Every Geologist has the same macabre dream. They want to be as close to the fault as possible when the big one hits. Any geologist that tells you different is lying so as not to upset your sensibilities. The first three months of this year I spent nearly every weekend camping in the rugged mountains near the San Andreas Fault while constructing a geological map of the area. On every drive out the professor would smile devilishly and then say “maybe the Big One will hit this weekend.”
Previously I blogged about the extreme dangers of the world’s most unforgiving battlefield, high in the Siachen Glacier near the Line of Control in Kashmir (Manish followed up with some stats). As if the hail of artillery rounds, machine-gun fire, and extreme cold weren’t enough, over the weekend the soldiers manning their outposts had to deal with a massive Earthquake almost directly beneath them. How did those soldiers fair during the Earthquake? That is a secret held close by both sides for good reason. What men with guns can’t dislodge, an Earthquake can manage with ease.
ISLAMABAD: The Army General Headquarters has asked the Ministry of Water and Power to restore power to several sensitive military installations, which collapsed in the earthquake, along the Line of Control (LoC) in Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), a government official told Daily Times.
The Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) was providing electricity to AJK from the Muzaffarabad Grid Station through a single point electricity provision system, while AJK Electricity Board was responsible for power distribution in the area.
The official said that the Muzaffarabad Grid Station supplied electricity to all sensitive military installations and pickets, but the earthquake has completely destroyed the system. [Link]
and on the Indian side:
Twenty-six security personnel, including 21 Army jawans, were killed and scores of others injured as the massive earthquake damaged bunkers and barracks along the Line of Control (LoC) in Baramulla, Kupwara and Poonch districts of Jammu and Kashmir today.
The Army has lost 21 soldiers due to bunkers caving in and damage to barracks along LoC in Rampur, Uri, Baramulla and Tangdhar sectors, a defence spokesman told PTI. [Link]
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p>Keep in mind that whatever military casualties you see reported in the media will be grossly underreported. Now is not the time to tell your enemy how many of your men died along that merciless line. The New York Times recognizes that this shared pain may provide an opening:
The 7.6-magnitude quake sent tremors across much of South Asia and punched through the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir. On Monday, in a gesture of neighborly solidarity remarkable only because of the two countries involved, Pakistan said it would accept an Indian offer of relief.India announced that it would send those items that Pakistan has said it needs: tents, blankets, plastic sheets, food and medicines. India had also offered helicopters to assist with rescue efforts – something that Pakistan has said it badly needs – but on this, Pakistan demurred. There was also no suggestion from Pakistan that it would accept joint military rescue operations.
The Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Tasneem Aslam, emphasized late Monday evening that neither Indian troops nor helicopters would be involved in the relief operation.
And what about this offer which seems almost ridiculous given the rivalry at the LOC:
The Indian foreign secretary, Shyam Saran, told reporters in New Delhi on Monday evening that India had also offered to send relief, perhaps by foot, across the Line of Control, or L.O.C., as it is known here, to villages difficult for Pakistani authorities to reach. Pakistan has not agreed to the proposal.
Here is something else to consider: the response of the respective militaries (Pakistan and India’s) to this environmental disaster, and what the resulting political fallout will be. After Hurricane Katrina I swiftly predicted that the Executive Branch, with the backing of some in Congress, would seek to weaken the Posse Comitatus Act and grant the military greater power within the United States. They could claim that the slow response was due to the military being restrained to act by the law on native soil. I was dead on. The military can do the job faster and better than the local government was the wisdom offered. In Pakistan there can be no debate about whether local government or the military is to blame if the response is inadequate. There is no local government. Any poor response, any ineffective management, and the buck stops at General Musharraf’s desk. Musharraf’s legitimacy stems from the fact that his army is more efficient and less corrupt than Pakistan’s previous elected governments. He enjoys the support of “the people” for this very reason. He gets the job done. This Earthquake has the potential to destabilize his government if the military proves to be incapable. On the other side of the border we see a slightly different situation. The Indian Army has received rave reviews in Indian-administered Kashmir. Granted they have a much smaller problem on their side of the border. From the BBC:
All the locals acknowledge the help of the Indian army in evacuating casualties to hospital. They say more people might have died, had it not been for the army’s help.While I was outside the hospital, I saw a military lorry bringing three injured people for treatment.
