The latest foreign affairs crisis is the specter of a nuclear-armed Iran. The country broke seals on uranium enrichment facilities this week, making it clear it intends to build nukes. Iran’s mullahcrats sometimes make Kim Jong-Il sound like Mr. Rogers:
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Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, president of Iran, gets fresh with a supporter |
One of Iran’s most influential ruling clerics [Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani] called Friday on the Muslim states to use nuclear weapon against Israel, assuring them that while such an attack would annihilate Israel, it would cost them “damages only”. [Link]Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has described the Holocaust as “a myth” and suggested that Israel be moved to Europe, the United States, Canada or Alaska… Ahmadinejad sparked widespread international condemnation in October when he called for Israel to be “wiped off the map…”
“There is a perception, based on past experience that only when Iran threatens and pushes does the West back off,” he told Reuters. [Link]
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p>Which responsible, nuclear-armed military put nukes in the hands of nutty madrassa grads? Do you even have to ask?
The Iranians turned over the names of their suppliers and international inspectors quickly identified the Iranian centrifuges as Pak-1s, the model developed by Khan in the early 1980s. [Link]The CIA report is the first to assert that the designs provided to Iran also included those for weapons “components.” [Link]
Nature has given it all the raw uranium it needs. With help from the rogue Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, it has acquired uranium enrichment centrifuges and possibly a workable bomb design. And thanks to its ample oil reserves, it has the means to withstand all but the most sweeping and universally enforced sanctions. [Link]
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p>Khan was hardly ‘rogue’:
“One thing we do know is that this was not a rogue operation… How do you get missiles from North Korea to Pakistan? Do you think A.Q. shipped all the centrifuges by Federal Express? The military has to be involved, at high levels.” The intelligence officer went on, “We had every opportunity to put a stop to the A. Q. Khan network fifteen years ago…” “This is not a few scientists pocketing money and getting rich. It’s a state policy.“
“It’s a quid pro quo: we’re going to get our troops inside Pakistan in return for not forcing Musharraf to deal with Khan…”“… [Musharraf] doesn’t know how to be on the American side. The same guys in the I.S.I. who have done this in the last twenty years he expects to be his partners. These are people who’ve done nothing but covert operations: One, screw India. Two, deceive America. Three, expand Pakistan’s influence in the Islamic community. And, four, continue to spread nuclear technology.” He paused. “Musharraf is trying to put out the fire with the help of the people who started the fire,” he said…
“Americans need to know that your government is not only downplaying this but covering it up. You go to bed with our I.S.I. They know how to suck up to you. You let us get away with everything… You have to nip some of these things in the bud…”
“Khan was willing to sell blueprints, centrifuges, and the latest in weaponry. He was the worst nuclear-arms proliferator in the world and he’s pardoned–with not a squeak from the White House…”
A nonproliferation official based in Vienna later explained that Iran has bored two holes near a uranium-mining operation that are “deep enough to do a test”–as deep as two hundred metres. The design of the bomb that could be tested… came from Libya, via Pakistan and A. Q. Khan…
I.A.E.A. inspectors, to their dismay, even found in Libya precise blueprints for the design and construction of a half-ton nuclear weapon. “It’s a sweet little bomb, put together by engineers who know how to assemble a weapon,” an official in Vienna told me. “No question it’ll work. Just dig a hole and test it. It’s too big and too heavy for a Scud, but it’ll go into a family car. It’s a terrorist’s dream…”
“Iraq is laughable in comparison with this issue. The Bush Administration was hunting the shadows instead of the prey…”
“Why hasn’t A. Q. Khan been taken out by Israel or the United States?”…
“Bad as it is with Iran, North Korea, and Libya having nuclear-weapons material, the worst part is that they could transfer it to a non-state group. That’s the biggest concern, and the scariest thing about all this–that Pakistan could work with the worst terrorist groups on earth to build nuclear weapons. There’s nothing more important than stopping terrorist groups from getting nuclear weapons. The most dangerous country for the United States now is Pakistan, and second is Iran.” Gallucci went on, “We haven’t been this vulnerable since the British burned Washington in 1814.” [Link]
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p>Thank you, A.Q. Khan, and thank you, shortsighted U.S. South Asia policy. A.Q. Khan also sold nuke tech to North Korea and Libya, a virtual who’s who of paranoid dictatorships. The one hope, and it’s a slim one, is for internal overthrow of Iran’s government, because the youth of Iran are pro-America.
