398 thoughts on “Live Blogging the 2006 midterm election results”

1. Circus:

   To force Bush to change the policy, tonight has to be a thumping win for blues which it doesn’t seem to be. It is disappointing that even in this sorry state of affairs the reds are holding their own. What could be the reason for this?

   Actually, even a solid win for the Dems would not necessarily do much to force Bush to change policy. Or, it wouldn’t do any more to force Bush to change policy. Bush can veto any bills that Dems pass to curtail war spending, from a “blunt force” standpoint. I agree, it’s disappointing that the right still holds so much sway. I attribute that to Republicans’ ability to organize, their very consistent messaging, their lightning attacks on any opposition candidates who show a sign of weakness, and on some generally smart strategy.

   I don’t attribute it to some kind of referendum whereby the majority of Americans are held sway by America’s clever conservative foreign, economic, or social policies. That’s a laugh.

2. circus – a couple of things to keep in mind. first, only one-third of the senate seats are up in any given election year, so the picture is necessarily partial. i think the republians will have more vulnerable senate seats in 2008 than they do this year.

   second, the turnover in the house is remarkable — it’s not “slightly” at all. especially given how gerrymandered house districts are. at least as of a couple of weeks ago, 351 out of 435 congressional seats were either uncontested altogether or not highly contested. Of the 60 contested seats that had been polled as of then, 30 leaned strongly towards one party’s candidate or the other. That leaves 30 seats, plus or minus, in which there really have been serious races.

   (of course, one can’t beat the daily show for midterm elections 101. even in a bad year, power of incumbency is pretty strong.)

   third, bush is the most stubborn person on the planet. none of this is about getting him to change his policy, it’s about limiting the damage he can do and ensuring some accountability and oversight.

3. It is disappointing that even in this sorry state of affairs the reds are holding their own.

   No matter what happens in the Senate

   as a friendly neighbor looking in, i am surprised the decisions on the house seem to be passing under the radar. comment?

4. they just don’t seem to stand for anything as a party to me except be a reaction to the republican’s action (however misguided i feel that their action is). anyways, that’s just my opinion 🙂

   I suspect that reason for this is that the dems suspect that the majority of the population won’t like what dems stand for. My point is that majority of Americans seem to vote red. Does that mean American’s have become more conservative over the last decade or two? That could only be worse for us desis (or south asians if you prefer).

5. as a friendly neighbor looking in, i am surprised the decisions on the house seem to be passing under the radar. comment?

   The legislative power of the House is limited, in that they can commission reports and hold hearings, but they can’t pass bills that the Senate won’t sign?

6. i guess i should add, the republicans promote their platform very well too. the people i know that have voted republican over the past six years have done so because of the importance of their religious beliefs, their support of the war in iraq and their fear of terrorism. it’s a small sample and voting is a very personal choice, but the republican’s foreign and social policies are why any of my friends vote republican.

7. STATUS CANDIDATE VOTE VOTE % KEY RACE

   Allen
   

   (Incumbent) 1,133,550 50%

   Webb
   

   1,127,537 49%

   98% in.

   http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006//pages/results/states/VA/S/01/index.html

8. I suspect that reason for this is that the dems suspect that the majority of the population won’t like what dems stand for.

   I think it’s more like there is no one solid point of agreement for Dems on things like gay rights, stem cell research, etc. Conversely, it’s far easier for Republicans to come together against those kinds of things.

   My point is that majority of Americans seem to vote red. Does that mean American’s have become more conservative over the last decade or two? That could only be worse for us desis (or south asians if you prefer).

   Oh, you picked up on that, huh? What gave it away? 😀

   Of course America has swung right in the last several years. And now the pendulum is swinging back. Hopefully (as I’ve said in these parts before), it’ll swing so far left that I’ll get a chance to experience the 60’s again. Though I’ll probably be like 40 years old when it happens.

9. Per Virginia state site, Allen lead now down to just over 3,000 votes…

10. Winning the House is a much bigger deal than winning the Senate. The ability to introduce and get votes on bills is what sets the political agenda in Washington, and oversight authority to have hearings and get evidence is a huge deal. Also, the minority party in the Senate has more power than in the House, Senate Republicans as a whole are more moderate, and it takes 60 votes to get anything done in the Senate anyway so crossing 50 votes is important but not quite as consequential as it might seem.

