One of the scenarios that pessimists foresee for the new century involves a rapid spread of disease due to population growth, habitat erosion, migration, travel and trade. Already this year, the avian flu H5N1 has reached Europe and Africa; its jump-in-progress to human beings has got the Cassandras clucking. Between this, killer mudslides and embryonic civil wars, 2006 is already proving a fine year for catastrophists — and it’s not even two months old.

In the desi-heavy islands of the Indian Ocean, another odd little disease is on the move. Chikungunya is a mosquito-borne infection that produces high fever, rashes, and intense joint pain. It has no known cure, only symptomatic treatment. It was not thought to kill, but since an epidemic broke out a year ago in the French territory of Reunion, it has caused at least 77 deaths.

In Reunion, “chik” has hit 115,000 people out of a total population of 750,000, and the French media are calling the government to task for its passive response to a crisis in an overseas territory/colony. For those who read French, today’s portfolio of stories in Liberation is edifying.

“I’ve never seen people in such pain,” says Dr. Jean-Luc Yvin, chief of internal medicine … [T]he symptoms of “chik,” as it’s now called, have evolved. “In the first phase last March, we were dealing with simple, typical symptoms: fever, joint pain and rashes. Then the epidemic slowed in May, and we were still getting sporadic, typical cases,” Yvin says. Since the end of 2005, when the epidemic flared up, the symptoms have grown richer. The specialist lists them: skin disorders, mouth sores, digestive ulcers… Joint symptoms seem more severe, with full-fledged arthritis in the hands and feet. And complications never previously described in the literature have appeared: encephalitis, myocardia, hepatitis… [my translation]

In nearby Mauritius, chikungunya has made fewer inroads but anxiety is high. There are 1,700 suspected cases so far this year. According to the Mauritius press, political leaders are responding in classic fashion to the threat to public health and to the nation’s large tourism industry:

Prime Minister Navin Ramgoolam denounced foreign press ‘propaganda’ about the virus during a ceremony to mark the 70th anniversary of the [Labour Party]. For his part, Pravind Jugnauth, leader of the [opposition] MSM, was critical of the government, particularly the initiatives of the health ministry in this period of Shiva Maharatree. [my translation]

The Seychelles, Comoros, and Madagascar have all been touched by chik and South Africa, an air gateway to the region, is keeping a close watch. There are also direct flights between Mauritius and Mumbai, Delhi and Chennai.