’t transliterate “ghee’o”). Does that make me an effette Briton? >:(

  10. By “butter chicken,” are y’all referring to chicken makahani?

    Yes.

  11. Hmmm…given the emerging female deficit, entire brides may be hard to swing. Perhaps polyandry marketed as “Pandava Marriage” will solve the problem without turning saffron balls red with anger or blue without “creative outlet”?
    We might need to outsource this to Ukraine. I don’t know about you guys, but I get tons of love mail from Ukrainian women I don’t even know. My dravido-lemurian man musk beckons across the steppes of greater scythia…

    I don’t know what’s in the air, but the repartee on SM has become very delightful (if a little snarky otherwise). From “barby girl” Divya to Manju’s swipe at Salil:

    You had your chance with me, and you blew it.
    so, what are you complaining about, salil?

    At least on the web, your wit determines your playa quotient, rather than your job with Infy or IBM.

  12. A question:

    Lots of people pointed out the inflationary salary trend as well as the long-term equalization of factor prices among countries well-entrenched in global trade. Some argue that the trickle-down effect will eventually make the entire economy better-off (increase consumer demand/consumption leads to more job creation and so on, sort of a Keynesian story), while others will say that the trickle-down effect is slow/minimal, that the rural sector is entirely excluded from the job market because of various infrastructural bottlenecks and that the upper classes are (in countries like India) very adept at cronyism and preserving their monopoly on the command of resources. In fact, some economists have tried to show that in India, the concentration of wealth has increased and the wealth disparity has increased even between the very rich and the well-off (i.e. the middle classes).

    What do you think will happen in India (especially the more knowledgeable social scientists among us) in the next 10 years: upward mobility beyond a secular rate of growth or a concentration of wealth scenario?

  13. What do you think will happen in India (especially the more knowledgeable social scientists among us) in the next 10 years: upward mobility beyond a secular rate of growth or a concentration of wealth scenario?

    LeftyProf has been writing about this… it seems like the bubble has to burst sometime, just as it did hear. It can only go so high before it no longer pays to go ‘offshore’, or another shore is cheaper…

  14. Gabroo Punjabis eat butter chicken (and wash it down with IMFL whiskey), CTM is for effete Britishers … 🙂
    By “butter chicken,” are y’all referring to chicken makahani? I eat CTM, largely because it is easier to de-ghee it (I couldn’t transliterate “ghee’o”). Does that make me an effette Briton? >:(

    Camille, but ‘ghee’o’ is the essence of ‘saada’ punjab, right after patiala peg, that is. But just for attempting to transliterate ‘ghee’o’, your effete card is revoked … 🙂

  15. What do you think will happen in India (especially the more knowledgeable social scientists among us)

    I would not claim to have much knowledge as a social scientist or an economist since I am neither. But let me take a shot still. Economic models predict that when a country goes through a period of rapid economic growth, there is an initial phase of increased disparity and concentration of wealth (this is where India is today). This is when there is creation or wealth but there has not been enough time for it’s disbursement. However, the models also predict that gradually as long as the wealth stays put in the same broad geographical region it gradually makes it to the market (think Ambani building his mansion, someone gets richer – that person then spends his new wealth and so on). Thus over time the trickle down effect does indeed happen, how can it not unless you are kanjoosimal and lock it all away doing Puja in front of the tijori. However, how long it takes for this wealth takes to make it’s way back to the market depends on not only the social situation and spending habits but also on Governmental policies, taxation, etc. In India we have not seen much in terms of Government efforts for reducing the disparity. If the disparity increases to too large an extent or the time it takes for the disbursement is too large, there is a very real danger of social unrest which I think if not rectified, India could move towards. This is what rahul breifly alluded to a few posts back. Thus while I am not too worried about the disparity, I am a little concerned with Govt. measures for wealth distribution. For eg, in India a salary of 10lakh or more I think is the same salary for everyone whether you make 10 lakh or 10 billion. Similarly, there are not enough welfare schemes, job creation is only starting to happen in low end skills, etc.

    As is always the case, there are economists who disagree with this model but to me it seems quite rational when you come to think of it. Where would India go – I guess it’s a little early to say, depends on what the next election brings to the center. Some acts like the NREGA are quite profound in the impact they can create but so far leave a lot to be desired implementation wise.

  16. For eg, in India a salary of 10lakh or more I think is the same salary for everyone whether you make 10 lakh or 10 billion.

    I mean Taxation is the same, I think. Someone who understands Indian tax laws better could throw light on this.

  17. Ardy,

    I think the highest tax bracket is 30% and there is a 10% surcharge if an individual’s salary exceeds a certain limit. I can put more details later.