11. CNN is putting Webb ahead!

12. Webb ahead of Allen by 3,000 votes, per CNN.

13. woohoo! webb w/ slight lead

14. lets go webb! lets go webb!

15. cnn now reporting webb 50%, allen 49%, with 99% reporting… this will obviously come down to the recount.

    carville is giddy… says his sources say missouri looking very good for the dems… meaning it would come down to montana in terms of dem control of senate…

16. Does that mean American’s have become more conservative over the last decade or two?

    well if you look at history, things go in cycles. the roaring twenties were followed by the great depression, the post-war fifties were followed by the free wheeling sixties. the nineties was an economically booming time, and now in the new millennium (2000s? is that what we call them?), we are in a time consumed by terrorism. so i don’t know if america has become more conservative, but the hot button issues in our society right have a religious slant to them, which brings out the “traditional” side in people.

17. oh, don’t lose heart yet! From the VA site:

    Totals 1,114,969 49.47% G F Allen 1,111,806 49.33% J H Webb Jr 24,907 1.11% G G Parker 2,225 0.10% (IG) Write Ins

    2,253,907 Votes Cast 2386 of 2443 Precincts Reporting

18. as a friendly neighbor looking in, i am surprised the decisions on the house seem to be passing under the radar. comment?

    I agree hairy_d. I think it’s very important/exciting that the great John Conyers and Henry Waxman will be able to control their respective committees and finally be able to perform the check/balance functions that they’re supposed to.

19. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006//pages/results/states/VA/index.html

    Webb is slightly leading with 99%reported. I definitely think this one’s headed for a recount.

20. Winning the House is a much bigger deal than winning the Senate.

    Not true! The Senate gets to confirm judges and other appointees, which is a huge deal in my book, especially if Bush gets another vacancy on the Supreme Court to fill.

21. Another win for the Abhi machine, this time across state lines — the abortion ban ballot initiative in South Dakota goes down in flames.

22. Does that mean American’s have become more conservative over the last decade or two?

    Since Nixon and it hasn’t cooled since.

23. http://sbe.vipnet.org/nov2006/l_02.htm

    hey, might be a stupid question, but why is there a discrepancy between the virgina state election board’s numbers and what CNN’s numbers are reporting?

    Where does CNN get its numbers from?

24. my understanding is that while it’s technically true that only the house gets to introduce bills, in practice the senate will often author their own version of a bill, or even initiate new legislation which is then co-sponsored by someone in the house… it comes down to a formality.

25. Another win for the Abhi machine, this time across state lines — the abortion ban ballot initiative in South Dakota goes down in flames.

    🙂

    ahhh.

    The VA race is too close to call. The VA site has Webb trailing by less than 2000 votes (1757 as of this moment, with a few precincts still waiting to report in). This is definitely going to the recount.

    In TN, Shelby County (my home ground) is still counting votes. That one is close, too, though not nearly like VA. Ford is trailing Corker, but not a single Shelby County vote is in yet. Not sure what’s up with that, either?

26. According to CNN, Talent’s lead in Missouri is down from 8% to 4%. Tester is well ahead in Montana.

27. hell yeah baby! GO DEMS!!! go to hell maccaca!

28. Down with Conrad Burns!

    Montana November 08, 2006 – 12:02AM ET (i) = incumbent U.S. Senate – 163 of 867 Precincts Reporting Name Party Votes Pct Tester, Jon Dem 55,807 55.79 Burns, Conrad (i) GOP 42,071 42.06

29. from kos.

    Allen (R) 1,138,676 Webb (D) 1,141,052

30. Webb pulls ahead with 2370 votes ahead. But wont be clear for 2 weeks atleast.

    Salil, There is definately hope. !!!!!!

31. The Senate gets to confirm judges and other appointees, which is a huge deal in my book, especially if Bush gets another vacancy on the Supreme Court to fill.