Finally, I’ve found a pro-America country. Everywhere I’ve gone in Iran, with one exception, people have been exceptionally friendly and fulsome in their praise for the United States, and often for President Bush, as well… Then I stopped to chat with one of the Revolutionary Guards now based in the complex. He was a young man who quickly confessed that his favorite movie is “Titanic.” “If I could manage it, I’d go to America tomorrow,” he said wistfully. He paused and added, “To hell with the mullahs…”Partly because being pro-America is a way to take a swipe at the Iranian regime, anything American, from blue jeans to “Baywatch,” is revered. Young Iranians keep popping the question, “So how can I get to the U.S.?” I ask why they want to go to a nation denounced for its “disgustingly sick promiscuous behavior,” but that turns out to be a main attraction…
One opinion poll showed that 74 percent of Iranians want a dialogue with the United States – and the finding so irritated the authorities that they arrested the pollster. Iran is also the only Muslim country I know of where citizens responded to the 9/11 attacks with a spontaneous candlelight vigil.
Left to its own devices, the Islamic revolution is headed for collapse and there is a better chance of a strongly pro-American democratic government in Tehran in a decade than in Baghdad. [Link]
To prevent nuclear holocaust, the U.S.’ long-standing support for the Pakistani military, a small, dictator-run situation it was comfortable with, and tilt away from India was one of the most asinine foreign policy choices of a generation. And Dubya compounds that error to this very day by refusing to call A.Q. Khan to account and unearth the full scope of his nuke prolif activities.
The rot of Khan
With all due respect, how does it help to do anything to Khan today? The horse left the barn 15 years ago. And it’s not like the US did not know what was going on : Reagan and Bush Senior were unable to certify non-nuke capability status of Pak to the US Congress even in late eighties. They also knew about the joint proliferation of China and Pak to sell nukes to N. Korea and Libya. In fact, when Libya gave up nukes after 9/11, Bushies spun that as evidence that their war policy in Iraq is working. Don’t you think they knew where the Libyan nukes came from? The reason why Khan’s operation was not a rogue one is not only because it had the full support of Pak Military, but also tacit support from Uncle Sam. It’s very rich of the US establishment to now turn around and fix the blame on Pak military : it’s not as if they didn’t/don’t know what’s going on in Pak’s military establishment.
Hard to tell, but it’s certainly up there with Bangladesh – 1971, ‘Nam, Cambodia, Nicaragua and so on where US’s foreign policies have already resulted in genocides.
So you can track down the individual nuclear weapons component sources and shut them down.
AFAIK, U.S. knowledge of the full breadth of Pakistani prolif is recent.
That Ahmadinejad kiss is even more stomach churning than this one . Dont ask, don’t tell I suppose…
Manish, why would you go to a Farsi/Arabic blog to get that pic from? Man, I am impressed by your resourcefulness. The entire LA/Hollywood paparazzi is nothing compared to you dude. Nada.
lover “boy” mullah
i feel iran, pakistan or any country have the right to have nukes…india’s nukes were in the hands of the BJP for a time, and we dont need to get into the BJP’s right wing violent tendencies…AQ khan did nothing wrong, so what he shared secrets and sold ingredients to the bomb, america does it all the time, to india most recently actually, they do it in the open, i don’t buy this PC bullshit about nukes being bad and all that crap, grow up…weapons of mass destruction are a means of deterrence, america will not attack iran if they have one, pakistan wont attack india, get of this hippie non-violent high horse.
the true movement towards nuclear free zones will only occur once Israel acknowledges and destroys its own nuclear program and where the US also agrees to subject its program to scrutiny.