However, the Kasmiris are furious with the non-military government. From the same article:
I arrived in this border area of Indian-administered Kashmir to find people in a poor condition after Saturday’s earthquake.They were angry that they had not received any rations for the past three days – not from the authorities, nor from any non-governmental organisations.
Saleem Ahmed, who lost his son, says: “There were 20 bags of rice in a government-owned shop which collapsed. People took away the rice but could not cook it. We couldn’t even salvage a cup.”
He says his family had survived on rain water collected in a juice carton made of paper.
Deja Vu. The sentiments are so similar to what we heard after Hurricane Katrina. So to recap, in Pakistan they are mad at the military (which is by default the government), and in India they are pretty pleased with the military but are angry at the Indian administrators (which is a bad sign if India wants to win the hearts and minds of these Kashmiris).
“Because we are Kashmiris, no one cares for us,” said Khawja Riaz, a 26-year-old, standing in front of a badly damaged mosque in Garkote, its tin roof supported only by a damaged brick column.
Nearly all houses in Garkote village, perched on a hillside 5 km from the Pakistan frontier, have been damaged or destroyed by the quake.
More than 24 hours after the deadly tremors, no aid or relief had reached the village, a story echoed in many other settlements across the badly-hit Uri administrative region. [Link]
Nature cares not for the delicate balance of things along a line it does not recognize.
Fill in any state, regional, caste, religious identity from India here.
“Every Geologist has the same macabre dream.”
Is that so? Then I should only live in places like Istanbul, Japan, Taiwan or deep in the Himalayas. San Andreas would not even cut it. Sure, there is some truth in your assertion.
On the other issue, I would prefer India-Pakistan do a joint rescue operation asap before it is too late. I really hope some bold, fresh approach is taken soon.
Read this article on shared pain – the best example is Greece and Turkey in 1999.
FYI: Pak refuses joint relief operations (ToI)
Bear in mind that the local government in J&K is now run by a party that is not all that friendly to New Delhi. The current CM has attended the funerals of so-called martyrs, but avoids contact with the Indian army. But the way politics works, I can expect to hear this same group start complaining that New Delhi is not keeping them involved in rescue operations.
Abhi: As a seismic/structural engineerin Nuclear Industry for three decades, let me tell you – as we say in seismic community – earthquakes do not kill people, poorly design and built structures kill people – As you know back in 1989, I was in San Franciscio, leaving work to head home, when Loma Prieta hit the Bay Area. IT was not a preety site. San Andreas is highly overdue to shake, and so is Hayward Fault. U C Berkely could be obliterated in matter of seconds if this fault triggers. After Bhuj earthquake in Gujarat, I presented a technical paper in Boston in 2002, on the “MOTHER” of all potential earthquake in USA – The New Madrid -and what we can learn from the Gujarat earthquake. Incidentally Ahmedabad, Gujarat has now best trained SAR (search and rescue team in South Asia. Modi offered help to Mushie, but yet have not heard from him yet. Here is my paper on the Bhuj Earthquake
Yo Dad (Abhi’s Dad) – I should talk to you some time.
kashmiris are one of the better off people compared to biharis, oriyans, uttar pradesh etc. these guys still whine. i think india should let kashmir go. i am sure some some talibanist will take control and screw the kashmiris.
yeah.. kashmiris are the biggest whiners. the people who are complanining are the same people who never helped the Indian adminstration. Why should they expect any help from them now ?
“Gujarat has now best trained SAR (search and rescue team in South Asia. Modi offered help to Mushie, but yet have not heard from him yet”…
May be you are not aware of the algebra of subcontinental secular politics: It’s a communal plan and i don’t think the secular congress party or mushie will be taking help from modi to save the supremely secular people of kashmir.
“yeah.. kashmiris are the biggest whiners. the people who are complanining are the same people who never helped the Indian adminstration. Why should they expect any help from them now ?”
Look they are Indians, and I never thought that in a democratic India, to get help you need to constantly wear your patroitism as a badge.
Even in the case of Pakistan, there is a shared history, shared families, and shared heritage. I am little disappointed in Pakistani Government, but let India do not fall into that myopic trap.