    That’s a fair point — I’d be the last person to soft pedal this issue. But to some extent, progressives have placed too much stock in the courts without having durable political majorities to sustain the litigation victories. Need to be thinking a bit more long term about all of this — maybe a 15-20 year time horizon — and I’m happy to have a foothold in the House to lay the groundwork for races in 2008, 2010, and beyond. Don’t get me wrong — I’d be happy with the Senate too, but that could easily flip in 2008 given the seats that are up that year (a big majority of them are GOP incumbents, as I recall).

    while it’s technically true that only the house gets to introduce bills, in practice the senate will often author their own version of a bill, or even initiate new legislation which is then co-sponsored by someone in the house… it comes down to a formality.

    What you are describing is true about appropriations bills, but my point is that since each house sets its own legislative calendar on all bills, control of the House means that the Democrats can influence what gets voted on and what gets into the media news cycle. Not a formality at all, but a very big deal.

32. go webb, go!!!

33. Essentially if the difference is less than 11,000 votes between Webb & NotMacaca the state pays for the recount and it could take upto 10 days. There will be a recount regardless at this rate. If somehow the difference pulls ahead of 11K and the loser contests he has to pay for the recount. Either ways this is going to be one big mess going into tomorrow unless Allen concedes.

34. he won’t concede, nor should he. the system will work. and we’ll win, either we’ll know about more problems with the system, or we’ll see that it is working right. let the recount begin.

35. Best I can tell from this site, everything is in except for one precinct from Arlington, one from Fairfax, three from Loudon, three from Prince William, and one from Virginia Beach. And maybe one or two from counties with very few people in them.

    Things are looking very good indeed — at least for regulation time.

36. But to some extent, progressives have placed too much stock in the courts without having durable political majorities to sustain the litigation victories.

    trudat. take away roe v wade and put abortion in play again, and i dare say the dems would have been the party in power. law of unintended consequences.

37. the system will work. and we’ll win

    damn cockcy macacas

38. I agree with Razib #134. VA state law provides a recount if the difference is less than 1 percent. I think that’s a good thing.

39. Are there still any Maryland peeps who are worried that Cardin has never actually projected to have been in the lead but has been called as the winner?

40. What you are describing is true about appropriations bills, but my point is that since each house sets its own legislative calendar on all bills, control of the House means that the Democrats can influence what gets voted on and what gets into the media news cycle. Not a formality at all, but a very big deal.

    Yup. 🙂

    The House wins are not trivial at all…in fact, I’d bump up that point on oversight committees and conducting hearings: the Bush administration must tread very carefully from now on, and cover its tracks from the last four years even more than they have already.

    Oh, and hey. Nancy Pelosi is now Speaker of the House. Dubya’s gotta be shitting himself.

41. I see Webb winning. The only counties still reporting, appear to be leaning for Webb.

42. f you maccaca!

43. Also, local news is saying that the Webb/Mac..I mean Allen race is not going to be called tonight.

44. And I think an automatic recount if it’s less than 0.5 percent. But maybe Allen should concede. Maybe the Webb people should make him — after all, we know what the Allen people would do.

45. (m)akaka won.

46. OK can’t do it….can’t stay up anymore. My father has strict instructions to call me and wake me if someone concedes and if the Senate rolls or gets even!! I’m out.

47. Are they counting votes with an abacus in Loudoun? (Hey, it’s possible. We’re still working on indoor plumbing here).

48. Oh, and hey. Nancy Pelosi is now Speaker of the House. Dubya’s gotta be shitting himself.

    I really don’t have much heartburn over democratic control over the house, primarily because the republican party pretty much behaved as spending cash machines (for someone fiscally conservative, its really a crapshoot) and that having a check in balance is good for the country all in all (like Clinton with the Republican congress), but can’t the dems ppick anyone other than Nancy Pelosi (i know, I know, its not happening). I can’t stand that lady (among many politicians from the right and left).

49. I highly recommend those living on the left coast watch the broadcast of Charlie Rose on PBS. There is a lot of great commentary coming from people of varied political stripes. For those who are left leaning, some conservatives present some cogent insight on how it’s not going to be all that easy for the Dems.

50. Are some of those Virginia “precincts” absentee votes? What is the story with absentee and HAVA provisional ballots in Virginia?