It’s not a question of rights, it’s a question of stability. If you can’t guarantee your military can keep control over the nukes in case of regime change, you’re a menace to the rest of the world. The U.S. has had to chase down loose nukes in the former USSR and has a contingency plan for Pakistan’s nukes as well.
Second, it’s about foreign policy. When your head of state suggests a nuclear first strike against Israel, when your state policy is to support major terrorist groups, you have no business with nukes.
None of which you address. You can bluster all you want about national rights, but preventing a nuclear Iran boils down to self-defense.
What Khan did is akin to handing a high-powered rifle to a drunk man. Criminally irresponsible and threatens the neighbors.
Before Saudi Arabia or Pakistan, Iran was one of the strongest supporters and financiers of Islamic based fundamentalism during the 80’s. The Iranian Pasdaran is the predecessor to the ISI in funding and abetting terrorist operations. Iran blew up the American Embassy in Beirut on April 18th, 1983 using extremist groups as its front and they have long cultivated a strong relationship with them. The Beirut bombing was just one operation in a long series of kidnappings, TWA hijackings and assassinations with Iran’s hand in them. Can you actually trust a country like that that with nuclear weapons? The day a middle eastern Islamic state has nukes Israel is in imminent danger and once Israel and America are done with, India is next.
the muslim countries can’t trust america or israel, they are a threat to them, they must defend themselves…why don’t people see things from the other side…america is the only country to have ever used nukes twice, they are the agressors, the one’s invading countries, so umm duh iran is gonna get a nuke so that they don’t get invaded…india may be next? what the hell are you retarded dude? iran and india have good relations…
The day a middle eastern Islamic state has nukes Israel is in imminent danger and once Israel and America are done with, India is next.
Second, it’s about foreign policy. When your head of state suggests a nuclear first strike against Israel, when your state policy is to support major terrorist groups, you have no business with nukes.
nukes are destructive so is war…america has killed anywhere fron 70 k to 100 k plus people in iraq alone, 100k plus in afghanistan, pretty destructive, when a head of state, eg bush talk about doing this, and unlike iran actually does do it, he should have no right to have nukes, or wmd or be in power, let alone tell others when or when not to have weapons…fuck this double standard bullshit…
everyday middle eastern countries don’t have nukes they are in danger, they must arm themselves.
In that last sentence in my post i admit i made a mistake, i meant it in terms of nukes in the hands of terrorists groups not countries being a danger to India. You are right India and Iran have good relations. Nevertheless why would the arab states have to fear Israel, if they left Israel alone then they would have nothing to fear from them. Israel has only gone to war when it has been directly threatened by its neighbours(e.g the six day war)and yet it gave back some of the lands it had captured. Israel has attacked only when its people have been threatened and if the arab states stopped funding activites that endanger Israelis, relations would improve. You think Israel wants to invade its neighbours? All of Israel’s actions have been to protect its citizens including ‘Wrath of God’ and ‘Spring of youth’. Terrorists need to stop plotting attacks on Israel and then only will there be any hope for peace.
Also there’s no need for language. These are just discussions.
The danger of Iran having nuclear weapons is not that they will use them, because if they do, they know they will be nuked in kind. Nor is it about Iran handing a nuclear weapon over to Hezbollah – they won’t. States do not spend billions of dollars to develop and acquire sophisticated nuclear weapons, only to hand them over to third parties. The biggest danger is that Iran will do what Pakistan has done with tremendous effectiveness – support terrorist groups behind the safety of a nuclear shield. As early as 1987, when Pakistan suspected that India may use its conventional advantage to settle Kashmir on its terms, Islamabad never hesitated to tell India that Pakistan has nukes and will use them. Did India want to risk New Delhi or Bombay for Kashmir? No, and the Pakistanis understood this.
Iran could encourage Hezbollah to carry out more outlandish attacks on Israel, the US, or its interests – comfortable in the knowledge that they would be untouchable.