The next one could easily be few hundred kilometers east to this one. Think clearly.
In general the kashmiris have better socio-economic condition when compared to orissa, bihar, uttar pradesh, madhya pradesh, jharkhand,etc so I have no problem with the central government helping out UP oriya bihar etc more than kashmiris in the long run. But immidiate ground reality is that there is a life/death situation created b/c of a natural disaster so why shouldnt the central government help them?
Pakistani arrogance: No need for Indian helicopters: Pak PM
24 hrs after the EQ, Mushie was begging on CNN for helicopters.
Looks like someone deleted Abhi’s contact info (indirectly through Yo Dad)….hmmmm…wonder y??? But dude, I don’t get why you removed his paper????
I deleted my Dad’s contact info so people won’t crank call his house. I planned on uploading his paper as a .pdf when I get home and have time to do so.
Apart from the urge to help, such events tell us some truths about ourselves. For example if the Tsunami felt more personal to you than Hurricane Katrina, that ‘ordering’ may or may not conflict with the passport you carry.
I’m not suggesting that we must ‘choose’ one tragedy over the other, but sometimes we cant help feeling more for one situation over the other.
Where i am going with this, is that this is an oportunity for those who espouse a Kashmir-at- any-cost policy to be to honestly evaluate the place kashmiris hold for us, as opposed to say the Tsunami affected down south.
This might be India’s last chance to show kashmiri’s that they are as Indian as any of us. For those who dont care to do that, maybe you don’t really care for Kashmiris, beyond wanting to show up Pakistan. For a nation that has its sights on catching up with China, is one upping Pakistan worth any more Kashmiri blood, or Indian or Pakistani for that matter ?.
“why shouldnt the central government help them?”
if you go back and read the articles on earthquake in gujarat, the central government was not helping the gujaratis either (that time the pro hindu bjp was in power and they did not care about the hindus in gujarat). now the central government is run by the secular (pro-muslim) congress. pakistani government is also not helping their citizens. does it mean pakistani government hates muslims? the bottom line is: in third world countries, government does not care about people.
“in third world countries, government does not care about people”
That may be true, but it is the ultimate cop-out. Uri is as much India as is Delhi or Bangalore or Calcutta.
They maybe, some disagreements in the Indian family, but this is not the time for any questions.
On the other hand – we may talk of corruption and lack of building laws. Does your home town/ town/ ancestoral have any building retrofitted? If in Central/ South India, is your town prepared for another tsunami.
Is everything in South Asia an afterthought.
PS: I am getting really irritated about Pakistani Goevernemt not availing Indian offer for helicopters. The welfare of the people is being compromised.
Recovering liberal, Please tell me how the central government was not helping out during the earth quake in bhuj under BJP.
BTW it was UPA government that did a reasaonably well job in the tsunami crisis, where the indian victims were mostly hindus and tribals. BJP also did the right thing by not making political milage about the shortcomings that were their in the tsunami relief effort.
I am not a fan of the indian muslim’s attitude towards india and indic culture with that said I still cant see your logic why the government of india at state and central level should chose to ignore this issue and then hide behind a veil and say “in third world countries, government does not care about people”
guru gulab,
you should read the bbc coverage on gujarat earthquake and there you will read lots of complaints about how government did nothing for a long time. as for tsunami, there were tons of complaints about government apathy.
kush tandon,
when it was flooding in mumbai last month, citizens were left to their devices and there was little government help. i am not saying government should not help. it’s nice to wish that every third world country has an effective and responsive government (like the ones in western europe) but it just doesn’t happen in third world countries. what i am trying to say is that kashmiris are not singled out for this type of apathetic treatment. if you say government doesn’t care in times of emergency, almost all indians who have faced an amergency situation (not just kashmiris) will agree.
Okay… but thats not what you said before. You said:-
You have issue with kashmiris, not that there is anything wrong with that. Many Indians have a lot more issues with Islam as a whole and its portrayal in Indian history and its present trajectory, but this is one of those events where you have ignore these facts and work on solving the problem at hand. And that is what the Government in India is doing. As far as the whiners are concerned including those who whined after Gujrat and those who are whining after Kashmir incident, they can whine all they want. They dont help themselves or those around them.