  18. This is not an analysis of India, but an Israeli economist has studied career choices of young men w.r.t marriage:

    The results show that labor market decisions are strongly influenced by their returns in the marriage market. If there were no returns to career choices in the marriage market, men would tend to work less, study less, and choose blue-collar jobs over white-collar jobs. These results suggest that the existing literature underestimates the true returns to human capital investments by ignoring their returns in the marriage market. In addition…. marriage may make low wage men more serious about their careers, marriage has little effect on high wage men who are already highly motivated.

    And from today’s dispatch from the Annals of Completely Random Research:

    Mustache Fashion Covaries with a Good Marriage Market for Women

    It was predicted that men would emphasize sexually-selected traits, including mustaches, beards, and sideburns, when they have difficulty obtaining spouses.
  19. “Boy works for Cisco/MSFT/TI/GE/Google” is more likely to get the lemurian head waggle of approval than “Boy works at Riya/Roundbox”.

    louiecypher, that’s not nice. You know Vinod is highly marriageable.

  20. louiecypher, that’s not nice. You know Vinod is highly marriageable.

    Vinod has nothing to worry about, I’ve never met the guy but I doubt that he will be going on a wife hunting safari in the desh anytime soon. And desi parents in the US are different, working for MSFT/Cisco (and probably Google two years from now)here is alot like being a “B” student. They know startups is where it’s at

  21. Even though I work with a startup that doesn’t even have the prestige of being in tech, I told my mommy that in terms of women/girls/”damsels” (to use the term from Dalrymple’s “City of Djinns” from the “old country,” I was only interested in Stephanians–presto, still a bachelor. 😉

  22. And I bet the guys who marry these “ugly” women are not “all that” to begin with. At most they are probably just ordinary looking, I doubt many would be “hot”.

    Yes, but what’s that got to do with it? What a man can buy on the marriage market with money and a high-status job, a woman can too. The possible ugliness is just to make the point clear.


    I’m with louiecipher. How can one anyone, esp. male (in a place like India) not be mindful of how they are going to look on the marriage market when they make their initial career decisions?

    More generally, in all cultures, success is sexy and everyone understands that at some level. This explicitly or implicitly influences many career choices of singles. And when I say sucess, I don’t necessarily mean monetary success.

  23. Companies which come to India “just” for saving $$ don’t do well in general. The quality of employees you get is proportional to the salary you are willing to pay them. From my personal experience companies like TI/Google/MSFT/Veritas which have done well in India are the one who are in India not just cost savings, but for the talent. There are people who are very much willing to work in a startup, atleast in IIT’s. But you need to pay them at least as much as what the established companies are willing to pay them.

  24. 73 Kurma:

    success is sexy and everyone understands that at some level. This explicitly or implicitly influences many career choices of singles. And when I say sucess, I don’t necessarily mean monetary success.


    Absolutely–seizing power also helps. Send lawyers, guns, and money, baby!!!

  25. “I’m with louiecipher. How can one anyone, esp. male (in a place like India) not be mindful of how they are going to look on the marriage market when they make their initial career decisions?”

    Ummm maybe not. I know so many brilliant students who choose to study pure mathematics and theoretical physics over MBA and S/W jobs.

  26. My fulltime job is at a company called Sapient and 3,500 of our (5500) staff is in India between Gurgaon and Banglore

    Hey Binoy … Sapient Bangalore reprazent !!! A shout out to all the other sapientoids 🙂

    And whats with all the desh hating? I think most of the Indians would choose to stay in India if they got the same dollar pay converted into rupees. That is a lot of money. I mean even with the current wage levels the attraction for permanent immigration or relocation is waning. Most of my friends and colleagues have no intention of leaving the desh. The current model of getting a chance to go onsite and save some moolah and comeback before you get homesick works best for us. There definitely is a great interest in being well travelled but eventually we all want to come back to our “home” office because we love it warts and all.

  27. When talking about the woes of startup company’s ability to hire in India, what is the value-proposition that it is bringing to the new hire? In the US some of the reasons to join a startup is to learn a lot of new skills in a short period of time along with the hope that the stock options will materialize into something big to be an instant millionaire. I am not sure if they offer such incentives to folks in India. If they are not provided such incentives, any graduate would like to join a “Name-Brand” company to increase his/her marketability in the future. In addition, we are talking about global capitalism. If cost was the initial driver to go to India, it will correct itself if such incentive does not exist in the future.

  28. Ummm maybe not. I know so many brilliant students who choose to study pure mathematics and theoretical physics over MBA and S/W jobs.