A number of posts take the U.S. to task for not doing more to stop the Pakistani nuclear program. While many of those criticisms are valid (although they seem to spare the Clinton administration, but that may just be my own bias), the biggest dereliction of duty was by India. It is New DelhiÂ’s responsibility to secure its citizenry. For 20 years, New Delhi did nothing to sabotage the Pakistani program. Nothing to disrupt supplier networks, nothing to deny technical knowledge, or even risking international condemnation like Israel in 1982, and destroying the nuclear infrastructure. Because Indian leadership has traditionally been shortsighted, it was content with releasing a statement from the foreign ministry every now and then, but not doing anything to slow down Pakistani progress. Considering that PakistanÂ’s nukes are entirely Indo-centric, that New Delhi did nothing is criminal, IMHO.
I love what appears to be A.Q Khan’s shy staff photo. Sadly, no candid shots available? lol
KXB,
Brilliant comment, agree with you on both counts. There is no such thing as a “right to nuclear weapons”, let’s not even pretend that all nations are or should be equal. Those who have nukes not only want to keep them but also prevent others from acquiring them because otherwise, their own nukes will become useless. Why India did not destroy the Pak nuke installations, especially after Israel successfully accomplished the 1981 airstrikes to get destroy the Iraqi nukes, is a question that just boggles my mind. That’s when India had everything going for it : conventional superiority, potential support from Israel and the Pakistani-sponsored terrorism in Punjab that could’ve been used as a convenient excuse to retaliate against Pakistan in any fashion. It is especially weird, considering that Indira Gandhi was the PM at that time and she had no hesitation in going after Pak in 1971. Since 1971, she also had the wisdom of having seen Bhutto renege on Shimla Accord. May be her “Secular” cronies were worried about alienating Muslim votebanks, or may be she was threatened by China against such an action. May be she wasn’t convinced that the nuke program actually existed: who knows? In fact, I vaguely remember reading some accounts of Israel making secret overtures to Indira Gandhi for a joint airstrike.
Of course, from Pakistan’s perspective, acquiring nukes is perhaps the highest strategic achievement in their entire history. How they played off US and China against each other while carrying out AQK’s little nuke factory and the proliferation network would make for a fascinating case study for IR wonks. But the cost of India’s inaction against Pak’s nuke programs is being paid by Indians, Amercians and everyone else who have been bearing the brunt of global terrorism springing from Pak’s military-jihadi complex ever since Pak secured itself against the conventional threat under the nuke shield.
Of course, Iran’s nukes will be a threat to everyone else in the world too. Having one nuke-armed Islamic tinpot dictator is trouble enough for the world to deal with. Having another would just make it worse. Having said that, I am not very hopeful about the world’s ability to prevent Iranians from acquiring nukes. Iran is too big and its oil supplies are too critical for an airstrike against its installations. They have the money, skills and the industrial complex to develop nukes if they really want to. What leverage does the world have against Iran if its Mullahcracy wants to acquire nukes at any cost?
Well, we both agree that Khan’s operation wasn’t a rogue one : it was fully supported and operationalized in connivance with Pak’s ruling establishment. In that case, Khan is more likely to be just the geek, providing tech input and advising how it can be used in barter or cash. I doubt if he’d be the one in-charge of running the whole operation. It’d have to be the top brass of Pak military – not even civilian PMs like Bhutto or Sheriff – that knows the full extent of what happened. I think Khan is just a pawn in the whole game, the real people to go after are the top decision makers in Pak military like Mushy and his cronies. If you think about it, just the fact that Mushy and the gang have been able to shield AQK shows you that they are more powerful than AQK, and therefore, they must know more about the prolif.
I doubt it. The entire Pak nuke program, and especially the imports from China into Pak, has been closely watched by the US. In fact, without the tacit approval from the US, Pak could not have possibly acquired nukes. See this, for example: Declassified Documents
Given this, it would be an amazing miracle for the US to miss the outbound exports that continued to take place for well over a decade. Doesn’t pass the smell test.
You are correct. The latest Atlantic Monthly says the CIA has known for at least 18 years.
Sigh
More rhetoric from Iran, claiming to wipe Israel off the face of the earth.