The F-16 debate to date has focused on the military balance between India and Pakistan. Many SM commenters have noted that even though India will be allowed to buy U.S. arms, it’s unlikely to do so because the U.S. has been an unreliable supplier.
Today a NYT story took the opposite tack: F-16 sales to India are good because they’ll keep the production line open in case the U.S. military ever places another order.
“The reopening of sales to Pakistan and the opening of sales to India extends the life of the production line, the Fort Worth operation and the entire F-16 supply chain throughout the country. It also provides the Air Force with a warm production line should it want extra F-16’s.”
Lockheed is talking like a business, not saber-rattling like the U.S. government:
“If India’s requirements are beyond any existing fighters, we are prepared to make upgraded F-16’s to India’s specifications with complete transfer of technology,” Mike Kelly, a Lockheed senior executive said in an interview last month with the Press Trust of India, a New Delhi news agency. “We have, in the past, taken up building of such exclusive fighters for the U.A.E. and we are prepared to manufacture F-16’s to India’s special requirements.”
India already writes software for Boeing and Lockheed :
Boeing… is already relying on Indian companies to provide software for its new commercial jet, the 787 Dreamliner…
The U.S. as hopeful suitor: it’s a newly respectful tone in the media’s handling of this story.India wants a tech transfer agreement rather than an outright sale:
India… is proposing that it buy 18 F-16’s outright and that the remaining 108 be built in India under a licensing agreement… Under these arrangements, the F-16 is mostly built in the United States, then broken down. The pieces are then shipped overseas and reassembled… “India wants to do what China has done,” said Stephen P. Cohen, a senior fellow and South Asian specialist at the Brookings Institution, a liberal Washington research group. “They want to take a technology, improve it and then build it themselves. They’ve already done this with ships and now they want to do it with aircraft from the U.S.”
The F-16 ‘sale’ to Pakistan is actually a free gift:
Because of Pakistan’s meager economy, $3 billion in American aid will be provided to buy the F-16’s. India, by contrast, has enough money to pay for a large order of fighters itself.
If India does buy from the U.S. rather than France or Russia, the smart money is on the cheaper F-16s rather than F-15s or F/A-18s:
The Boeing F/A-18, which is used exclusively by the Navy and Marines, is capable of shipboard landings. India, which has just completed building its own carrier vessels, may find this feature attractive, but the price of $50 million for each plane could stand in the way. The top-of-the-line F-15, which costs around $65 million a plane, may also prove too costly to buy in large numbers.
Some facts that are not right in the article above:
1) India has just started to build its own “Air Defense Ship”. It has one air craft carrier in service, the Viraat, and another one coming in a few years from Russia (Admiral Gorkhshov). The article above says India has completed building their carriers, which is false. Also India has no need for a naval strike aircraft as it has a large order of Mig 29K’s for its new carriers. A naval variant of its LCA fighter is on the drawing board too.
2) India is not interested nor has a requirement for a fighter like the F-15. It already has the Sukhoi 30, which is better if not equal to the current F-15s (In the same class). The requirement is a Multi role strike fighter. F-16s, F-18s, Mirage 2000s, Mig 29s, and Gripens fall in this category.
An Indian Government panel has recommended that Air India purchase a multi billion dollar package that includes 777s, 737s, and the new 787 dreamliners .This goes back towards the software development. You get business, you give business back. Japan, who is involved in manufacturing certain technologies for the 787 has put a confrimed order for the aircraft. The panel for India so far has made a recommendation, has not put an order in.
If India gets full manufactruing license of the f-16 as a block 70 (or for some reason go for the F-18, which is very cabaple too) would stand to benefit. If India does not get transfer of technology, it is almost certain that the Mirage 2000 will be purchased, a support and logistics infrastructure already exists for it.