    One can’t have success in these fields? Anyways, math and theo. phys. may be more sexy than MBA to some potential partners – certainly more than S/W in the US. How often do you see a theoretical physicist embarrassed about their profession? If anything, there is a fair amount of showing off, although in a fashion less obvious to people not in science.

    Absolutely–seizing power also helps. Send lawyers, guns, and money, baby!!!

    Sure, wherever there is a dictatorship/ martial rule, the military is one of the top career choices of young men. Lawyers? Only in the US are lawyers needed for seizing power.

  29. Anyways, math and theo. phys. may be more sexy than MBA to some potential partners – certainly more than S/W in the US.

    Physics or Math careers make no money except for academics which usually is non research based anyways (or I guess tuition classes). Thus this does not hold if you are supporting the belief that certain career choices are made keeping prospective partners in mind. If that was my sole intention, I would choose something with a large market value, not something considered eccentric and financially non lucrative.

  30. @kurma

    When someone decides to make a career in Math or Physics, then the prospect of attracting a better mate is hardly on people’s mind. I was trying to point out that there a lot of people in India who do not consider potential marriage prospects while choosing their careers. And I choose these two subjects as an example because if you are going into these fields for reasons other than genuine interest, then you are pretty much hosed.

  31. was wondering if any of you have connections with the SalaryBase.com folks. Would be rather interesring to see the US tech India vs. US stats on some key positions

  32. if you are going into these fields for reasons other than genuine interest, then you are pretty much hosed.

    You might want to take a closer look at who’s the most in demand on Wall Street nowadays.

  33. “You might want to take a closer look at who’s the most in demand on Wall Street nowadays. “

    Didn’t I say Pure Mathematics in my previous post? Oops My bad.

  34. Firms like D.E. Shaw primarily hire people with purely Mathematics background, the highest paid hedge fund manager James Simon has both a bachelors and Phd in mathematics earned about $1.5 billion I think in 2005-2006. Mathematics is in high demand like Kurma noted.

  35. Sure Mathematics in high demand, but not really in large numbers like those with software skills. I am not arguing that a few brilliant graduates make it to Wall Street. But what are the odds of the average Math graduate making a ton of cash akin to those in software?? And for those engineers who crave the big bucks on Wall Street schools like Columbia and UC Berkeley offer graduate programs in Financial Engineering. A lot of the financial engineering students I know are students with EE and CE backgrounds.

  36. Firms like D.E. Shaw primarily hire people with purely Mathematics background, the highest paid hedge fund manager James Simon has both a bachelors and Phd in mathematics earned about $1.5 billion I think in 2005-2006. Mathematics is in high demand like Kurma noted.

    Yes, pure physicists and mathematicians are very employable by virtue of being hella smart. DE Shaw is paying these guys to work as applied mathematicians/quant jocks…not explore something because it is “beautiful” as pure mathematicians are wont to do. I have friends from school who did PhDs in theoretical physics and now work for strat consulting firms making pretty, pretty powerpoint and getting paid $300k a year. The question is what are the employment prospects for people in their fields of study in India. I would contend that up through the 70s there would have been less parental opposition to pursuing pure math & physics because engineering would not necessarily have provided a significantly better livelihood. My earlier comments regarding risk aversion were specific to the choice of large public company over startup in India

  37. I will make pretty powerpoints for 300K, jokes apart I was responding to spark’s comments about people choosing mathematics as career options being hosed.

  38. I will make pretty powerpoints for 300K, jokes apart I was responding to spark’s comments about people choosing mathematics as career options being hosed.

    its an awesome arb….be d*mber and make more $.

  39. I am not sure if it is necessarily be dumber or dumb down your knowledge, whatever it is it is lucrative

  40. I am not sure if it is necessarily be dumber or dumb down your knowledge, whatever it is it is lucrative

    the beautiful thing is that you dont need a phd in physics to do those jobs. you can be a dmb@ss and make a d!sproportionate v!g for $h!twrk.

  41. d*mb@ss and make a d!sproportionate v!g for $h!tw*rk.

    Puliogre, man, for g*d’s s@k3, use something other than shift and the top row of keys 🙂

  42. @ 87 by louiecypher

    Yes, pure physicists and mathematicians are very employable by virtue of being hella smart. DE Shaw is paying these guys to work as applied mathematicians/quant jocks…not explore something because it is “beautiful” as pure mathematicians are wont to do. I have friends from school who did PhDs in theoretical physics and now work for strat consulting firms making pretty, pretty powerpoint and getting paid $300k a year

    well considering this blog-post about outsourcing and the above comment abt physicists working in wall street here is an interesting news article from the news-tab abt the concern of physicists’ postion being “outsourced”